UAF Counter-Tactical Success in Kharkiv: The Ukrainian 3rd Separate Assault Brigade (3rd OShBR) released footage of a successful assault clearing Russian 20th Army positions in Kharkiv Oblast, reportedly resulting in several Russian prisoners of war (1338Z, Tsaplienko; HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Expansion of KAB Strikes: Russian aviation has launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting both the Donetsk and eastern Dnipropetrovsk regions. This represents a westward expansion of stand-off strikes toward logistical hubs (1326Z, 1334Z, UA Air Force; HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Widespread UAV Activity: Multi-directional drone incursions are currently active in Sumy, Mykolaiv (changing course), and Zaporizhzhia regions. A UAV transit is also noted from southern Kharkiv toward Donetsk (1324Z–1351Z, UA Air Force; HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Advanced Russian C2 Deployment: The Russian "Sever" (North) Group of Forces has deployed R-444 NM portable satellite communications terminals in the northern sector. This indicates a focus on maintaining high-level command connectivity in the snowy, difficult terrain of the border regions (1331Z, MoD Russia; HIGH CONFIDENCE).
International Defense Procurement Support: A major (unnamed) global shell manufacturer has reportedly agreed to assist in the procurement of weaponry for the UAF, potentially easing ammunition constraints (1330Z, RBK-Ukraine; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Strategic Maritime Shift: US Navy Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group is reportedly repositioning toward the Middle East (The Washington Post via Two Majors). This may reduce Western naval presence near the Black Sea, potentially emboldening Russian maritime posturing (1325Z; MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Dynamics: The UAF 3rd OShBR is actively contesting Russian footholds, specifically targeting units of the Russian 20th Army. Concurrently, Russian Airborne (VDV) units within the "Sever" group are hardening their C2 infrastructure using satellite terminals.
Environment: Temperatures remain at -2.0°C with light snow. Cloud cover is at 98%, but wind speeds (2.1 m/s) have dropped significantly compared to earlier reports, allowing for the observed resumption of tactical UAV operations (1345Z, Weather Context).
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Dynamics: This sector is under heavy aerial pressure from KAB strikes. The reported movement of UAVs from Kharkiv toward Donetsk suggests a concentration of ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) assets to support the ongoing mechanized assaults previously reported in the Pokrovsk direction.
Environment: 0.8°C with 97% cloud cover. Winds are low (2.5 m/s), creating a window for both Russian KAB delivery and UAF FPV drone defense.
Dynamics: A drone-heavy environment is developing. UAVs are approaching Zaporizhzhia city from the south, while another group is maneuvering over Mykolaiv with erratic course changes to complicate interception.
Environment: Temperatures (3.7°C - 5.7°C) remain above freezing. Extremely low wind speeds (1.2 m/s in Kherson) are providing ideal conditions for the Shahed/UAV maneuvers reported by the UA Air Force.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
C2 Adaptation: The deployment of the R-444 NM satellite terminal suggests Russian forces are anticipating or experiencing degradation of traditional radio/cellular communications in the "Sever" sector. These terminals provide a more resilient link to higher command but present a new signature for UAF electronic intelligence (ELINT).
Tactical Course of Action: Russian forces are utilizing the "drone-friendly" wind window (currently under 3 m/s across the front) to surge UAVs and bridge the gap between their mechanized pushes and aerial strikes.
Air Capabilities: The use of KABs against eastern Dnipropetrovsk indicates an intent to disrupt Ukrainian "deep" tactical reserves and logistics before they reach the Donetsk contact line.
Friendly forces (Blue force tracking)
Tactical Agility: The 3rd OShBR continues to be a primary "firefighting" unit, capable of conducting successful local counter-attacks even under adverse weather and aerial pressure.
Strategic Logistics: The reported partnership with a global shell manufacturer is a critical development for sustaining high-intensity artillery exchanges, which have likely increased as wind conditions stabilized.
Information environment / disinformation
Economic Re-integration Narratives: Ukrainian and Russian channels are amplifying a New York Times report regarding a gas deal between a Trump-associated investor and Russia's Novatek.
Intent: Pro-Russian sources use this to signal that Western sanctions are being bypassed by political elites, aiming to demoralize the Ukrainian public regarding the "sanctions-tightening" narrative.
Global Pivot: Reports of US-China aerial standoffs over the Yellow Sea and the Gerald R. Ford's move to the Middle East are being used by Russian milbloggers to suggest that US attention is being diverted away from the Ukrainian theater.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will escalate KAB strikes on Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk logistics nodes under the current stable weather. UAV swarms will continue to probe air defenses in Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv to identify gaps for subsequent missile strikes.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Exploiting the improved visibility and low winds, Russian forces could launch a coordinated multi-regiment mechanized push in the Pokrovsk sector, supported by the "Yelka" AD systems and concentrated KAB strikes to overwhelm UAF forward defensive positions.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL] Identify the exact location and frequency range of the R-444 NM satellite terminals in the Northern Sector for potential EW targeting.
[OPERATIONAL] Determine if the KAB strikes in Dnipropetrovsk are targeting specific western equipment arrivals or general rail infrastructure.
[STRATEGIC] Verify the identity of the "major shell manufacturer" and the projected timeline for ammunition delivery to UAF units.
