Critical Infrastructure Loss: DTEK confirms "extremely serious damage" to a Thermal Power Plant (TPP) in Odesa following a nighttime combined strike; repairs will be prolonged (0653Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH).
Diplomatic Escalation: US envoy Witkoff has arrived in Geneva, joining the Russian delegation; security at the President Wilson hotel is significantly tightened (0651Z, 0656Z, TASS, HIGH).
New Air Incursions: Shahed UAVs launched from Kursk (RU) are currently transiting toward Sumy (0650Z) and northern Chernihiv Oblast toward Kholmy (0704Z) (UAF AF, HIGH).
Hybrid Narrative: Russian sources are amplifying claims from Intelligence Online that US and Dutch veteran pilots are flying Ukrainian F-16s under "non-official contracts" to defend Kyiv (0658Z, 0714Z, UNCONFIRMED, LOW).
Tactical EW/ISR Suppression: Russian 35th Army (Vostok) released footage of coordinated drone strikes against Ukrainian electronic relays in the Polohy (Zaporizhzhia) direction (0702Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Western & Southern Ukraine (Odesa/Lviv):
Odesa Sector: The strike on the DTEK TPP marks a significant degradation of regional power stability. Emergency services are prioritizing critical infrastructure restoration.
Lviv Sector: While the previous report noted Shahed threats, current focus shifted toward BDA and regional recovery.
2. Northern Sector (Sumy/Chernihiv):
Air Domain: Renewed UAV activity from Kursk. Shahed flight paths suggest a target set in Sumy and northern Chernihiv.
Environmental Factors: Kharkiv/Vovchansk is currently -7.9°C with 53% cloud cover. The ground is frozen solid, supporting heavy mechanized transit.
3. Eastern Sector (Donbas/Pokrovsk):
Battlefield Geometry: Pokrovsk is -3.5°C and 97% overcast. Snow is imminent (80% probability).
Logistics: Russian fundraising activity has been identified for the 33rd Guards Motor Rifle Regiment in the Dobropolye salient, suggesting preparations for sustained operations in this sector (0704Z).
4. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Tactical Activity: Russian forces are actively targeting Ukrainian communication and relay infrastructure in the Polohy sector to blind local C2 (0702Z).
Weather Impact: Orikhiv (-1.7°C) and Kherson (-2.0°C) are under heavy cloud cover (86-92%). A major snow event (6.2mm) is forecast for Orikhiv over the next 12 hours, which will severely limit FPV drone effectiveness and optical reconnaissance (0715Z, Weather Context).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: Russia is maintaining a "strike-and-talk" posture. By hitting the Odesa TPP simultaneously with the arrival of US/RU delegations in Geneva, Moscow is attempting to force concessions through energy terror.
Tactical Shift: Increased focus on destroying technical relays (Zaporizhzhia) suggests a preparatory phase to degrade Ukrainian drone coordination ahead of a localized push.
Force Disposition: Russian 110th Motorized Rifle Brigade and 33rd Guards Motor Rifle Regiment are actively soliciting technical gear (Mavic drones, etc.), indicating they are currently in an intensive combat or preparatory posture in the Donbas.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Continued transition of mobile groups to intercept new UAV waves in Sumy/Chernihiv.
Strategic Resilience: Nationwide 09:00 moment of silence remains a key psychological and morale-maintaining measure across all military and civilian sectors (0659Z).
Anti-Corruption: Legal proceedings continue against former Minister Halushchenko (425M UAH bail), indicating the state is maintaining internal oversight despite the external military crisis (0702Z).
Information environment / disinformation
"Foreign Pilot" Narrative: Pro-Russian channels (Dva Mayora, Dnevnik Desantnika) are pushing the narrative of direct Western intervention via F-16 pilots. This is likely intended to:
Frame the UAF's air defense successes as "illegal" NATO intervention.
Provide Russia with leverage in Geneva by claiming NATO is a co-belligerent.
Economic Framing: Russian domestic channels are highlighting extreme mortgage costs in Moscow (700k+ RUB/month), potentially to distract from war costs or frame the "struggle" as a shared national burden (0710Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued Shahed and possibly missile pressure on Northern/Central Ukraine to keep air defenses dispersed while the Geneva talks open.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A Russian mechanized assault in the Orikhiv sector (Zaporizhzhia) as the forecast 6.2mm of snow begins to fall, utilizing the degraded Ukrainian ISR and the frozen ground to seize the H-08 highway.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL ISR] Confirmation of the current status of the 35th Army's frontline positions in Polohy following their strikes on UA relays.
[TECHNICAL BDA] Detailed assessment of the Odesa TPP's remaining generating capacity and estimated time to partial restoration.
[DIPLOMATIC INTEL] Monitoring of the "Witkoff-Russian" interactions in Geneva to determine if the "Anchorage" reference implies a specific format of breakthrough or a planned stalemate.
