VKS Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) Strikes: Russian aviation launched KAB strikes targeting the Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions (0215Z, UAF AF, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Expanded KAB Operations: KAB launches confirmed targeting the Zaporizhzhia sector (0237Z, UAF AF, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Information Operation (Domestic Russia): TASS reports 7-year prison sentences for teenagers in Zabaykalye for "Ukraine-ordered" arson, likely aimed at domestic deterrence (0236Z, TASS, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Western Media Narrative: Ukrainian outlets amplifying The Economist reporting that Russian strategic prospects are diminishing (0230Z, RBC-UA, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Non-Combat Attrition (Russia): Criminal investigation opened following the disappearance of a helicopter in the Amur region (0230Z, TASS, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Chernihiv/Kharkiv):
Environment: Kharkiv/Vovchansk at -9.4°C, wind 1.9 m/s.
Dynamics: No new kinetic updates since the unconfirmed Iskander strike (0202Z). Low wind speeds persist, maintaining favorable conditions for both UAF and Russian tactical reconnaissance.
2. Eastern Sector (Svatove/Pokrovsk/Donetsk):
Environment: Pokrovsk at -4.6°C, wind 1.7 m/s; Svatove at -6.9°C, wind 2.6 m/s.
Dynamics: The significant drop in wind (down from 7.0 m/s yesterday) has fully restored the operational capacity of tactical UAVs and FPV screens. The reported KAB launches (0215Z) into Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk suggest the VKS is capitalizing on improved flight stability to strike rear logistics or hardening defensive lines.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Environment: Orikhiv wind is near-zero (0.9 m/s); Kherson wind 1.6 m/s with 80% cloud cover.
Dynamics: The Zaporizhzhia sector is under active KAB engagement (0237Z). The extremely low wind speeds in Orikhiv and Kherson facilitate high-precision UAV reconnaissance and OWA-UAV (Shahed) navigation. Russian forces appear to be leveraging the lack of wind to compensate for the high cloud cover (71-80%) in target acquisition.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shift (Aerial Bombardment): The simultaneous KAB strikes across three regions (Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia) indicate a coordinated VKS effort to strike during the current weather window before forecasted "snow grains" (100% prob in Pokrovsk) arrive.
Course of Action (Hybrid/Lawfare): The sentencing of teenagers for arson in Zabaykalye serves the Kremlin’s narrative of "Ukrainian internal subversion," used to justify intensified domestic security measures and distract from frontline stagnation.
Logistics Status: Despite the peripheral report of a missing helicopter in the Amur region, Russian strategic aviation and logistical hubs remain the primary concern, particularly given the recent "dark" status of GRAU arsenals 53 and 23 noted in earlier reports.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense (AD): Units are on high alert across the Eastern and Southern sectors following the multi-axis KAB launches.
Electronic Warfare (EW): With wind speeds dropping, UAF EW units must prioritize the suppression of Russian recon-UAVs which are now operating without environmental constraints in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia sectors.
Information environment / disinformation
Strategic Optimism: The promotion of The Economist’s analysis regarding diminishing Russian victory prospects serves as a morale booster for the Ukrainian domestic audience and a counter to recent Russian "peace for territory" narratives.
Deterrence Narrative: Russian state media is heavily leaning into "sentences for saboteurs," reinforcing the image of an omnipresent state security apparatus to discourage any internal dissent or cooperation with Ukrainian intelligence.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued VKS KAB strikes through the morning hours. As wind speeds remain low (<4 m/s), expect a surge in Russian FPV activity in the Pokrovsk sector to exploit the lanes cleared by their sappers during the previous high-wind window.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massed mechanized assault in the Pokrovsk/Dobropillya sector. With the "drone-blind" window closed, the enemy may attempt to push through cleared minefields under the cover of the current KAB strikes before visibility is further degraded by incoming snow.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[OPERATIONAL] Identify specific impact points of the 0215Z and 0237Z KAB strikes to determine if the target set has shifted from frontline positions to energy infrastructure or command nodes.
[TACTICAL] Confirm if Russian "friendly fire" near Kozacha Lopan (Kharkiv) has resulted in a localized retreat or redistribution of their motorized infantry units.
[TECHNICAL] Monitor for increased Shahed-136/131 activity in the Southern sector, specifically targeting Dnipropetrovsk, as the low wind provides optimal conditions for long-range OWA-UAV flights.
