Geneva Negotiations Deadlock: Following a second day of talks, President Zelenskyy characterized results as "insufficient," noting that while military-to-military discussions were "serious," political compromises are not yet ready. Russia reportedly continues to demand a full UAF withdrawal from the Donetsk region. (1807Z, Zelenskiy/Official; 1806Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH).
Emerging Threat to Kostiantynivka: Russian forces have increased pressure toward Berestok and Illinivka, specifically aiming to threaten the tactical hub of Kostiantynivka. (1750Z, DeepState, HIGH).
Claimed Russian Incursion into Dnepropetrovsk Region: The Russian MoD claims the "Vostok" group seized a UAF stronghold within the Dnepropetrovsk region border. This follows earlier reports of fighting near the border. (1814Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM - UNCONFIRMED).
State-Led Telegram Throttling: Russian authorities (Roskomnadzor) have reportedly begun slowing the download of "heavy files" on Telegram. While officials claim SVO-zone operations are unaffected, this suggests a tightening of the domestic information space. (1817Z, TASS, HIGH).
Active Ballistic Threat: UAF Air Force issued a priority warning for ballistic missile threats, specifically impacting the Zaporizhzhia region. (1804Z, Air Force ZSU, HIGH).
Joint Russo-Iranian Naval Drills: Reports indicate upcoming joint naval exercises between Russia and Iran, framed by Russian media as a response to US regional posture. (1755Z, Operativnyi ZSU, MEDIUM).
Threat Assessment: The frozen ground (minimums of -11°C) remains the primary enabler for Russian heavy mechanized units. UAF continues to use drones to target shelters in the snow (1751Z, Sternenko), but visibility and wind (5.4 m/s) are marginal for light FPVs.
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas/Pokrovsk/Svatove):
Kostiantynivka Axis: Russian pressure is pivoting toward Berestok and Illinivka. This suggests a localized effort to outflank current defensive lines rather than a direct frontal assault on Kostiantynivka.
Pokrovsk/Donetsk: 1.0°C, light rain. The risk of airframe icing for drones remains critical.
Svatove: -3.0°C, overcast. No significant changes in frontline geometry.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Zaporizhzhia: 3.2°C, light rain. Soil remains soft (Rasputitsa). Russian forces are attempting to move personnel via "Bukhanka" vans, which are being successfully interdicted by UAF kamikaze drones (1751Z, Butusov Plus). A ballistic threat alert remains active for this sector (1804Z).
Course of Action (Tactical): Russia is transitioning from large-scale mechanized assaults (stymied by mud in the south) to targeted pressure points in the East (Berestok/Illinivka) while utilizing "unconfirmed" claims of entering new regions (Dnepropetrovsk) to create psychological pressure during the Geneva deadlock.
Logistics/C2: The slowing of Telegram downloads by Roskomnadzor suggests a move to control the narrative among the milblogger community or a test of censorship infrastructure during sensitive diplomatic windows.
Adaptation: Use of vans ("Bukhankas") for rapid infantry insertion in the mud suggests a lack of armored transport availability or a tactical choice to minimize thermal and auditory signatures, though they remain highly vulnerable to FPV strikes.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Resilience: UAF units (157th OMBr and 422nd UAV Battalion) continue to maintain effective thermal surveillance and strike capabilities despite the rain/snow transition.
Diplomatic Maneuver: The Ukrainian delegation has maintained a firm stance in Geneva, resisting demands for territorial concessions (withdrawal from Donetsk) despite Russian kinetic pressure.
Multi-Domain Defense: Air Force is actively monitoring and alerting on ballistic threats, indicating a heightened state of readiness for Russian stand-off strikes following the UAF's massive UAV campaign reported earlier.
Information environment / disinformation
"The Zaluzhnyi Shock": Russian channels (Kotsnews, Starshoie Eddy) are aggressively amplifying domestic Ukrainian criticism of leadership to foster internal division following the Geneva stalemate.
Middle East Diversion: Continued framing of US attention as being entirely absorbed by Israel/Iran to suggest Ukraine is being de-prioritized.
Internal Patriotism: Russian channels are using "human interest" stories (e.g., a child in Kursk collecting flags) to bolster domestic support for the invasion amidst reports of mobilization and economic strain.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Russian forces will continue localized infantry probes in the Berestok-Illinivka corridor to test UAF reaction times under poor weather conditions. Ballistic missile strikes on Zaporizhzhia or Dnipro are likely within the window.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A confirmed mechanized breakthrough into the Dnepropetrovsk region from the Vremevka salient, aimed at destabilizing the rear logistics of the Southern front while UAF is focused on the Donetsk defense.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLESPACE GEOMETRY] Confirm the exact location and scale of the Russian "stronghold" claim in the Dnepropetrovsk region. Is this a border-straddling position or a deeper incursion?
[WEAPONRY] Monitor for the deployment of "Molniya-2" fixed-wing drones in the northern sector, as these may bypass the wind/icing constraints affecting quadcopters.
[C3I] Assess the impact of Russian Telegram throttling on frontline Russian unit coordination and volunteer supply networks.
