UAV Vector Shift: A group of OWA-UAVs (Shaheds/Geran) has been detected moving from Donetsk Oblast toward Kharkiv Oblast as of 0052Z (UA Air Force, 0052Z; HIGH).
Zaporizhzhia Air Alert Termination: The air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast was cancelled at 0058Z following an earlier 0040Z warning (Zaporizhzhia OVA, 0058Z; HIGH).
Diplomatic Signal: President Zelensky announced that the next round of peace negotiations will again be hosted in Switzerland, maintaining the "Geneva track" despite the previous Russian delegation's departure (RBK-Ukraine, 0057Z; MEDIUM).
Russian Rear Area Reorganization: The Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations (MCHS) is establishing new demining units in border regions (Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk) and occupied Kherson Oblast, suggesting a shift toward long-term occupation infrastructure and "stabilization" operations (TASS, 0102Z; MEDIUM).
Tactical Engagement (Polohy): Russian 36th Army (Group "Vostok") claims to have destroyed Ukrainian communication equipment near Polohy using UAVs; footage confirms snowy conditions consistent with current weather (Colonelcassad, 0103Z; UNCONFIRMED / LOW).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern/Northeast Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv):
Current Conditions: -1.8°C, light snow (code 71), 100% cloud cover.
Tactical Impact: The detection of a new UAV group moving from the south (Donetsk) toward Kharkiv (0052Z) indicates a multi-axis saturation attempt. These UAVs are likely intended to synchronize with the ongoing KAB strikes (reported 0034Z) to overwhelm local air defense and EW assets.
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas/Pokrovsk/Svatove):
Current Conditions: Svatove remains in an "Icing Trap" at -1.3°C with freezing rain (code 66). Pokrovsk is 0.8°C with drizzle.
Tactical Impact: Freezing rain continues to degrade UAV optics and flight stability in the Svatove sector. In Pokrovsk, the transition to sub-zero temperatures (forecast min -3.3°C) is beginning, which will harden the mud and potentially increase the tempo of armored assaults by dawn.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Current Conditions: Kherson is -4.6°C with light snow. Orikhiv is 4.9°C and overcast.
Tactical Impact: The "all-clear" in Zaporizhzhia (0058Z) suggests the immediate missile/UAV threat to the city has bypassed or been neutralized, though tactical UAV strikes continue on the Line of Contact (LOC) near Polohy. In Kherson, sub-zero temperatures and snow favor infantry infiltration over vehicle-heavy maneuvers.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Multi-Axis UAV Maneuver: The movement of UAVs from Donetsk toward Kharkiv suggests a sophisticated redirection of assets to exploit the current weather window in the Northeast.
Paramilitary Stabilization: The creation of MCHS demining units (TASS, 0102Z) in Kherson, coupled with high analytical belief in a "Counter-Terrorism Operation" (CTO) framework, indicates Russia is transitioning Kherson from a purely frontline military administration to a "rear-area" security model under the FSB/MCHS. This often precedes forced mobilization or further integration of occupied territories.
Tactical EW/Comms Targeting: Russian 36th Army focus on "communication equipment" near Polohy suggests a deliberate effort to degrade UA command and control (C2) ahead of potential localized probes.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Reorientation: UA Air Force is tracking and responding to the shift in UAV vectors toward Kharkiv.
Diplomatic Continuity: Zelensky's confirmation of further Swiss-hosted talks (0057Z) serves as a counter-narrative to Russian claims of a total diplomatic breakdown, aiming to maintain Western coalition cohesion.
Information environment / disinformation
Distraction Narratives: Russian state media (TASS, 0042Z) is amplifying trivial domestic issues in the US (sewage spills in DC) to dilute coverage of the intensified winter offensive and the failure of the previous Geneva talks.
Normalization: Focus on demining units and "Maslenitsa" (previous report) is used to project an image of administrative control and normalcy in occupied and border regions.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): A coordinated UAV and KAB strike on Kharkiv city and surrounding logistics nodes between 0200Z and 0500Z, utilizing the cloud cover to mask approach.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A sudden mechanized push in the Pokrovsk sector as ground temperatures drop below freezing, supported by the redirection of UAVs currently transiting from the south.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL] Confirm the specific type of "communication equipment" targeted near Polohy to determine if Starlink or tactical radio relays are being successfully suppressed.
[OPERATIONAL] Identify the point of origin for the UAV group moving from Donetsk to Kharkiv; this will clarify if they are launched from deep rear areas or mobile platforms near the LOC.
[STABILIZATION] Monitor for signs of the "Counter-Terrorism Operation" (CTO) designation in Kherson, such as new checkpoints or restricted movement for civilians, which would confirm the MCHS demining units' role in a wider security crackdown.
