Geneva Delegations Arrive: (1916Z-1918Z, Umerov/RBC-Ukraine, HIGH) Both Ukrainian and Russian delegations have arrived in Geneva for scheduled talks. RU MFA indicates they will operate under the "spirit of Anchorage," signaling a confrontational and uncompromising negotiating stance.
Massive UAF UAV Attack on Krasnodar Krai: (1850Z-1915Z, Two Majors/Operation Z, HIGH) Multiple Ukrainian UAVs are currently striking targets across Russia’s Krasnodar region, including Anapa, Gelendzhik, and Goryachiy Klyuch. RU PVO is actively engaging; debris falls are reported in residential areas.
Urgent Air Defense (PPO) Warning: (1849Z-1857Z, Zelenskyy/KMVA, HIGH) President Zelenskyy warned of "evolving" and "complex" Russian strike packages targeting the energy sector during the current cold snap. This suggests the integration of new electronic warfare (EW) countermeasures or synchronized decoy tactics.
UAV Infiltration - Northern/Black Sea Sectors: (1848Z-1907Z, Air Force, HIGH) New groups of Shahed-type UAVs are entering Chernihiv Oblast (heading toward Novhorod-Siverskyi) and approaching Chornomorsk from the Black Sea.
RU Mechanized Support in Kharkiv: (1905Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM) Footage confirms tank crews of the 6th Guards Combined Arms Army are providing direct fire support for motorized riflemen in the Kharkiv sector, utilizing thermal targeting in winter conditions.
Presence of North Korean Personnel (UNCONFIRMED): (1852Z, Fighterbomber, LOW) Reports suggest additional North Korean units may be arriving or active; however, visual evidence or corroboration is currently lacking.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy/Chernihiv):
Chernihiv Sector: (1848Z) Tactical threat from UAVs transiting the northern border.
Kharkiv/Vovchansk: (1905Z) RU 6th Guards Army is leveraging the hardened ground (-5.8°C) to deploy heavy armor in support of infantry assaults. Ground conditions are optimal for mechanized maneuver despite 72% cloud cover.
Sumy: Forces remain on alert following the seizure of Pokrovka (ref: previous daily report).
2. Eastern Axis (Donbas/Luhansk):
Donetsk/Pokrovsk: (1911Z) High activity of Russian tactical aviation. The sector remains under heavy pressure with 100% cloud cover and temperatures at -1.8°C, providing concealment for RU low-altitude sorties.
SBU Operations: (1915Z) Major General Yevhen Khmara briefed the presidency on active measures to protect Ukrainian drone manufacturing sites from Russian sabotage and kinetic strikes.
3. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson/Crimea):
Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv: (1854Z) An air alert was cleared, but the threat from the 218th Guards Tank Regiment (ref: previous daily report) remains high as the ground hardens.
Maritime/Odesa: (1907Z) New UAV threat detected from the Black Sea heading toward Chornomorsk, likely targeting port infrastructure or grain silos.
RU Rear (Krasnodar): Significant UAF strike activity targeting RU logistics and air defense hubs in the Kuban region.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Evolution: RU is transitioning from simple saturation strikes to "evolved" packages (1857Z). This likely includes the use of thermal-coated drones to evade PPO and the coordination of ballistic strikes with UAV swarms to deplete interceptor stocks.
Mechanized Integration: The use of tanks as mobile artillery/support for motorized units in Kharkiv (1905Z) indicates RU is moving away from purely "meat assault" tactics in favor of combined arms as the ground freezes.
Diplomatic Leveraging: Moscow is intensifying strikes and frontline pressure to coincide with the arrival of delegations in Geneva, seeking to force concessions from a position of tactical strength.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Capability: UAF is maintaining high-tempo pressure on RU's southern rear (Krasnodar/Crimea) to disrupt the launch platforms for energy-sector strikes.
Defensive Preparation: SBU and Cyber units are prioritizing the hardening of domestic drone production chains and counter-intelligence against RU spotters (1915Z).
Diplomatic Engagement: The presence of Defense Minister Umerov in Geneva suggests a focus on security guarantees and military aid requirements rather than purely territorial concessions.
Information environment / disinformation
PPO Depletion Narrative: (1912Z, Two Majors, LOW) RU sources are circulating claims that Germany has "run out" of air defense missiles and that US-purchased missiles are bypassing Germany to go straight to Ukraine. This is a deliberate attempt to undermine Western resolve and suggest a collapse in UAF sustainability.
Hybrid Distractions: RU channels are using Maslenitsa-themed "online games" to fundraise for the SVO (1901Z), attempting to normalize the war effort within the Russian domestic social fabric.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): A heavy, multi-vector strike involving Shaheds from the north and south, combined with tactical aviation launches in the East, to test PPO "recalibration" mentioned by Zelenskyy.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A mechanized surge in the Pokrovsk or Kharkiv sectors utilizing the night freeze (-2°C to -6°C) to bypass UAF forward positions before sunrise.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[STRATEGIC] Identify the specific nature of RU "evolved" strike tactics—are new air-launched decoys or modified seeker heads being utilized?
[TACTICAL] Confirm the presence and unit designation of North Korean personnel in the Northern or Eastern sectors.
[LOGISTICS] Assess the damage to RU PPO assets in Anapa and Gelendzhik following the 1900Z-era drone strikes.
