Kyiv Air Alert: (0251Z, КМВА, HIGH) National capital under air alert due to incoming UAV threat, reversing the temporary reduction in activity noted in the previous reporting cycle.
KAB Strikes on Zaporizhzhia: (0254Z, Air Force UA, HIGH) Russian aviation has commenced Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strikes against targets in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, likely targeting frontline fortifications or staging areas.
Northern Sector UAV Infiltration: (0255Z, Air Force UA, HIGH) A fresh wave of Shahed-type UAVs has been launched from the Kursk region (RF) toward Sumy Oblast.
Dnipro Strike Confirmation: (0302Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH) Kinetic impact in Dnipro confirmed; fire at an administrative building and damage to vehicles reported following earlier 0149Z alerts.
Strategic Missile Launch (UNCONFIRMED): (0256Z, Операция Z, LOW) Pro-Russian sources claim "strategics" (Tu-95MS/Tu-160) have conducted missile launches. This remains unconfirmed by UAF Air Force but aligns with previous indicators of high-readiness at GRAU arsenals.
Tactical Loss (Kharkiv): (0306Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM) Russian sources released footage claiming the destruction of a UAF UAV launch unit near Yurchenkove, Kharkiv Oblast.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Central Axis (Dnipro/Pavlohrad):
Kinetic Activity: Damage to an administrative building in Dnipro (0302Z) confirms Russian targeting of C2 or local governance infrastructure.
Environmental: Temperature at -4.3°C (Pokrovsk) with 98% cloud cover. Visibility is deteriorating as the predicted snow (78% probability) approaches.
2. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv):
Force Employment: Transition to KAB strikes (0254Z) indicates a shift from long-range saturation to tactical suppression of UAF defensive lines.
Terrain: Ground remains fully hardened (-2.5°C). The use of heavy aerial bombs suggests RU is attempting to breach hardened defensive positions to exploit the frozen ground for mechanized movement.
New Vector: Launch of UAVs from Kursk (0255Z) indicates a multi-axis air assault designed to stretch UAF air defense between the Kyiv/Sumy axes and the Eastern front.
Attrition: If the Yurchenkove strike (0306Z) is confirmed, UAF tactical ISR and FPV capabilities in the Kharkiv sector may face localized degradation.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation & Missile Threat: The shift to KABs and the unconfirmed report of strategic missile launches suggest the "Geneva Push" has entered the high-intensity phase. RU is likely attempting to maximize infrastructure damage and defensive suppression before 0600Z.
Hybrid Tactics: The TASS statement (0308Z) dismissing European reports on the Navalny death as an "information attack" serves to consolidate domestic Russian support and deflect Western diplomatic pressure during the ongoing pre-negotiation escalation.
Tactical Adaptation: RU is utilizing the Kursk launch site to bypass air defenses focused on the southeastern corridors, creating a "pincer" effect in the information and physical domains for Kyiv's defense.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: Mobile Fire Groups and SAM units are currently engaged in Kyiv and Sumy. Focus remains on conserving high-end interceptors for the potential cruise missile wave.
Electronic Warfare (EW): Efforts to mask UAV launch units (like those in Yurchenkove) are critical as RU ISR appears to be successfully vectoring loitering munitions against tactical assets in the Kharkiv sector.
Information environment / disinformation
Source Conflict: Russian "milbloggers" are reporting strategic missile launches to create panic and project dominance. UAF official channels have not yet confirmed cruise missile tracks, suggesting these reports may be premature or part of a psychological shaping operation.
Diplomatic Shielding: RU state media is aggressively pivoting to defensive narratives (Navalny/Opcw) to mitigate negative diplomatic fallout while escalating military operations.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued KAB and UAV saturation through 0500Z, followed by a coordinated missile strike (if the 0256Z launch reports are corroborated) targeting the national power grid and heating infrastructure in Kyiv and Dnipro.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massed mechanized assault on the Orikhiv axis, preceded by the current KAB strikes, to exploit the frozen ground and 5.9mm snow cover to bypass UAF anti-tank positions before sunrise.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[OPERATIONAL] Immediate confirmation of cruise missile launches via satellite ISR or ELINT to verify the 0256Z "Strategic" claim.
[TACTICAL] Damage assessment of the administrative building in Dnipro to determine the caliber/type of munition used (Ballistic vs. UAV).
[TACTICAL] Verification of the status of UAV units in the Yurchenkove/Kharkiv area.
