Ballistic Threat Terminated: The high-speed aerial target threat to Kyiv and Central Ukraine has ended; air raid alerts cleared as of 2104Z (KMVA, Air Force UA, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Expansion of UAV Campaign to Sochi: Ukrainian long-range UAVs are currently attacking Sochi and other districts in Krasnodar Krai. Local air defenses are active (2052Z, Sochi Mayor; 2103Z, Operatsiya Z, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Crimean/Black Sea Engagement: Russian MoD claims 29 Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted over Crimea and the Black/Azov Seas between 2000-2300 local time (2044Z, RU MoD, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk Aviation Threat: Russian tactical aviation has launched KAB (glide bombs) from eastern Zaporizhzhia targeting southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (2053Z, Air Force UA, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Tactical Loss in Orikhiv: Footage confirms the destruction of a Ukrainian "Bohdana" self-propelled howitzer by a Russian "Lancet" loitering munition in the Orikhiv sector (2104Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
UK-US Friction (Unconfirmed): Reports suggest the UK is denying the US access to bases (Diego Garcia, RAF Fairford) for potential strikes against Iran, potentially complicating US-led regional containment (2054Z, RBC-Ukraine, LOW CONFIDENCE).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern / Kharkiv-Sumy Sector:
Environment: Kharkiv/Vovchansk: -7.3°C, 39% cloud, wind 4.4 m/s. Forecast: Heavy snow grains (100% precip) expected within 12h.
Dynamics: The sector is currently quiet following the all-clear for ballistic threats. Attention remains on the border where Russian tactical aviation is expected to utilize incoming snow cover for concealment.
Dynamics: Russian forces are maintaining pressure on the Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia border with KAB strikes. The 4.7 m/s winds in Pokrovsk are near the threshold for light UAV operations, but allow for continued fixed-wing activity.
Orikhiv: Russian "Lancet" teams are successfully interdicting UAF mobile artillery (Bohdana SPG). Clear skies (0% cloud) in this sector facilitate Russian loitering munition optics.
Crimea/Black Sea: Sustained UAF pressure via UAV swarms is forcing high readiness from Russian AD units across the peninsula and into the Russian mainland (Sochi).
Kherson: Overcast conditions (97%) limit visual reconnaissance, but the frontline remains active near Kakhovka (2051Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: The use of Lancets in the Orikhiv sector suggests Russian "OVT" (Operational-Tactical Grouping) elements are prioritizing the destruction of Ukrainian Western-caliber or modern domestic (Bohdana) artillery to degrade UAF counter-battery capabilities.
Strategic Signaling: Senior Russian officials (Matviyenko, Rudskoy) are amplifying the narrative that European security is "impossible" without Russia, likely a coordinated information operation to influence the proposed "Peace Council" mentioned by US leadership (2044Z, 2104Z).
Logistics/Rear Security: The seizure of 23 billion rubles from former Deputy Voronovsky indicates an internal "cleansing" or resource reclamation effort as the Russian state budget remains strained by high-intensity warfare (2045Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Maneuver: The UAV campaign has successfully pivoted from Crimea to Krasnodar Krai (Sochi), demonstrating the ability to saturate Russian AD across multiple geographic axes simultaneously.
Artillery Posture: Despite the loss of one "Bohdana" SPG, UAF artillery remains active in the Zaporizhzhia sector, though high-value assets are under increased threat from Russian loitering munitions due to clear weather.
Information environment / disinformation
Western Alliance Fractures: Russian and some Ukrainian sources are highlighting alleged UK-US friction regarding Iran. This is likely intended to project a sense of Western indecision or lack of unified command.
Morale Operations: Russian sources are circulating claims of Lithuanian "mercenary" insubordination (2055Z) and Ukrainian draft-dodging maneuvers (2105Z) to undermine the narrative of International Legion effectiveness and Ukrainian domestic resolve.
Hybrid Narratives: Pro-Russian channels (Alex Parker) are utilizing Afghan domestic policy shifts to mock "Western values," targeting conservative-leaning audiences in the West.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued UAF UAV strikes on Krasnodar Krai (Sochi/Novorossiysk) to exploit the current AD repositioning. Russian KAB strikes will likely intensify on the Zaporizhzhia-Dnipropetrovsk axis before the weather deteriorates.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massed Russian missile/Shahed strike tonight synchronized with the heavy snow forecast in the North/East, aiming to strike energy infrastructure while recovery teams are hampered by blizzard conditions and -9°C temperatures.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL] Confirm BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the UAV strikes in Sochi; identify specific targets (energy, port infrastructure, or C2).
[OPERATIONAL] Monitor RU tactical aviation patterns out of Crimea to see if AD assets are being shifted from the front to protect Sochi/rear areas.
[TECHNICAL] Evaluate the "Lancet" density in the Orikhiv sector to determine if a new Russian specialized UAV unit has been deployed.
[STRATEGIC] Verify the status of US base access in the UK via diplomatic channels to assess the validity of the RBC-Ukraine report.
