Major Cruise Missile (CM) Escalation: A significant wave of cruise missiles is currently transiting Ukrainian airspace. Multiple groups (est. 15+ missiles) are moving from the south (Kherson/Mykolaiv) toward Odesa and Vinnytsia, and from the north (Sumy/Chernihiv) toward Poltava, Cherkasy, and Kyiv (0406Z-0416Z, Николаевский Ванёк/UAF Air Force, HIGH).
Kinetic Impact in Dnipro: A large-scale fire and damage to administrative buildings in Dnipro are confirmed following overnight strikes (0418Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
Tactical Logistics Shift: Russian "Vostok" group is confirmed to be using "Mangas" heavy hexacopters for frontline resupply of ammunition and rations, mitigating ground transport risks in the frozen terrain (0400Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
Diplomatic Movement: Italy has officially approved the flight path for the Russian delegation traveling to Geneva, confirming the "Geneva Push" is proceeding despite the military escalation (0353Z, TASS, HIGH).
Symmetric UAV Pressure: Russian authorities in Sevastopol claim to have repelled a sustained 24-drone UAF attack, reporting one civilian injury (0415Z, TASS/Razvozhayev, MEDIUM).
Artillery Attrition near Orikhiv: Russian forces claim the destruction of a UAF artillery battery via Lancet loitering munitions near Orikhiv (0409Z, Операция Z, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Sector (Sumy/Chernihiv/Poltava):
Threat: High-speed aerial targets (missiles) are transiting Sumy toward Poltava and Chernihiv toward Kyiv.
Environment: Extreme cold (-8.4°C in Kharkiv) continues. Heavy cloud cover (96%) persists, complicating visual AD tracking.
2. Central/Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Dnipro):
Kinetic Activity: Dnipro remains a primary target for combined strikes; BDA indicates structural damage to administrative infrastructure.
Logistics: The use of heavy drones (hexacopters) for "Vostok" group indicates RU is adapting to the "flatlined" GRAU arsenal activity reported earlier by pushing supplies directly to the zero-line.
Weather: Ground is fully frozen (-4.3°C). Snow (2.5mm) is imminent (80% prob), which will degrade visibility for the next 6-12 hours.
Missile Transit: Mykolaiv is currently a transit corridor for at least 15 cruise missiles moving toward Odesa and potentially Vinnytsia.
Tactical Loss: Reported Lancet strike near Orikhiv suggests RU is prioritizing counter-battery fire to suppress UAF support for the H-08 highway defense.
Environment: Snow showers starting in Kherson; temperatures holding at -2.6°C to -3.3°C.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (COA): Russia has transitioned from "Shahed" saturation to a synchronized cruise missile strike. The timing (approx. 0400Z) is designed to impact energy and administrative infrastructure just before dawn.
Logistics: The deployment of "Mangas" hexacopters suggests a workaround for traditional logistical bottlenecks, allowing RU штурмовики (assault groups) to remain supplied even if UAF strikes traditional supply lines.
Capability: Large-scale UAV defense in Sevastopol indicates RU remains sensitive to symmetric UAF drone strikes on its naval/logistical hubs.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense (AD): Active engagement of multiple missile groups across Mykolaiv, Sumy, and Poltava. UAF Air Force is issuing continuous warnings for "combined attacks."
Symmetric Operations: UAF continues to pressure Crimean infrastructure (Sevastopol), forcing RU to maintain high AD readiness in the rear.
Information environment / disinformation
Justification Narrative: RU state media (TASS/Miroshnik) is heavily publicizing claims of 20+ civilian deaths and 120+ injuries from UAF strikes over the last week. This is likely intended to frame the current missile wave as "retaliatory" for domestic consumption and "Geneva" leverage (0407Z).
External Distraction: RU media is highlighting severe flooding in France (Maine-et-Loire), potentially to distract from French military support (SAR radars) to Ukraine (0351Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): The cruise missile wave will reach its final targets in Western and Central Ukraine within the next 60-90 minutes. This will be followed by a BDA phase using high-altitude UAVs.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A mechanized assault in the Orikhiv or Pokrovsk sectors. With the ground frozen and UAF artillery suppressed by Lancets (as claimed), RU may attempt to seize key terrain before the forecast heavy snow (0600Z) further restricts movement.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TECHNICAL] Identification of missile launch platforms (Black Sea Fleet vs. Tu-95MS) to estimate the total volume of the remaining wave.
[BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT] Verification of the "Lancet" strike on the artillery battery near Orikhiv to determine local fire-support degradation.
[LOGISTICS] Monitoring frequency and capacity of RU resupply drones in the "Vostok" sector to assess their impact on RU endurance during the cold snap.
