Zaporizhzhia KAB Strike: Ukrainian Air Force confirmed multiple launches of guided aerial bombs (KABs) by Russian tactical aviation targeting Zaporizhzhia (0205Z, 0211Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
Claimed Russian Advance (Prymorske): Russian Ministry of Defense claims the capture and clearing of Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia region; footage shows drone strikes and ground movement (0204Z, TASS, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
Kharkiv Air Threat: Russian tactical aviation launched KABs toward eastern Kharkiv region; one UAV detected in southern Kharkiv on a NE course (0206Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH).
Critical Weather Shift: Freezing rain reported in Orikhiv (-0.6°C) and heavy snow forecast for Svatove (16.1mm) significantly impacts mobility and aerial ISR (0215Z, Open-Meteo, HIGH).
Technical/Information Op: Reports of a massive YouTube outage via Downdetector; timing coincides with intensified kinetic operations (0218Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Vovchansk/Belgorod):
Current Conditions: Kharkiv/Vovchansk is -11.3°C, overcast, with a 100% probability of light snow (8.3mm) over the next 24 hours.
IPB Assessment: Russian tactical aviation is exploiting 99% cloud cover to launch KAB strikes on eastern Kharkiv (0206Z). The detection of a UAV on a NE course suggests a return to Russian base or a repositioning flight after an ISR mission. Frozen ground supports armor, but incoming snow will degrade visual-spectrum drone spotting.
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas/Pokrovsk/Svatove):
Current Conditions: Svatove (-6.3°C) and Pokrovsk (-2.6°C) are under 100% cloud cover with active snow. Svatove expects 16.1mm of snow, the highest on the front.
IPB Assessment: The heavy snow forecast for Svatove/Luhansk will create near-zero visibility conditions for small UAVs. This environment provides the enemy with a "weather screen" for repositioning tactical reserves. In Pokrovsk, "snow grains" (code 77) indicate unstable atmospheric conditions that may interfere with radio-frequency stability for FPV drone links.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Current Conditions: Orikhiv and Kherson are at -0.6°C. Orikhiv is experiencing light freezing rain (code 66).
IPB Assessment: The freezing rain in the Zaporizhzhia sector is the most critical tactical variable. Icing on roads, optical sensors, and airframes significantly degrades both UAF and enemy capabilities. However, Russian forces appear to be pushing through this weather, as evidenced by KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia (0211Z) and the claimed clearing operations in Prymorske (0204Z). If Prymorske is confirmed lost, it suggests a Russian attempt to straighten the line near the Kakhovka Reservoir.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Tactics: The Russian Air Force is leaning heavily on KABs in both the Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia sectors. This suggests a desire to suppress UAF defensive positions without committing ground forces to areas where freezing rain makes mechanized movement treacherous.
Ground Course of Action: The claim of "liberating" Prymorske (0204Z) may be an attempt to capitalize on the tactical alert (0200Z) and the icing conditions to achieve a localized breakthrough.
Logistics: Russian milbloggers are pushing narratives of "heroic" ammo delivery under fire (0210Z), likely to counter internal reports of logistics strain or to boost morale ahead of the forecasted heavy snow.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense & Early Warning: UAF Air Force and Zaporizhzhia OVA are providing near-real-time alerts (0200Z-0211Z) to mitigate the impact of KAB strikes.
Defense in Adverse Weather: UAF units in the south are likely prioritizing the de-icing of equipment and maintaining signal integrity for electronic warfare (EW) systems as the freezing rain persists.
Information environment / disinformation
Battlefield Narratives: The TASS release of Prymorske footage (0204Z) is a rapid attempt to establish a "success" narrative. This requires immediate verification as it may be recycled or gray-zone footage.
Digital Infrastructure: The YouTube outage (0218Z) could be a localized Russian move to restrict access to non-state-controlled information during the reported offensive actions or a broader technical failure. Its reporting by TASS suggests it is being used to highlight "Western platform instability."
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Continued high-frequency KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv to fix UAF forces in place while the weather (freezing rain/snow) prevents effective UAF counter-drone and counter-battery operations.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A mechanized assault in the Svatove sector during the 16.1mm snow event. The heavy snow will blind UAF aerial ISR, potentially allowing Russian units to bypass forward strongpoints and reach secondary defensive lines before detection.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[GEOLOCATION] Urgently geolocate the MoD footage of "Prymorske" to confirm the extent of the Russian advance and the current status of the settlement.
[WEATHER IMPACT] Assess the impact of freezing rain on UAF air defense radar and sensor performance in the Orikhiv/Zaporizhzhia sector.
[COMMUNICATIONS] Monitor if the YouTube outage is tied to broader internet/Starlink disruptions in the southern operational zone.
