New KAB Strikes in Zaporizhzhia: Russian tactical aviation has initiated Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) launches targeting the Zaporizhzhia region (03:31, UA Air Force, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
UAV Incursion in Kharkiv: A loitering munition (UAV) has been detected southeast of Staryi Saltiv, Kharkiv region, maintaining a southeasterly course (03:45, UA Air Force, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Reported UAF Strike on Rostov: Russian mil-bloggers and state-aligned channels are reporting a "massive attack" by Ukrainian forces targeting the Rostov region (03:58, Operatsiya Z, LOW CONFIDENCE / UNCONFIRMED).
Alert Clearance in Lipetsk: Air raid alerts (Red/Yellow levels) have been cancelled for the Lipetsk region (03:44, Gov. Artamonov, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Russian Information Operation: Russian state media is circulating historical defector testimony (Vasiliy Prozorov) regarding SBU "Alpha" unit loyalty in Crimea to influence current personnel morale (03:33, TASS, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Luhansk/Sumy):
Kharkiv: Weather remains extremely cold (-11.7°C) and clear (0% cloud). A new UAV threat is active southeast of Staryi Saltiv. The southeasterly heading suggests a trajectory toward the Kupiansk-Svatove axis or tactical rear logistics nodes.
Luhansk/Svatove: Clear conditions (-10.1°C) continue to favor Russian optical ISR and loitering munition operations. No new kinetic activity reported in the last 30 minutes.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk):
Donetsk/Pokrovsk: Conditions remain overcast (-5.9°C, 100% cloud). Following the 03:17 reported KAB launches, units remain on high alert. The cloud ceiling does not mitigate the threat from satellite-guided KAB-S munitions.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Zaporizhzhia: The threat has escalated with confirmed KAB launches at 03:31. This follows earlier reconnaissance UAV activity over the city. Visibility is poor (100% cloud cover at -3.0°C), suggesting the use of precision-guided munitions rather than gravity bombs.
Kherson: Remains overcast (99% cloud) and cold (-3.1°C). No new kinetic updates.
4. Strategic Rear (Russian Federation):
Rostov Oblast: Russian sources report a "massive" incoming attack. This follows earlier daily reports of UAV strikes in Volgodonsk. The specific target (energy, logistics, or military aviation) remains unverified.
Lipetsk: The cancellation of air raid alerts indicates the immediate threat to this sector has subsided or the strike package has transited.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Expansion: The expansion of KAB strikes from the Donetsk sector to the Zaporizhzhia sector indicates a multi-axis tactical aviation effort. This likely aims to suppress Ukrainian air defenses and fixed positions ahead of potential localized ground assaults.
UAV Tactics: The UAV movement in Kharkiv (SE from Staryi Saltiv) indicates persistent probing of the northern flank's tactical depth.
Internal Stability: The seizure of 99 properties from State Duma deputy Rifat Shaykhutdinov (linked to "Sirena-Travel") suggests ongoing internal Russian "cleansing" or re-nationalization of assets connected to critical infrastructure/transportation sectors.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Operations: If reports from Rostov are corroborated, UAF continues to execute a "defense through disruption" strategy, targeting Russian launch sites or logistical hubs to blunt the predicted offensive against the Ukrainian energy grid.
Air Defense: Active monitoring of the Kharkiv UAV and Zaporizhzhia KAB vectors is ongoing.
Information environment / disinformation
Defection Narratives: The TASS interview with Prozorov (claiming 199/200 SBU "Alpha" members stayed in Crimea in 2014) is a classic reflexive control tactic aimed at sowing distrust within Ukrainian security services.
OPSEC Dynamics: Following the earlier "Svarshchiki" warning regarding Telegram, analysts should watch for a reduction in Russian "real-time" battlefield reporting from frontline units.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued KAB impacts in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk. Russian state media will likely amplify reports of the Rostov strike to justify imminent retaliatory missile strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A coordinated "Alpha-Bravo" strike where current KAB/UAV activity acts as a "shaping" operation to fix air defenses, followed by a massed cruise/ballistic missile launch from strategic bombers or the Black Sea Fleet.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT] Verify the scale and impact of the reported "massive attack" in Rostov to determine if Russian strategic capabilities were affected.
[TARGET IDENTIFICATION] Determine the specific target of the UAV moving SE from Staryi Saltiv (Kharkiv).
[TACTICAL SIGINT] Monitor for increased C2 activity in the Zaporizhzhia sector following KAB launches to identify potential ground follow-on movements.
