UAF Counterattack Initiated: Ukrainian Defense Forces have launched a counter-offensive operation on an unspecified sector of the front (1253Z, RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).
Southern UAV Threat: Russian "Shahed-type" UAVs (Geran) are currently inbound toward Kherson from the south, exploiting clearer weather in that sector (1308Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Zaporizhzhia Tactical Success: UAF "Requiem Group" and "Balista" units confirmed successful FPV drone strikes against Russian personnel and assets in snowy conditions on the Zaporizhzhia axis (1249Z, Sternenko, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Sabotage Recruitment Alert: Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration has issued an urgent warning regarding Russian intelligence (FSB/GRU) targeting Ukrainian teenagers for financial-incentive-based sabotage (1258Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Internal Russian Friction: Former Deputy MoD Timur Ivanov is reportedly suing the Russian MoD for refusing his deployment to a frontline assault unit, signaling ongoing internal C2 and political instability (1253Z, Alex Parker, LOW CONFIDENCE).
Regional Threat Warning: Unconfirmed reports suggest Poland has advised citizens to evacuate Iran, citing potential strikes as early as Saturday (1254Z, Alex Parker, LOW CONFIDENCE / UNCORROBORATED).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Vovchansk/Svatove):
Current Conditions: Kharkiv is at -3.7°C with light snow (98% cloud cover). Svatove is at -1.2°C with 100% cloud cover.
Impact: High cloud cover and snowfall are severely degrading visual reconnaissance and standard quadcopter FPV operations. Ground maneuver is restricted by snow accumulation.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Pokrovsk):
Current Conditions: -3.2°C, light snow, wind 7.0 m/s.
Kinetic Status: Sustained KAB (guided bomb) threat remains the primary Russian vector here. High winds (7.0 m/s) are near the operational limit for small tactical drones, likely reducing UAF's "drone shield" effectiveness.
3. Zaporizhzhia Sector (Orikhiv):
Current Conditions: -1.9°C, overcast, wind 8.0 m/s.
Tactical Activity: Despite 8.0 m/s winds and snow, UAF FPV units (Requiem Group/65th Brigade) are maintaining operational tempo, successfully striking Russian infantry (1249Z, Sternenko/Butusov).
Threat Assessment: Clearer skies relative to the rest of the front make Kherson the primary target for Russian aerial assets. Inbound UAVs from the south (1308Z) indicate Russia is prioritizing this weather window for strikes on logistics or infrastructure.
Enemy analysis (threat assessment)
Tactical Adaptation: Russia is increasingly utilizing hybrid methods behind UAF lines, specifically targeting vulnerable demographics (teenagers) for sabotage to bypass traditional counter-intelligence screens.
Internal Command Stability: Reports of legal disputes between the Russian MoD and high-ranking former officials (Timur Ivanov), alongside friction between "Akhmat" units and Wagner veterans (1301Z, ASTRA), suggest a fractured internal command environment that may impact long-term sustainment.
Course of Action: Russia is likely to maintain pressure in the Donetsk sector via KABs while concentrating long-range UAV strikes on the Kherson/Southern sector where visibility permits targeting.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Operational Shift: The transition to counter-attack operations (1253Z) indicates UAF has identified a localized Russian vulnerability, possibly linked to the logistical disruptions caused by the icing and snow reported earlier.
Electronic Warfare/Drone Ops: UAF continues to demonstrate high proficiency in cold-weather drone operations in the Zaporizhzhia sector despite high winds.
Civil Defense: Active counter-hybrid operations by regional administrations (Zaporizhzhia OVA) are focusing on hardening the rear against Russian sabotage recruitment.
Information environment / disinformation
Moral Disruption Narrative: Russian proxy channels (Colonelcassad, Alex Parker, NgP RaZvedka) are flooding the space with videos of civilian-military confrontations (e.g., in "Mamalyga") to frame Ukrainian mobilization as coercive and violent (1247Z, 1303Z).
External Distraction: Continued promotion of the "Prince Andrew arrest" and "US Arctic Militarization" narratives seeks to portray Western allies as either unstable or aggressive to justify Russian posturing.
Diplomatic Deadlock: TASS reports (1308Z) indicate the Kremlin is using the failure of the Geneva talks to justify a "wait and see" approach, likely waiting for further battlefield developments before re-engaging.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Russian UAV strikes on Kherson will intensify over the next 6 hours. UAF will likely consolidate gains from the reported counter-attack before the deep freeze (-18°C) takes full effect.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A coordinated Russian missile strike on energy infrastructure in the Southern sector, timed with the inbound UAVs, to exploit the clear weather window and maximize the impact of the impending Arctic cold snap.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL] Precise location and scale of the UAF counter-attack reported at 1253Z.
[SABOTAGE] Identification of specific targets assigned to RU-recruited "sabotage cells" in the Zaporizhzhia/Rear regions.
[LOGISTICS] Confirmation of whether the "thaw" forecast for Moscow (Feb 23) will extend to the Donbas, potentially creating "Rasputitsa" (mud) conditions earlier than anticipated.
