Geneva Negotiations (Day 2): Official confirmation from UA Defense Minister Umerov that the second round of trilateral talks (Ukraine, US, Russia) has commenced, focusing on political and military working groups; sources suggest talks may conclude by midday (0849Z, 0904Z, Umerov/TASS, HIGH).
Territorial Claims (Sumy/Zaporizhzhia): The Russian Ministry of Defense (RuMoD) claims the "liberation" of Kharkivka (Sumy Oblast) and Krynychne (Zaporizhzhia Oblast); these claims remain UNCONFIRMED by independent or Ukrainian sources (0909Z, 0912Z, TASS/Kotsnews, LOW).
UA Military Regulatory Reform: Presidential Decree №108/2026 introduced significant changes to service conditions, including revised minimum contract periods, accelerated promotions for combat personnel, and new contract options for volunteers aged 60+ (0859Z, UA MoD, HIGH).
UAV/Counter-UAV Tech: Russian 71st Guards Regiment is conducting field trials of the "Bogomol V3" tracked UGV for logistics/EW resupply in snowy conditions (Orekhiv axis). Separately, UA reports a Russian drone-repeater network deployed in Belarus to extend the range of strikes into northern Ukraine (0859Z, 0918Z, Colonelcassad/Zelensky, MEDIUM).
Strategic Sabotage (Poland): A fuel train destined for Ukraine was nearly derailed in Poland due to suspected sabotage; investigation is ongoing (0908Z, RBC-UA, MEDIUM).
Tactical Strike Success (UA): The 412th Brigade "Nemesis" confirmed a successful strike on a Russian "Osa" SAM system in the Donetsk region using drone assets (0911Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy/Chernihiv):
Current Conditions: -7.4°C in Vovchansk (light snow); -5.3°C in Svatove (snow). Ground is frozen, supporting mechanized mobility.
Activity: RuMoD claims capture of Kharkivka. Russian aviation conducted strikes on Kucherivka and Volfyne (Sumy). A UA UAV command post in Beryoza (Sumy) was reportedly struck by Lancet/Tornado-S munitions (0909Z, 0917Z).
IPB Assessment: The claim on Kharkivka suggests a Russian attempt to expand the "buffer zone" in Sumy during the Geneva talks. High UAV activity persists near Pechenihy and Krasnopavlivka (Kharkiv), likely spotting for artillery.
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas/Pokrovsk):
Current Conditions: -1.2°C in Pokrovsk (overcast).
Activity: Heavy clashes reported yesterday near Kurylivka (Kupyansk), Zarichne (Lyman), and Stupochky (Kramatorsk). In the Pokrovsk direction, fighting concentrated near Rodynske and Kotlyne (0900Z).
IPB Assessment: Russian pressure remains consistent across the Donetsk arc. The destruction of an "Osa" SAM system near the front line indicates UAF is successfully hunting Russian short-range AD to maintain local drone superiority.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Current Conditions: 1.4°C in Orikhiv. 0.1°C in Kherson.
Activity: RuMoD claims capture of Krynychne. Significant VKS activity reported with KAB strikes across multiple settlements including Vozdvyzhivka and Mala Tokmachka (0900Z). Russian 71st Guards Reg testing "Bogomol V3" UGV for frontline resupply (0859Z).
IPB Assessment: If the Krynychne claim is verified, it indicates a tactical shift or exploitation of a gap in the Zaporizhzhia line. The use of UGVs suggests the enemy is attempting to automate logistics in high-attrition "grey zones" where FPV drones make manual resupply impossible.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptations: Russia is integrating commercial drones into logistics, utilizing them to deliver fresh bread from mobile field bakeries to forward positions (0902Z), and testing tracked UGVs to bypass the visibility/attrition constraints of winter warfare.
Internal Friction: Reports of a "revolt" in the Belgorod region ("BNR") over a two-week lack of heating, resulting in the seizure of utility workers, suggests deteriorating civilian morale in Russian border regions (0903Z).
C2/Information Security: The Kremlin continues its phased shutdown of alternative C2 channels (Telegram/TamTam), with Roskomnadzor now claiming "foreign intelligence" access to Telegram data to justify the suppression (0853Z, 0908Z, 0910Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Personnel Policy: Decree №108/2026 is a clear move to professionalize and incentivize the force, addressing long-term sustainability by streamlining promotions for combat-proven NCOs and officers.
Defensive Posture: UAF continues to leverage high-end drone units (like "Nemesis") for precision attrition of high-value targets (SAMs, C2 nodes) to offset Russian mass.
Deep Pressure: Continued missile/drone threats into Bryansk (Klimovsky district) keep Russian air defenses fixed and on high alert (0855Z).
Information environment / disinformation
"Nuclear Escalation" Narrative: TASS is amplifying Estonian statements regarding NATO nuclear weapons to reinforce the "NATO aggression" narrative for domestic audiences (0859Z).
"Lukashenko Sanctions" Narrative: Pro-Russian channels are using the new UA sanctions against Lukashenko to portray President Zelensky as "irrational," likely aiming to justify future Russian escalatory moves from Belarusian territory (0904Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Russia will maintain high-intensity aviation and artillery strikes in the Sumy and Zaporizhzhia sectors to consolidate reported gains before the Geneva talks wrap.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A coordinated multi-axis push in the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka sector, utilizing the current overcast conditions to mask armor movements from UA aerial surveillance.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL] Immediate verification of the operational status of Kharkivka (Sumy) and Krynychne (Zaporizhzhia).
[TECHNICAL] Signal intelligence (SIGINT) on the reported Russian drone-repeater system in Belarus; identify frequencies and node locations.
[LOGISTICAL] Assess the severity of the rail sabotage in Poland and its immediate impact on fuel reserves for the Eastern Group of Forces.
