Deep Strike on Logistics (Donetsk): Ukrainian "Phoenix" UAV Group successfully engaged a Russian convoy (9 trucks, 3 vans) near Donetsk at a range exceeding 50 km. Thermal footage confirms multiple hits (1209Z, Sternenko, HIGH).
Telegram Restriction Reversal: Russian Minister of Digital Development Shadaev stated that Telegram will NOT be restricted in the "SMO" zone for now, characterizing a ban as "premature" despite the ongoing push for domestic platforms like "MAX" (1158Z, Alex Parker/Operativno ZSU, HIGH).
Critical Logistics Threat: Hungarian FM Péter Szijjártó reportedly declared a total halt of diesel fuel exports to Ukraine. Resumption is allegedly tied to the restoration of Russian oil flow via the "Druzhba" pipeline (1217Z, TASS, MEDIUM/UNCONFIRMED).
Internal Security (Kharkiv): The SBU detained a 17-year-old female agent in Kharkiv allegedly caught "red-handed" planting an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) intended for use during curfew (1158Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
Tactical POW Capture (Vovchansk): Operators from the UAF 57th Brigade captured a Russian soldier in a dugout near Vovchansk, indicating ongoing close-quarters combat in the northern border sector (1156Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH).
Aerial Threat (Sumy): AFU Air Force reports Russian UAV activity on the northern outskirts of Sumy (1153Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
Localized Flooding (LNR): The Evsug River has overflowed its banks near Dmitrievka (Novoaidar district), rendering several local roads impassable. This adds a "mud/water" obstacle to a sector already facing freezing conditions (1217Z, Mash na Donbasse, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Current Conditions: Vovchansk (-5.6°C, overcast); Sumy area under active UAV threat.
Activity: Tactical-level success for UAF 57th Brigade with Russian POW capture. SBU activity in Kharkiv highlights a persistent internal threat from FSB-recruited subversives.
IPB Assessment: Frozen ground (-5.6°C) remains conducive to mechanized movement. High cloud cover (96%) continues to limit optical ISR, likely prompting the increased use of tactical UAVs by both sides.
Activity: UAF deep-strike capability demonstrated near Donetsk (50km+ range) targets Russian logistics nodes. In the Luhansk region (Novoaidar), localized flooding of the Evsug river is creating significant movement restrictions for wheeled vehicles.
IPB Assessment: Freezing rain in Pokrovsk is a critical degrader for FPV drone fleets. Russian forces may seek to exploit this "drone-blindness" for localized infantry advances. The flooding in Dmitrievka suggests a thaw-freeze cycle or drainage failure that creates unpredictable "islands" of impassable terrain.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Current Conditions: Orikhiv (2.1°C, light rain); Kherson (0.2°C, light rain).
Activity: Ground remains soft/muddy due to temperatures above freezing.
IPB Assessment: Operations remain characterized by attrition and artillery duels. The reported Hungarian diesel halt (if confirmed) would most acutely affect logistics and mechanized maneuver in these southern sectors, which are heavily reliant on fuel-intensive sustainment lines.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (C2): The decision to maintain Telegram usage in the field indicates the Russian MoD's inability to deploy a viable alternative (MAX) under combat conditions without collapsing tactical communication.
Course of Action (Hybrid): Use of "expendable" agents (minors) for IED placement in Kharkiv suggests a shift toward low-cost, high-disruption urban subversion to divert SBU resources from frontline support.
Mobilization: St. Petersburg State University (SPbGU) is reportedly offering 50,000-ruble incentives for students to sign military contracts, signaling continued pressure to find manpower without a formal mobilization wave (1215Z, Sever.Realii).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Logistics & Infrastructure: A new agreement signed with Lithuania, Sweden, and Canada to create a "Transport Support Fund for Ukraine" aims to bolster long-term logistics resilience (1212Z, Dva Mayora).
Asymmetric Strikes: The "Phoenix" UAV strike (50km range) confirms that Ukrainian tactical units are successfully extending the "kill web" into the Russian tactical rear, even during periods of poor weather.
Information environment / disinformation
"The Druzhba Leverage": Russian state media is highlighting Hungarian diesel cuts to frame Ukraine as being in a "logistics stranglehold" by its neighbors. Confidence: MEDIUM.
Zelenskyy Character Assassination: RU-aligned channels (Colonelcassad) are circulating edited videos with fabricated dates to allege Presidential instability. This likely aims to amplify the "Zaluzhnyi rift" narrative from the previous 12h.
Civil Compliance: Ukrainian media (RBK-UA) is emphasizing strict legal consequences for spreading fakes or hate speech online, likely a measure to counter Russian cognitive operations during the Geneva deadlock.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Continued Russian UAV probes in the Sumy/Kharkiv sector. Potential localized Russian infantry assaults in the Pokrovsk sector under the cover of freezing rain/low visibility.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A coordinated logistics "shock" if the Hungarian fuel halt triggers immediate supply shortfalls on the Southern Front, combined with IED/subversive strikes in rear-area hubs like Kharkiv.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[STRATEGIC] Confirmation of the status of Hungarian diesel supplies via Ukrainian MoE or independent European energy monitors.
[OPERATIONAL] Assessment of the impact of the Evsug river flooding on Russian supply lines in the Novoaidar-Svatove axis.
[TACTICAL] Verification of the "Phoenix" UAV strike technical specs—specifically, the platform used to achieve 50km+ range in thermal conditions.
