Deep Strike on Russian Energy Infrastructure: Ukrainian UAVs successfully targeted an oil depot in Velikiye Luki, Pskov region. This is the second recorded strike on this facility, though previous incidents were suppressed by local authorities (0609Z, Север.Реалии, HIGH CONFIDENCE).
Advancement in Military-Track Negotiations: President Zelenskyy confirmed that negotiations on the "military track" (ceasefire mechanics/disengagement) are progressing faster and are closer to completion than the political-territorial track (0617Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, MEDIUM).
Zelenskyy Warning on NATO-Russia Diplomacy: The Ukrainian President acknowledged reports of bilateral NATO-Russia document discussions involving the US and Europe, insisting that Ukraine must be a direct participant in any talks regarding its NATO membership status (0610Z, Zelenskiy / Official, HIGH).
RU Claims Armor Kill in Donbas: Russian state media released thermal footage allegedly showing the destruction of a French-supplied AMX-10RC wheeled tank near Dobropillya by the "Rubikon" unit (0627Z, ТАСС, MEDIUM).
Mass Genomic Registration in Russia: New legislative amendments propose mandatory DNA (genomic) registration for all Russian civil servants, police, Rosgvardiya, and conscripts, signaling a significant tightening of internal state control (0625Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
Internal Russian Instability: Reports indicate the 7th school stabbing/attack in Russia since the start of 2026 occurred in Perm Krai, alongside the arrest of a 5-person terrorist cell in a Zabaikalsky Krai prison (0614Z, 0638Z, ASTRA/ТАСС, HIGH).
Current Conditions: -1.1°C, snow grains, 100% cloud cover.
Tactical Status: RU forces conducted strikes on 7 settlements in the Kharkiv region over the last 24h. Ground remains frozen (-8.6°C forecast minimum), facilitating potential heavy armor movement. UAF deep-strike capability remains potent, as evidenced by the Velikiye Luki strike, likely aimed at disrupting the fuel supply chain for the Northern Grouping of Forces.
2. Central Sector (Pokrovsk/Donbas):
Current Conditions: 1.8°C, light rain, 100% cloud cover.
Tactical Status: The "Icing Trap" persists. Above-freezing temperatures with rain (0.1mm) create hazardous conditions for UAF quadcopter operations. RU activity near Dobropillya (west of the main line) suggests an effort to interdict UAF mobile reserves (e.g., AMX-10RC units) moving to reinforce the Pokrovsk salient.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv):
Current Conditions: -1.4°C, overcast, wind 6.8 m/s.
Tactical Status: High winds (gusting up to 8.6 m/s in forecast) are the primary constraint on tactical aviation and ISR. The front remains characterized by positional exchange and localized probing.
4. Kherson Sector:
Current Conditions: -4.9°C, 65% cloud cover.
Tactical Status: Visibility is significantly better here than in northern sectors, though the forecast predicts snow (4.7mm), which will likely degrade operations by 1200Z.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: RU "Rubikon" units are demonstrating effective use of thermal/night-capable ISR to hunt Western-supplied armor in the Donbas rear/transition zones.
Strategic Course of Action (Internal): The move toward universal genomic registration for security and state personnel suggests the Kremlin is preparing for long-term mobilization or is anticipating increased internal dissent/desertion that requires biometric tracking.
Hybrid Operations: Ongoing promotion of "Akhmat" Spetsnaz profiles (e.g., "Nevsky") serves to normalize the war's duration and promote a narrative of religious/ethnic integration within the RU Armed Forces.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Positioning: UAF leadership is effectively separating the "military track" (practical ceasefire) from the "political track" (sovereignty), allowing for potential tactical breathing room without conceding long-term political objectives.
Deep Strike Resilience: Despite heavy RU air defenses (claiming 40+ intercepts), UAF continues to successfully penetrate Russian airspace to strike strategic nodes (Velikiye Luki).
Defensive Posture: UAF maintains a mobile defense in the Donbas, utilizing wheeled armor (AMX-10RC) to respond to RU breakthroughs, despite the risks posed by RU specialized anti-tank drone units.
Information environment / disinformation
"Bilateral Document" Narrative: Zelenskyy’s public concern regarding NATO-Russia talks suggests a perceived risk of "deal-making" behind Kyiv's back. This is a critical friction point between Ukraine and its Western partners.
Internal RU Decay: The rising frequency of school attacks and prison radicalization provides a counter-narrative to the "stable Russia" image, suggesting the domestic cost of the war is manifesting in societal violence.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RU forces will continue exploiting the icing/rain in the Pokrovsk sector to push infantry and heavy armor while UAF's FPV screen is degraded.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A major RU mechanized push toward Dobropillya or Pokrovsk, timed with the peak of the predicted snegopad (snowfall) in Moscow/North, which may mask large-scale movement from satellite and high-altitude ISR.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[OPERATIONAL] Confirm the specific terms of the "military track" negotiations mentioned by Zelenskyy—specifically regarding disengagement zones.
[TACTICAL] Assess the operational status of the 155th Brigade near Hryshyne following previous reports of Leopard tank deployments; confirm if they are being targeted by "Rubikon" units.
[STRATEGIC] Monitor for any official NATO or US response to Zelenskyy's statement regarding bilateral NATO-Russia document talks.
