Strike on Kharkiv Urban Center: A Russian "Molniya" drone struck near residential high-rises in the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kharkiv. (RBK-Ukraine, 18:48, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Active KAB Sorties: The Ukrainian Air Force confirmed fresh launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. (PS ZSU, 18:57, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Claimed Russian Advance (Bakhmut Sector): Pro-Russian sources claim the "liberation" of Minkivka (northwest of Bakhmut). (Colonelcassad, 18:33, UNCONFIRMED/LOW CONFIDENCE).
Tactical UXO Neutralization: UAF FPV operators successfully detonated an unexploded Russian FAB-500 bomb located near Russian infantry positions in the Kostyantynivka direction. (Butusov Plus, 18:41, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Propaganda Claims (Pokrovsk/Mirnohrad): Russian "Center" Group forces released footage claiming the destruction of UAF armored vehicles and personnel in the Pokrovsk and Mirnohrad sectors, as well as the Dnipropetrovsk border region. (Operatsiya Z, 18:32, LOW CONFIDENCE).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Status: Russian forces have introduced the "Molniya" drone into urban strike patterns in Kharkiv city. This indicates a shift toward low-cost, precise harassment of residential areas alongside standard KAB strikes.
Weather: Kharkiv/Vovchansk is currently -8.9°C with 0% cloud cover. These conditions provide maximum thermal contrast for Russian ISR and facilitate high-precision KAB delivery.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Status: High kinetic activity persists in the Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka directions. The reported Russian movement toward Minkivka suggests an attempt to widen the northern flank of the Bakhmut salient.
Weather: Svatove (-10.1°C) and Pokrovsk (-4.5°C) remain under clear to mainly clear skies. High visibility supports the reported Russian drone-corrected strikes on Ukrainian equipment near Mirnohrad.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Status: No significant changes to the frontline reported in the last hour.
Weather: Orikhiv (-1.1°C) and Kherson (-0.4°C) remain under 100% cloud cover with higher wind speeds (up to 4.3 m/s), which continues to degrade the effectiveness of light FPV and optical reconnaissance compared to the northern sectors.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptations: The use of "Molniya" drones in Kharkiv suggests a diversification of loitering munitions to bypass or saturate local air defenses in urban environments.
Aerial Bombardment: Russian VKS continues to leverage clear weather in the north/east to conduct KAB strikes. The PS ZSU alert indicates this remains the primary tool for tactical suppression.
Course of Action (COA): Russian forces are maintaining pressure on the Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad axis while attempting localized opportunistic advances (e.g., Minkivka) to exploit any thinning of Ukrainian lines.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Drone/UXO Ops: UAF units are demonstrating high tactical proficiency by using FPV drones not only for direct strikes but for the secondary disposal of unexploded aerial munitions (UXO) near enemy concentrations, effectively turning Russian failed ordnance into improvised explosive devices.
Defensive Posture: UAF air defense remains on high alert for both strategic missile threats (noted in previous sitreps) and immediate KAB/UAV threats in the frontline regions.
Information environment / disinformation
External Support Narrative: Russian-aligned channels are circulating claims regarding Chinese Jilin-1 satellite surveillance being shared with Iran to monitor Western forces. This is likely intended to project an image of a cohesive anti-Western intelligence bloc (Basurin, 18:38).
Misinformation: Pro-Russian "war-bloggers" are utilizing astrology-based predictions of US strikes on Iran to distract from frontline developments and fuel regional instability narratives (Alex Parker Returns, 18:37).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued KAB and drone strikes on Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts as temperatures drop toward -13°C overnight, maximizing the psychological and physical impact of infrastructure damage.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A Russian breakthrough attempt in the Minkivka/Bakhmut sector coordinated with the assessed strategic aviation strike, aiming to capitalize on potential command-and-control disruptions during a grid-wide blackout.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL] Confirm the current control status of Minkivka via independent visual confirmation or UAF General Staff reporting.
[TECHNICAL] Identify the specific capabilities of the "Molniya" drone (payload, guidance, electronic counter-countermeasures) to update local EW profiles.
[OPERATIONAL] Monitor for any shift in VKS flight patterns from AB Olenya following the KAB launches to determine if a larger strategic wave is synchronized with tactical bombing.
