Major Territorial Claim (Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv): Russian sources claim the "liberation" of Dorozhnyanka and ongoing engagements for Ternovate (0502Z, Rybar, LOW CONFIDENCE).
Intensified Strike Activity (Zaporizhzhia): Zaporizhzhia OVA reports 652 Russian strikes across 33 settlements within a 24h period (0510Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Air Operations (Vremivka Direction): Russian 11th Guards Air Force documented strikes against UAF positions near Lesne, Lyubytske, and Orly (0500Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
UAV Interception Specifics (Bryansk): Russian MoD claims 57 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs were intercepted over Bryansk Oblast overnight by PVO and "BARS-Bryansk" units (0455Z, AV Bogomaz, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
UAF IT Modernization: The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade is actively recruiting IT specialists to scale digital solutions, indicating a strategic shift toward internal tech development (0507Z, 46 OAeMBr, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Energy Crisis (Odesa): Local authorities confirm the energy situation in Odesa remains "difficult," following previous hybrid and kinetic pressure (0501Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Dynamics: Weather remains the primary operational constraint. While the ground is frozen, low wind speeds continue to permit limited UAV activity, though light snow (35% probability) is expected to degrade visual reconnaissance later today.
2. Eastern Sector (Svatove/Pokrovsk/Donetsk):
Environment: Pokrovsk at -4.1°C, wind 1.0 m/s, 82% cloud cover. Svatove at -6.4°C, wind 1.9 m/s, 67% cloud cover.
Dynamics: Conditions are transitionary. Snow probability is 98-100% in this sector for the next 12h. Current low winds (1.0 m/s) are deceptive; forecasts indicate a shift to 5.1 m/s, which will severely degrade FPV drone screens and facilitate Russian infantry infiltration in the Pokrovsk-Dimitrova corridor.
Environment: Orikhiv at -2.6°C, wind 1.2 m/s, 97% cloud cover.
Dynamics: This is currently the most active kinetic sector. The 652 strikes reported in 24h suggest a preparatory bombardment or a focused effort to fix Ukrainian reserves. Russian tactical aviation (11th Guards) is exploiting the 97% cloud cover to conduct strikes on Vremivka-area targets (Lesne, Lyubytske, Orly).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shift: The claim of capturing Dorozhnyanka (if confirmed) indicates a Russian attempt to widen the breach in the Zaporizhzhia sector. The use of "BARS" units and Rosgvardia for UAV defense in Bryansk suggests a consolidation of rear-area security to free up regular units for the frontline.
Course of Action (Aviation): Russian forces are demonstrating high-frequency sortie rates in the Vremivka direction, likely aiming to disrupt UAF logistics and command nodes before the projected wind increase (to 5.9 m/s) grounds their own light UAV support.
Internal/Logistical: Despite high personnel attrition (970 in 24h), the Russian command appears committed to maintaining high-tempo operations in the south.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Attrition: UAF continues to maintain high attrition rates on Russian personnel (970) and artillery (3 systems), focusing on defensive counter-battery fire despite weather constraints (0458Z, GS UAF).
Organizational Adaptation: The recruitment of IT specialists by the 46th Brigade suggests the UAF is prioritizing "software-defined warfare" to offset Russian numerical advantages in munitions and personnel.
Strategic Observation: Ukrainian forces are commemorating the "Day of the Heavenly Hundred Heroes" (0502Z), a critical morale factor during high-intensity defensive operations.
Information environment / disinformation
Counter-Anniversary Narratives: Russian state media (TASS, 05:07) is utilizing defector Vasily Prozorov to push revisionist histories of the Maidan revolution, timed to coincide with Ukrainian national commemorations.
Mobilization Friction: Pro-Russian channels (Colonelcassad, 05:11) are circulating stylized footage of aggressive TCC (recruitment) activities in snowy conditions to incite internal civil unrest and undermine UAF replenishment efforts.
Exaggerated Claims: TASS news digests continue to circulate "highly exaggerated" UAF casualty figures to balance the confirmed high Russian attrition reported by the UAF General Staff.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued localized Russian ground assaults in the Zaporizhzhia sector (Ternovate axis) supported by heavy artillery (600+ strikes/day) to capitalize on the reported "liberation" of Dorozhnyanka.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated multi-axis push in the Pokrovsk sector as the 100% snow probability and 5.1 m/s winds converge to neutralize UAF tactical drone reconnaissance, allowing for unobserved Russian mechanized movement.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL]URGENT: Verify the status of Dorozhnyanka. If lost, assess the threat to the Ternovate-Orikhiv line.
[OPERATIONAL] Monitor for Russian movement of heavy armor into the "drone-blind" window in the Pokrovsk sector as snow accumulation begins.
[HYBRID] Assess the impact of Odesa’s "difficult" energy status on the port’s operational capacity and logistical throughput.
