Deep Strike Operations (Crimea): (1618Z-1646Z, Colonelcassad/Operativno ZSU, HIGH) UAF is conducting a multi-vector UAV raid against occupied Crimea. Explosions and AD activity confirmed in Sevastopol (Cape Khersones, Orlovka), the Southern Coast (YBK), and near Kerch. Russian officials claim 5 drones downed.
Frontline Breach (Sumy Sector): (1628Z, Slivochny Kapriz, MEDIUM) Geolocated imagery confirms a Russian tactical advance into the western outskirts of Pokrovka. This marks a transition from cross-border raiding to positional seizure in the Sumy axis.
Aerial Saturation (Odesa/South): (1623Z-1647Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH) Multiple groups of Shahed-type UAVs have entered from the Black Sea, targeting Zatoka, Novomykolaivka, and Katlabuh.
Expanded KAB Usage: (1629Z-1643Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH) Russian tactical aviation has intensified Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strikes across Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
Unconfirmed North Korean Asset Destruction: (1635Z, RBK-Ukraine, LOW) Reports claim UAF drones destroyed a rare North Korean M-1978 "Koksan" SPG in Luhansk. Analytical note: The circulating image appears to be recycled from historical Iraqi conflict archives; verification is pending.
Zaporizhzhia Consolidation: (1630Z, RU MoD, HIGH) Russian 218th Tank Regiment has confirmed the capture of Tsvetkovoye, utilizing small-unit tactics and FPV drones to bypass local defenses.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia / Dnipropetrovsk):
Zaporizhzhia: The situation remains critical. While the air alert for the city was cleared (1646Z), the missile threat persists. The loss of Tsvetkovoye (1630Z) provides the RU 127th Motorized Rifle Division a staging point for further pushes toward the H-08 highway as the ground freezes (-0.3°C in Orikhiv).
Dnipropetrovsk: Nikopol and surrounding areas sustained over 40 drone/artillery strikes today. KAB strikes are now being reported in the oblast (1643Z), indicating an expansion of RU tactical aviation range or a shift in targeting toward rear logistics.
2. Northern/Sumy Axis:
Pokrovka: RU forces have established a foothold in the western outskirts (1628Z). This aligns with the "buffer zone" intent noted in previous reports.
UAV Vectors: Shaheds are moving toward Voronizh (Sumy) and Novhorod-Siverskyi (Chernihiv), suggesting a coordinated effort to harass northern energy infrastructure.
3. Maritime / Crimea Axis:
Crimean Peninsula: Significant UAF drone activity targeting Sevastopol and Kerch indicates an attempt to disrupt RU naval logistics or air defense nodes ahead of the expected RU missile wave.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Aviation: The synchronized launch of KABs across three separate oblasts (1643Z) indicates high sortie rates and effective C2 from RU VKS.
Hybrid/C2: Telegram channel "Archangel Spetsnaz" (1625Z) is migrating to backup platforms (MAX.ru) due to technical throttling, suggesting possible RU state efforts to centralize or control mil-blogger narratives ahead of the Geneva talks.
North Korean Integration: While the "Koksan" strike remains unconfirmed, the presence of such assets in Luhansk remains a high-priority intelligence requirement (PIR).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Offensive Capability: The UAV raid on Crimea (1618Z) demonstrates sustained reach despite the ongoing defensive posture on the mainland.
Logistics/Sustainment: A €85 million grant from Norway (1631Z) for natural gas imports provides a critical buffer against RU "energy terror" as temperatures drop (Kharkiv/Vovchansk at -4.4°C).
Information environment / disinformation
Psychological Operations: RU sources are recirculating claims of "Ukrposhta arson" (1640Z) to frame mobilization resistance as a mass internal insurgency.
Video Manipulation: RU "Operation Z" (1643Z) used Ukrainian TikTok footage of an explosion in Kramatorsk to claim a successful RU FPV strike, misrepresenting the city's status to boost domestic morale.
Internal RU Politics: Kadyrov’s announcement regarding the May 2026 elections (1624Z) suggests the Kremlin is prioritizing regional stability in Chechnya to ensure continued manpower flow to the front.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): The previously identified "Silent Depots" and current Shahed vectors strongly suggest a massive missile/drone strike will commence between 2100Z and 0300Z, synchronized with the arrival of the RU delegation in Geneva.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A multi-regiment mechanized push from the Tsvetkovoye-Orikhiv axis toward Zaporizhzhia, leveraging the freezing ground and the saturation of UAF AD by the expected missile wave.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[IMINT/HUMINT] Verify the status of the M-1978 "Koksan" SPG in Luhansk; confirm if North Korean artillery units are operating autonomously or integrated into RU structures.
[SIGINT] Monitor for RU strategic aviation engine start-ups (Bear/Blackjack) at Engels-2 and Olenya airbases.
[BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT] Determine the impact of UAF UAV strikes on the Cape Khersones and Kerch infrastructure.
