Geneva Expansion: Negotiations now include National Security Advisors from France, Germany, Italy, and the UK, indicating a shift from trilateral to multilateral framework (1533Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH).
Lyman Offensive: Russian "Yug" (Southern) grouping has initiated localized offensive operations toward Lyman/Slavyansk, claiming success near Zakotnoye; capture of Minkovka remains UNCONFIRMED (1525Z, Rybar, MEDIUM).
Nuclear Posture Friction: US State Dept confirms no agreement with Russia on maintaining New START (DSNV) limits; decisions on resuming live nuclear testing remain pending (1521Z, 1529Z, TASS, HIGH).
Tactical Communication Failure: Ukrainian Intelligence (GUR) reports the failure of Russian attempts to field a "Starlink analogue," forcing continued reliance on vulnerable domestic systems (1546Z, RBC-UA, MEDIUM).
Ballistic Threat: A high-priority alert for ballistic missile usage has been issued across Ukraine (1547Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
Humanitarian Milestone: 2,000 children successfully repatriated to Ukraine via the "Bring Kids Back UA" initiative (1534Z, Zelensky, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Luhansk):
Lyman Direction: Russian forces are attempting to seize high ground. Intense combat is reported around Reznykovka. The "Yug" grouping is prioritizing the Zakotnoye axis to threaten the Slavyansk approach (1525Z, Rybar, MEDIUM).
Air Activity: RU aviation conducted KAB (guided bomb) strikes on Kharkiv regional targets (1527Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
Weather: Kharkiv/Vovchansk is at -7.2°C with 68% cloud cover. The hard freeze supports continued mechanized movement, but extreme cold is taxing personnel endurance.
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas):
Krasnopillia: Russian "Sparta" battalion claims destruction of a UAF M777 howitzer via FPV drone (1539Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
Pokrovsk: Overcast (100% cloud) with light snow beginning (-2.1°C). High probability (78%) of worsening snow conditions will likely ground tactical FPV assets within the next 3-6 hours.
3. Southern Sector:
Zaporizhzhia: RU aviation is actively launching KAB strikes across the oblast (1524Z, UA Air Force, HIGH). Orikhiv is currently at -0.3°C with heavy snow forecast (90% probability), which will severely limit CAS (Close Air Support) effectiveness.
Mykolaiv/Kherson: UAV incursions detected moving toward Snihurivka (1525Z, UA Air Force, HIGH). Light snow is currently falling in Kherson (-0.7°C), complicating visual reconnaissance.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Courses of Action: RU forces are exploiting the "Yug" grouping's momentum in the Lyman sector to test UA defensive depth before the forecasted heavy snow obscures the battlefield.
Sustainment: The 51st Army received a significant delivery of armored vehicles and drones funded by regional Russian authorities (Yamal), highlighting a continued reliance on non-MoD procurement streams (1526Z, NM DNR, HIGH).
Strategic Signaling: Statements regarding New START and nuclear testing are likely intended as "escalation management" tools to influence the ongoing Geneva talks.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Manoeuvre: UA units in the Lyman sector are conducting high-intensity defensive operations on the heights to prevent a breakthrough toward Slavyansk.
Air Defense: Alert status remains at maximum due to the confirmed threat of ballistic strikes (1547Z).
Strategic Communications: The high-profile announcement of the 2,000th repatriated child serves to bolster domestic morale and maintain international pressure on Russia during the Geneva negotiations.
Information environment / disinformation
RU Domestic Friction: Protests outside the Roskomnadzor (RKN) office using recorded insults from Sergey Mironov indicate growing internal dissatisfaction with the Telegram blockade (1525Z, ASTRA, HIGH). Pro-war channels are encouraging users to migrate to "MAX," a domestic messenger, anticipating further restrictions (1531Z, NgP RaZvedka, MEDIUM).
Hybrid Narratives: Russian sources are amplifying quotes from Rheinmetall’s CEO regarding the war continuing through 2026 to project a narrative of Western "war-weariness" and the inevitability of a long-term conflict (1529Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM).
Mockery: Pro-RU channels are circulating images of F-35 aircraft allegedly using barbells as ballast to mock perceived Western technological delays (1521Z, Basurin, LOW).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Russian forces will continue KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv to compensate for the expected grounding of FPV drones due to heavy snow.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A synchronized ballistic missile strike on critical infrastructure or C2 hubs, timed with the active "ballistic threat" warning and the arrival of the snowstorm to maximize recovery delays.
Tactical Note: The onset of heavy snow in the South (Orikhiv/Kherson) will create a "sensor blind spot" for both sides.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLE DAMAGE] Verification of the reported M777 destruction near Krasnopillia and assessment of remaining artillery density in the Lyman sector.
[OPERATIONAL] Confirmation of the current control status of Minkovka; drone reconnaissance is required once weather permits.
[STRATEGIC] Assessment of the impact of the Telegram blockade on RU tactical "volunteer" logistics networks and whether transition to "MAX" is occurring at the unit level.
