Ballistic Alert Clearance: The widespread air raid alert for Kyiv and central regions was officially cleared; ballistic threats to the capital have subsided as of 11:22 UTC (11:20-11:22, KMVA/UA Air Force, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
High-Speed Target toward Kremenchuk: A high-speed aerial target was confirmed heading toward Kremenchuk, with Poltava Oblast remaining under active alert (11:02, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Destruction of Russian MLRS: Ukrainian forces reported the destruction of a Russian Tornado-S (or Smerch) MLRS in Astrakhanka, Zaporizhzhia region, via a precision drone strike (11:09, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Internal Security Incidents: Armed attacks by civilians against Ukrainian military personnel (Aidar and Lyut Brigade members) were reported in Dnipropetrovsk and Odesa, indicating a concerning trend of domestic friction (11:16-11:18, Operativno ZSU/Hayabusa, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Slovak Energy Ultimatum Reiteration: Slovak PM Robert Fico reaffirmed the February 23 deadline to halt emergency electricity exports to Ukraine if Druzhba oil transit is not restored (11:05, Colonelcassad; 11:19, Operatsiya Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Russian Rear Threats: Russian authorities in Bryansk Oblast issued a drone danger warning, advising residents to seek shelter (11:24, AV Bogomaz, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy/Bryansk):
Weather: Kharkiv/Vovchansk is -2.3°C, clear skies (0% cloud). Visibility remains high for aerial reconnaissance.
Threat Assessment: Russian authorities have signaled "Drone Danger" in the Bryansk region, suggesting active UAF deep-strike operations (11:24, AV Bogomaz).
2. Eastern Sector (Luhansk/Donetsk):
Weather: Svatove is -1.7°C, clear. Pokrovsk is -1.4°C, mainly clear (11% cloud).
Terrain Conditions: Russian sources report significant mud accumulation on frontline roads ("beaten mud on wheels"), which is likely degrading heavy equipment mobility despite freezing air temperatures (10:59, Dva Mayora).
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Weather: Orikhiv is 0.7°C, overcast (46% cloud). Kherson is 2.0°C, partly cloudy (82% cloud).
Tactical Engagement: UAF claimed a significant equipment kill (Tornado-S MLRS) in the Astrakhanka area. Conversely, Russian-aligned sources are aggressively contesting the narrative of Ukrainian initiative, claiming "Southern Command lies" and citing alleged footage of destroyed UAF equipment (11:00, Voin DV; 11:09, Tsaplienko).
4. Strategic Rear:
Kyiv: Threat from ballistic weaponry has passed; "All Clear" issued (11:20, KMVA).
Dnipropetrovsk/Odesa: Reports of targeted attacks on service members (Aidar/Lyut) by groups in balaclavas suggest localized subversion or extreme civil unrest (11:16-11:18, Operativno ZSU).
Vinnytsia: Planned psychological support for families of POWs indicates ongoing focus on domestic morale and humanitarian sustainment (11:25, Coordination HQ).
Enemy analysis (threat assessment)
Capabilities: Russia continues to demonstrate the ability to fix Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) with high-speed targets (Kremenchuk) while simultaneously maintaining pressure on the Zaporizhzhia front.
Course of Action: Russia is utilizing information operations to frame Ukrainian manpower issues as a "forced technological pivot" to drones, attempting to project a narrative of Ukrainian exhaustion (11:01, Arkhangel Spetznaza).
Sustainment: The death of Alexander Bydanov (known for an attack on the Murmansk Governor) in the "SMO" zone suggests continued reliance on "Storm-Z" style convict recruitment for frontline attrition (11:05, TASS).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strike Operations: Successful use of thermal-equipped drones for Counter-Battery/Long-Range Strike (MLRS destruction in Zaporizhzhia).
Resource Management: Continued fundraising for anti-drone systems (Electronic Warfare) reflects the critical need for technical parity on the frontline (11:26, Sternenko).
Diplomatic/Security Posture: Romania’s call for a NATO "Black Sea Sentry" mission indicates a push for broader regional security architecture to protect maritime logistics (11:05, Dva Mayora).
Information environment / disinformation
"Lying" Narrative: Russian sources are specifically targeting the credibility of UAF Southern Command spokespeople (Voloshyn) to undermine reports of Ukrainian tactical gains.
Domestic Friction: Reports of attacks on soldiers in the rear are being amplified; if confirmed, these incidents could be leveraged by Russian psychological operations (PSYOP) to suggest a breakdown in civil-military relations.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Impact or interception of the high-speed target in the Kremenchuk/Poltava area. Continued drone/counter-drone attrition in Zaporizhzhia.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Escalation of internal security incidents in Odesa/Dnipropetrovsk, potentially coordinated with Russian strikes, aimed at destabilizing the rear as the Slovak electricity deadline (Feb 23) approaches.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BDA] Confirmation of results from the high-speed target heading to Kremenchuk.
[SIGINT] Monitoring for coordination between civilian groups attacking soldiers in Dnipropetrovsk/Odesa and known Russian influence networks.
[GEO] Independent verification of the Tornado-S destruction in Astrakhanka.
[DIPLOMATIC] Clarification of Romanian "Black Sea Sentry" proposal details and NATO response levels.
