Kharkiv Air Threat: Ukrainian Air Force confirmed launches of guided aerial bombs (KAB) by Russian tactical aviation targeting the Kharkiv region (1933Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH).
Zaporizhzhia Defensive Success: A Russian attempt to break through Ukrainian lines in the Zaporizhzhia sector has reportedly failed. This contradicts earlier Russian claims of capturing Krynichne, suggesting the frontline remains contested or the Russian advance was repelled (1922Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM).
High-Value Target Engagement: The Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (SBS) claim the destruction of a Russian S-300VM air defense system in Donetsk Oblast. Thermal drone footage supports the claim, though an anomalous timestamp (17.02.2026) in the video suggests a potential delay in reporting or metadata error (1920Z, SBS, MEDIUM).
Sustained Belgorod Strikes: Continued nighttime strikes on Belgorod infrastructure have been documented, showing impacts on residential and critical infrastructure areas (1920Z, Kotsnews/Hayabusa, HIGH).
Diplomatic Expansion: In Geneva, Russia and the US have reportedly agreed to create an economic working group alongside existing military-political tracks. Concurrently, Russian messaging has introduced hybrid "negotiation" topics, including $1bn in frozen assets for Gaza and an "understanding of Alaska" (1919Z/1935Z, TASS/Lavrov, MEDIUM).
Internal Unity Push: President Zelenskyy issued a video address emphasizing national unity and the prioritization of defense over "personal matters," likely a direct effort to stabilize the information environment following the Zaluzhnyi interview fallout (1940Z, Zelenskyy, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy/Kupyansk):
Tactical: Russian activity remains high despite weather. The 18th Motor Rifle Division (RU) is conducting drone strikes on Ukrainian strongpoints in the Velykyi Burluk district.
Environmental: Kharkiv/Vovchansk: -4.3°C, light freezing rain, 100% cloud cover. These conditions severely degrade drone (FPV) and ISR operations. Russia is leveraging KABs (guided bombs) to strike targets while tactical UAVs are hampered by icing.
Threat: Russian MoD claims "Rubikon" UAV units are operating successfully in Sumy despite snow; this suggests specialized equipment or cold-weather resilient platforms are being prioritized.
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas/Siversk/Pokrovsk):
Tactical: Intensive FPV drone activity continues in the Pokrovsk sector (reported by RU unit "Rangers").
Environmental: Pokrovsk: 0.9°C, light rain. High soil saturation continues to impede heavy mechanized maneuver, forcing a reliance on small-unit infantry actions and drone strikes.
AD Attrition: The reported loss of an S-300VM system in Donetsk degrades the Russian air defense bubble, potentially creating temporary windows for UAF aviation or long-range drone strikes.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Tactical: The reported failed breakthrough (1922Z) suggests the 127th Division (RU) is meeting stiff resistance. The situation in Krynichne (previously reported as a loss) is likely a "grey zone" or remains under UAF control.
Environmental: Orikhiv/Zaporizhzhia: 3.5°C, light rain. Kherson: 0.0°C, light snow. Ground conditions are suboptimal for maneuver.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (Tactical): Use of KABs in the North (Kharkiv) indicates a shift to "all-weather" stand-off munitions to compensate for the icing that grounds lighter UAVs.
Hybrid Operations: The launch of a "Russia - Islamic World" grant program in occupied Luhansk (1930Z) and the Syrian "humanitarian hub" proposal (1940Z) are clear efforts to bolster Russia's image as a global actor and distract from the stagnation of the Geneva talks.
Course of Action (Negotiations): Russian sources are circulating rumors of a "demilitarized zone" in Donbas (UNCONFIRMED, LOW). This is likely a trial balloon intended to gauge Western/Ukrainian willingness to freeze the conflict on current lines.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strikes: Continued pressure on Belgorod indicates a deliberate strategy to force Russian air defense and electronic warfare assets away from the front to protect sovereign Russian territory.
Strategic Communication: High-level focus on internal cohesion. The President's direct address serves to mitigate the risk of military-civilian friction following recent leadership critiques.
Information environment / disinformation
"The Alaska Bait": Lavrov's mention of "Alaska" in the context of Geneva is likely a high-level trolling tactic designed to generate Western headlines and project strength to a domestic audience.
Historical Weaponization: Pro-Russian channels (Colonelcassad) are leveraging the 11th anniversary of the Debaltseve withdrawal to demoralize UAF forces and frame the current conflict through the lens of past Ukrainian setbacks.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Continued KAB strikes in Kharkiv and Sumy as Russia exploits the current icing window that limits UAF drone-based counter-battery and ISR capabilities.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A night-time mechanized assault in the Zaporizhzhia sector if the Russian 127th Division can consolidate after the reported "failed breakthrough" and exploit the Zaporizhzhia OVA alert status.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLE MAP] Urgent clarification on the control of Krynichne (Zaporizhzhia); identify if the "failed breakthrough" occurred at the settlement or in the vicinity.
[WEATHER IMPACT] Determine if the "Rubikon" UAVs (RU) are using heater-equipped batteries or specialized airframes that bypass current freezing rain limitations.
[POLITICAL] Monitor for reaction to the "economic working group" announcement in Geneva; verify if this signals a real shift in negotiations or a stalling tactic.
