Zaporizhzhia KAB Strike: Russian tactical aviation launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) toward Zaporizhzhia city (0450Z, UA AF, HIGH). Local authorities report 1 KIA and 7 WIA following strikes in the region (0510Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH).
UA Amphibious Operation (Unconfirmed): Russian sources claim a Ukrainian "desant" (landing) occurred near Stepnohirsk and Prymorske. While claiming to have "localized" the threat, Russian units are reportedly engaged in heavy clearing operations in Prymorske and Mahdalynivka (0513Z, Rybar, LOW).
Northern UAV Incursion: OWA UAVs are active over Chernihiv Oblast (Snovsk/Ponornytsia), displaying erratic "changing direction" flight paths to complicate interception (0501Z, UA AF, HIGH).
Strategic Referendum Announcement: President Zelenskyy stated that any US-Ukraine mediated peace agreement must be ratified via an all-Ukrainian referendum, likely a move to maintain domestic legitimacy during ongoing Geneva talks (0454Z, Tsaplienko/Zelenskyy, HIGH).
Moscow Infrastructure Disruption: The official website of Sheremetyevo International Airport (SVO) is offline due to "technical reasons." This occurs as the Ru MoD confirms 43 UAVs were intercepted overnight (0507Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
Vremivka Sector Air Activity: Russian 11th Air Army conducted bombing runs against UAF positions near Kolomiytsi (0515Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM).
Ru Force Sustainment Issues: Significant public fundraising campaigns are underway for the 110th Motorized Rifle Brigade and other units in the Donetsk sector, specifically for Mavic drones and communication gear, suggesting continued logistical strain (0450Z, 0501Z, RuVesna/Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Chernihiv):
Current Conditions: Kharkiv/Vovchansk at -9.9°C, overcast. Soil frozen.
IPB Assessment: The appearance of UAVs in Chernihiv (0501Z) indicates a widening of the aerial threat envelope beyond the Kharkiv axis. Frozen ground continues to facilitate potential mechanized movement, but extreme cold (-9.9°C to -11.0°C) limits infantry operational tempo.
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas/Svatove/Pokrovsk):
Current Conditions:
Luhansk/Svatove: Snow (-6.7°C), 100% cloud cover.
Donetsk/Pokrovsk: Snow grains (-2.3°C), high winds (7.1 m/s forecast).
IPB Assessment: Increased snowfall in Svatove and snow grains in Pokrovsk are severely degrading ISR capabilities. High wind gusts (up to 7.1 m/s) will likely ground lighter FPV drones. Russian bombardment in the Vremivka sector (Kolomiytsi) suggests a widening of the air offensive to disrupt UAF tactical depth.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Current Conditions: Near freezing (-0.1°C to -0.7°C) with light rain showers forecast for Orikhiv.
Active Engagement:CRITICAL. The Zaporizhzhia sector is the current kinetic focus. Russian claims of "localizing" a Ukrainian landing near Stepnohirsk (0513Z) suggest a high-intensity engagement in the riverine/coastal zone. The use of KABs against Zaporizhzhia city indicates a coordinated attempt to strike command and logistics nodes supporting these reported UAF maneuvers.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: Russia is transitioning from defensive posture to localized counter-attacks in the Zaporizhzhia sector (Prymorske/Mahdalynivka).
Logistics: Continued reliance on "Narodny Front" and volunteer fundraising for basic communication and ISR gear (0501Z) indicates that formal MoD supply chains remain inadequate for frontline needs in the Donetsk direction.
Internal Suppression: The closure of the "Open Space" NGO (0515Z) aligns with a broader trend of hardening the Russian rear against internal dissent during the active phase of the "Special Military Operation."
Friendly activity (UAF)
Multi-Domain Pressure: UAF continues to leverage deep-strike UAV packages to disrupt Russian logistics/morale (43 UAVs claimed by Ru MoD). The SVO airport website outage (0507Z) may be a secondary effect of cyber or electronic warfare operations accompanying these strikes.
Amphibious/Coastal Operations: (Unconfirmed) Potential tactical landings in the Stepnohirsk axis suggest UAF is testing Russian coastal defenses despite the onset of winter conditions.
Information environment / disinformation
Geneva Narrative Shift: Following the exposure of "fake" progress reports, Russian MFA (Zakharova) is now officially acknowledging the talks as "meaningful" (0517Z). This is a tactical pivot intended to frame Russia as the "reasonable" actor.
Zelenskyy Counter-Op: The referendum announcement (0454Z) is a direct counter to Russian info-ops, signaling to the Ukrainian public that no "secret deals" will be forced upon the nation.
Mobilization Propaganda: Russian channels (0505Z) continue to circulate videos of "forced mobilization" in Ukraine to degrade Ukrainian morale and fuel civil unrest.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Russian aviation will continue KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia to isolate the reported UAF landing zones. Ground forces will attempt to consolidate gains in Prymorske/Mahdalynivka.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A major VKS strike package, utilizing the 6-ship formation identified earlier, targets critical energy or logistics infrastructure in the Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia corridor while UAF is focused on the Stepnohirsk engagement.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL] Corroborate Russian claims of the UAF landing at Stepnohirsk/Prymorske via independent visual or signals intelligence.
[OPERATIONAL] Assess the impact of the KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia's logistical throughput toward the southern front.
[CYBER] Determine if the Sheremetyevo (SVO) outage is a confirmed result of a UAF-aligned cyber operation or incidental technical failure.
