Geneva Summit Escalation: Trilateral talks are scheduled to begin at approximately 1100Z (14:00 MSK). The presence of the US Secretary of the Army and SACEUR in Geneva underscores the high stakes (ТАСС, 08:14; Операция Z, 08:15, HIGH).
Intensified Huliaipole Assaults: UAF General Staff reports a surge in Russian activity in the Huliaipole direction, with 37 attacks recorded in the last 24 hours (Liveuamap, 08:04, HIGH).
Russian Territorial Claim (Zapasne): Elements of the Russian 11th Separate Guards Air Assault Brigade (VDV) claim to have seized Zapasne (Zaporizhzhia) after several days of fighting (Воин DV/Поддубный, 08:18, MEDIUM/UNCONFIRMED).
UAF Counter-Logistics Strike: A Ukrainian UAV strike successfully ignited an oil product reservoir in Volna, Krasnodar Krai, targeting Russian fuel supply lines (ASTRA, 08:13, HIGH).
Odesa Utility Crisis: Follow-up on the overnight strikes confirms tens of thousands are without heat and water as temperatures hover near freezing (ASTRA, 08:17, HIGH).
Sustainment Update: Confirmation that Ukraine has received over 4.4 million large-caliber munitions via the Czech-led initiative, providing a critical buffer for defensive operations (Два майора, 07:59, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy/Luhansk):
Vovchansk: Current temp -7.2°C with 54% cloud cover. Russian forces attempted 11 breakthroughs yesterday toward Hrafske and Vilcha (Liveuamap, 08:03; Weather Context).
Kupyansk: Russian MoD is promoting narratives of "catastrophic" UAF conditions near Kupyansk-Uzlovoi, citing high frostbite casualties. While likely exaggerated for PSYOP, it indicates a focused Russian effort to break the line here (ТАСС, 08:10, MEDIUM).
Lyman: High pressure continues with 14 Russian assaults repelled near Nadiya and Tverdokhlibove (Liveuamap, 08:04).
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas/Pokrovsk):
Pokrovsk/Donetsk: Current temp -2.8°C; overcast. Forecast 2.8mm snow (80% probability) will likely hinder UAF FPV drone operations within the next 6 hours. Heavy clashes reported near Rodynske and Chervonyy Lyman (Liveuamap, 08:04; Weather Context).
Sloviansk/Kramatorsk: Combined 8+ attacks near Minkivka and Ray-Oleksandrivka indicate Russian attempts to widen the salient north of Bakhmut (Liveuamap, 08:04).
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson/Crimea):
Orikhiv/Huliaipole: Significant Russian aviation activity (17+ airstrikes) and 37 ground assaults in the Huliaipole sector (Liveuamap, 08:03). If the claim regarding Zapasne is confirmed, it suggests a tactical softening of the Orikhiv-Huliaipole line (Воин DV, 08:18).
Weather Factor: 6.2mm of snow forecast for Orikhiv today. The combination of frozen ground and falling snow creates an optimal window for Russian mechanized units (e.g., 218th Tank Regiment) to maneuver while masked from UAF ISR (Weather Context).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: Russian military observers note that the "25km dead zone" created by drones has rendered 152mm towed artillery insufficient. Russian forces are increasingly calling for precision munitions with 40km+ range to survive counter-battery fire (Поддубный, 08:07, HIGH).
Industrial Mobilization: GK "Element" (Russia) has announced mass production of 200,000 sovereign drone processors to replace Western STM32 chips, indicating a long-term commitment to scaling UGV/UAV operations (Басурин о главном, 08:06, MEDIUM).
Course of Action: Russia is maintaining a "high-tempo attrition" model, using massed ground assaults (Huliaipole) and aviation to exhaust UAF reserves before the Geneva negotiations reach a critical phase.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strikes: The UAV strike on the Volna oil depot (Krasnodar) demonstrates continued capability to hit Russian rear-area logistics despite the focus on front-line defense (ASTRA, 08:13).
Sustainment: The 4.4M rounds of large-caliber ammunition received via the Czech initiative are critical, particularly as Russia attempts to leverage its current artillery advantage (Два майора, 07:59).
Information environment / disinformation
Kupyansk "Catastrophe": Russian MoD claims of mass frostbite and "denied retreats" are being used to undermine UAF morale and support the narrative that Ukrainian defenses are collapsing (ТАСС, 08:10).
Geopolitical Distraction: Russian media is amplifying reports of the UK creating an "independent payment system" due to Visa/Mastercard fears, likely to draw parallels with Russia's own economic isolation and project a sense of global instability (Операция Z, 08:06).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued high-intensity assaults in the Huliaipole and Pokrovsk sectors. As snow begins to fall in Zaporizhzhia (1000Z-1400Z), Russian forces will likely launch mechanized pushes under the cover of reduced visibility.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated breakthrough attempt in the Orikhiv sector toward the H-08 highway, utilizing the 218th Tank Regiment to exploit the "weather gap" that blinds Ukrainian FPV drones.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT] Verify the status of Zapasne (Zaporizhzhia) via independent satellite or drone imagery to confirm/deny the 11th VDV Brigade's claim.
[TACTICAL ISR] Monitor the movement of Russian 152mm assets; assess if the "40km+ requirement" is resulting in a withdrawal of older towed pieces in favor of modernized SPGs (e.g., Malva, Koalitsiya-SV).
[LOGISTICS] Evaluate the impact of the Volna oil depot strike on the fuel supply for the Russian "Vostok" and "Dnepr" groupings.
