Internal Security Crisis (Chernivtsi): A special police operation has been launched in Storozhynets following a grenade attack on a police vehicle. Two officers are wounded (2145Z, Tsapliienko/RBK-UA, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Major Policy Shift (Poland): Reports indicate Poland has withdrawn from the Ottawa Convention (Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Treaty) and plans to begin domestic production of landmines (2146Z, TASS, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Escalation in Sevastopol: Russian authorities report 16 UAF BPLAs (UAVs) intercepted over Sevastopol; one civilian fatality reported as the engagement continues (2147Z, TASS, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE in casualty figures).
Evolving Shahed Vectors: New waves of loitering munitions have shifted course toward Nikopol (Dnipropetrovsk region) and are entering Sumy from the east (2146Z-2206Z, Air Force UA, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Robotic Systems Proliferation: Russian milbloggers are circulating footage of Chinese-manufactured (XPENG) legged robots, projecting their use on the Ukrainian battlefield in the near term (2159Z, Alex Parker, LOW CONFIDENCE in immediate deployment).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern / Kharkiv-Sumy Sector:
Environment (Vovchansk/Sumy): Current temp -8.3°C; wind 3.2 m/s.
Dynamics: Shahed UAVs are currently entering Sumy from the east. The 100% probability of snow grains and forecast wind gusts of 6.4 m/s over the next 12h will likely degrade UAF visual tracking and interception of low-flying drones.
2. Eastern / Luhansk-Donetsk Sector:
Environment (Pokrovsk): -3.9°C; wind 4.5 m/s.
Dynamics: Conditions remain marginally favorable for UAVs, but the 83% probability of light snow and forecast wind increases (to 7.6 m/s) will soon cross the operational threshold for light FPV drones. This supports previous assessments of Russian sappers (177th Marine) accelerating manual mine-clearing while drone windows remain open.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson/Crimea):
Environment (Orikhiv/Kherson): -1.8°C to -2.6°C. Forecasted wind increase to 8.7 m/s in Zaporizhzhia.
Dynamics:
Air Threat: Multi-vector Shahed activity is transiting south of Zaporizhzhia toward Nikopol and western Dnipropetrovsk.
Crimea: The massed drone attack on Sevastopol (16+ units) indicates a concerted UAF effort to suppress Black Sea Fleet infrastructure or AD nodes, potentially as a shaper for future long-range strikes.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Strategic Air Operations: The shift in Shahed targeting toward Nikopol—a critical hub near the Zaporizhzhia NPP and significant industrial zones—suggests an intent to pressure energy and water infrastructure as temperatures drop.
Logistics & Support: Russian milbloggers are actively socializing the use of foreign (Chinese) robotic platforms. While currently "commercial-off-the-shelf" (COTS) technology, this signals an intent to integrate non-Russian autonomous systems to offset infantry attrition.
Hybrid Warfare: Russian state media is heavily prioritizing Olympic results (Petrosian's 6th place vs. US winner) to fuel domestic nationalist sentiment and distract from rear-area security failures in Sevastopol.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Operations: UAF continues to demonstrate high-volume UAV strike capabilities against Sevastopol, maintaining pressure on Russian rear-tier logistics and naval assets.
Rear Security: The National Police have deployed special units in Western Ukraine (Chernivtsi) to apprehend suspects in the police grenade attack. This incident is being monitored for potential links to Russian-sponsored subversion or organized crime.
AD Posture: Air Force units are actively tracking and engaging multiple Shahed groups across the Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk axes.
Information environment / disinformation
Polish Mining Narrative: The claim that Poland has exited the Ottawa Convention is being amplified by Russian state media. This is likely intended to frame NATO as "escalatory" and justify Russian mining operations in the Donbas.
Geopolitical Alignment: Russian channels are promoting claims by Kazakh President Tokayev regarding a "peace award" for Donald Trump, attempting to signal a shift in Central Asian alignment toward a Russian-preferred "peace" framework (2212Z, Alex Parker, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE in the statement's occurrence).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Shahed strikes will focus on the Nikopol/Dnipropetrovsk axis throughout the night. Ground operations in the East will remain limited to sapper activity and small-unit probes as wind speeds rise toward 7.6-8.7 m/s, grounding tactical aviation and drones.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated attack on the Nikopol power grid or water systems during the forecast snow/wind peak, utilizing the "drone-blind" weather window to maximize repair delays and civilian hardship.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[OPERATIONAL] Confirm if the Sevastopol UAV strike targeted specific Black Sea Fleet vessels or the Belbek airbase infrastructure.
[STRATEGIC] Verify through official Polish channels the status of the Ottawa Convention withdrawal to distinguish RU propaganda from NATO policy shifts.
[INTERNAL SECURITY] Determine the motive behind the Chernivtsi grenade attack; specifically, if the perpetrator has ties to the "Dignity" or other RU-aligned sabotage cells.
