New UAV Incursion (Mykolaiv): Two (2) additional Shahed-type UAVs detected transiting from the Parutyne area toward Galitsynovo and the Oktyabrskoe district (2311Z, Nikolaev Vanyek, HIGH).
Multi-Vector Air Threat: Ukrainian Air Force confirms UAVs are approaching Mykolaiv city from the south, indicating a coordinated multi-directional probe or strike on the city and its port infrastructure (2317Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
Combat Activity (Pokrovsk/Dnipropetrovsk Border): Russian "Center" Military Group claims to have destroyed Ukrainian infantry and equipment near Pokrovsk and along the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border; footage of strikes is circulating on Russian channels (2259Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM).
Diplomatic Status: Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov reported that negotiations (likely Geneva) have transitioned to discussing "practical questions," suggesting a move toward technical or logistical details rather than purely political posturing (2259Z, Operatsiya Z/Umerov, MEDIUM).
Russian Internal Security: Russian State Duma is proposing a ban on foreigners changing their "purpose of visit" after entry, indicating further tightening of internal migration and security controls (2253Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Luhansk):
Vovchansk: Temperature is steady at -11.1°C with clear skies (2% cloud).
IPB Assessment: Ideal conditions for heavy mechanized movement persist. The hard freeze provides maximum ground trafficability for Russian T-80/T-90 units near the border.
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas):
Pokrovsk:-3.0°C with light snow and 100% cloud cover.
IPB Assessment: Russian forces ("Center" Group) are actively attempting to exploit the weather-induced "drone-blindness." The reported engagements in both Pokrovsk and the Dnipropetrovsk border region suggest Russian attempts to broaden the front or push toward the administrative boundary under the cover of snowfall.
Mykolaiv/Ochakiv: Active air defense engagement. The arrival of a second wave of UAVs from Parutyne (south) suggests a concentrated effort to saturate the air defense network around the Mykolaiv port and the Southern Bug estuary.
Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia):-1.0°C with light snow (100% cloud). Precipitation is ongoing (0.2mm/hr).
Kherson:-0.9°C, overcast, 100% cloud.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation/UAV: Russia is using the southern maritime vector (Parutyne/Ochakiv) to funnel Shaheds into the Mykolaiv hub. This likely targets specific logistics nodes or air defense radar sites that have been identified during earlier evening probes.
Tactical Shift: In the Pokrovsk sector, the "Center" Group appears to be utilizing thermal-capable reconnaissance drones (evidenced by claims of video documentation) to overcome the low-visibility (snow) conditions that are currently hampering standard Ukrainian FPV operations.
Hybrid/Legislative: The proposal to restrict foreign visit purposes (TASS) suggests a move to simplify the identification and tracking of non-citizens, potentially to facilitate easier mobilization sweeps or to mitigate the risk of foreign-led sabotage.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: UA Air Force and local OBAs (Zaporizhzhia/Mykolaiv) are in a high-alert posture. Mobile fire groups are positioned to intercept the southern UAV vector.
Diplomatic Maneuver: Minister Umerov’s shift toward "practical questions" suggests Ukraine may be negotiating specific concessions or humanitarian corridors, potentially as a stalling tactic or to address immediate logistical pressures.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Narrative: Russian mil-channels (Operatsiya Z) are emphasizing successes at the Dnipropetrovsk border. This is likely intended to create a sense of psychological pressure on the Ukrainian rear and suggest that the "Donbas defense" is being bypassed.
Geneva Context: The reporting of Umerov's comments on Russian channels suggests Moscow is monitoring Ukrainian internal transparency regarding the negotiations to look for signs of domestic political friction.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV strikes on Mykolaiv and Ochakiv through the night. Russian storm groups will likely maintain high-intensity infantry pressure in the Pokrovsk sector while the snow continues to degrade UA drone visibility.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A sudden mechanized push in the Kharkiv sector utilizing the -11.1°C hard freeze. With skies clear, Russian aviation may provide close air support (CAS) to any such breakthrough attempt before the weather shifts.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL] Need verification of the "Dnipropetrovsk border" engagements; specifically, have Russian units reached the administrative line or are these long-range strikes (FPV/Artillery)?
[OPERATIONAL] Monitoring of Russian airfields (e.g., Belbek, Primorsko-Akhtarsk) for a second wave of missile or UAV launches timed for the 0300-0500Z window.
[TECHNICAL] Assessment of whether Russian "Center" Group is using a new batch of weather-resistant or thermal-enhanced FPV drones in the Pokrovsk sector.
