Massed UAV Attack on Sumy: Several hits on civilian infrastructure in the Sumy city center reported following a concentrated drone wave (0927Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH).
Claimed Capture of Zapasnoye: Russian MoD released footage claiming the "liberation" of Zapasnoye (Zaporizhzhia sector) via FPV and reconnaissance drone-heavy assault operations (0919Z, MoD Russia, UNCONFIRMED/LOW).
UAF Drone Supply Constraints: The Sternenko Community fund reports a critical drop in procurement (below 200-300 units/day), forcing a restriction on fulfilling military requests for FPV drones (0928Z, Sternenko, HIGH).
Geneva Negotiation Delay: Kremlin spokesperson Peskov confirms negotiations will continue into tomorrow; no concrete results are expected today. Iran is also reportedly demanding full sanctions removal in parallel talks with the US (0922Z/0938Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
Advanced Digital Censorship: Roskomnadzor (RKN) has reportedly utilized AI-driven real-time traffic analysis to successfully block the VLESS VPN protocol at key nodes (0935Z, Alex Parker Returns, MEDIUM).
SSO Strike Confirmation: Footage confirms Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) used "FP-2" drones to strike over 10 targets in occupied Crimea and Southern Ukraine between Feb 9-14, including Iskander-M storage (0946Z, Mykolaiv Vanek, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Sumy: Under active engagement. Multiple UAV impacts in the city center targeting civilian infrastructure. (0927Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU).
Kharkiv/Vovchansk: Current temperature -6.1°C. UAV activity persists (0925Z). Ground remains frozen, but overcast conditions (62% cloud) are beginning to impact tactical visual ISR.
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas/Pokrovsk):
Pokrovsk: Current temperature -1.5°C with 67% cloud cover. Weather Warning: 93% probability of snow (3.6mm accumulation) within the next 3-6 hours. This will significantly degrade FPV drone effectiveness and optical sensors on both sides.
Dnipropetrovsk Border: Russian "Vostok" grouping (69th Brigade) is reportedly conducting drone-corrected strikes against UAF elements near the regional border (0930Z, Voin DV).
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Orikhiv/Zapasnoye: Russian forces claim control of Zapasnoye (0919Z). While unconfirmed by UAF sources, the reported use of FPV-heavy assault tactics aligns with recent Russian tactical adaptations.
Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk Axis: New KAB (guided bomb) launches detected at 0939Z, tracking toward southern Dnipropetrovsk region.
Weather: 90% probability of significant snow (5.6mm) today; temperature -0.2°C. Operations will likely shift from aerial ISR to heavy mechanized or infantry-led pushes as visibility drops.
4. Strategic Rear / Crimea:
Crimea/TOT: BDA confirmed for previous SSO strikes (Feb 9-14). The loss of a "Rubikon" piloting point and Iskander storage represents a localized degradation of Russian precision strike and drone control capabilities.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Evolution: Russian "Dnepr" and "Vostok" groups are increasingly integrating FPV drones as primary suppression tools for infantry assaults (Zapasnoye/Dnipropetrovsk border).
Cyber/Information Warfare: The use of AI for VLESS protocol blocking (0935Z) suggests a sophisticated upgrade in Russia's ability to isolate its internal information space, likely timed to coincide with the Geneva summit and domestic rumors of a Telegram ban.
Diplomatic Pacing: By extending the Geneva timeline into Feb 18 (0922Z), Russia is likely attempting to buy time for tactical gains (e.g., Zapasnoye, Sumy strikes) to use as leverage.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Logistical Vulnerability: The reduction in private/volunteer-led drone procurement (Sternenko fund) is a critical risk factor. If state procurement does not offset this deficit, UAF units on the Zaporizhzhia and Donbas axes will face a "drone gap" against Russian FPV-led assaults.
Deep Strike Success: SSO's "FP-2" drone operations continue to demonstrate high technical proficiency in bypassing Russian EW in Crimea (0946Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Polish Reparations Narrative: Pro-Russian channels (Col. Cassad, Alex Parker) are amplifying reports of Poland seeking reparations from Russia for the Soviet era. This is likely intended to frame NATO members as "historically revisionist" and distract from current Russian aggression (0921Z).
Telegram FUD: Continued ambiguity from Roskomnadzor regarding an April 1st Telegram ban is being used to induce friction and panic within both Russian and Ukrainian information ecosystems (0941Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): A surge in KAB and UAV strikes against energy and civilian infrastructure in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia to maintain pressure during the first night of the Geneva talks.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Russian forces leverage the incoming snowstorm (90-93% probability) in the Pokrovsk and Orikhiv sectors to launch mechanized breakthroughs while UAF drone ISR is grounded by low visibility.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLEFIELD GEOMETRY] Confirm the status of Zapasnoye (Zaporizhzhia). Verify if UAF has withdrawn to secondary lines or if the Russian claim is premature propaganda.
[LOGISTICS] Assess the impact of the FPV drone shortage on the 110th and 47th Brigades in the Pokrovsk/Zaporizhzhia sectors.
[TECHINT] Obtain data on the AI-based VLESS blocking signatures to develop counter-obfuscation methods for UAF intelligence personnel operating within RU-controlled networks.
