Geneva Negotiation Escalation: (1253Z, Poddubny, HIGH) GRU Chief Igor Kostyukov is confirmed to join the Russian delegation in Geneva. The agenda has reportedly expanded to include "territorial status," indicating Russia is shifting from psychological positioning to hard-line territorial bargaining ahead of Feb 17.
Myrnohrad Breach: (1300Z, RBC-UA, HIGH) Russian armored units have reportedly achieved a breakthrough into the depths of Myrnohrad. This follows previous reports of infantry filtering into the outskirts.
Strategic Personnel Shift: (1251Z, TASS, MEDIUM) Sergei Ivanov has been removed from the Russian Security Council by presidential decree. This suggests a potential consolidation of the "war cabinet" or a shift in internal power dynamics.
Deep Strike Activity: (1250Z, MoD Russia, HIGH) Russian "Geran" (Shahed) UAVs have struck POL (Petroleum, Oil, Lubricants) storage facilities near Kachanovo, Poltava. Large thermal signatures confirm successful impact.
Aerial Threat (South): (1315Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH) A high-speed aerial target (likely a cruise or ballistic missile) is currently tracking toward the southern Odesa region.
Drone Interdiction Success: (1308Z, Sternenko, MEDIUM) UAF "SUNSTRIKE" operators downed four high-value Russian UAVs (1x Lancet, 1x Supercam, 2x Herber), mitigating Russian ISR and loitering munition capability in an unspecified sector.
Claim of Paratrooper Engagement: (1250Z, Архангел Спецназа, LOW) Russian sources claim to have engaged two paratroopers descending via an aerial platform. This is UNCONFIRMED and highly unusual for the current tactical environment; likely a misidentification of drone-deployed assets or misinformation.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Axis (Sumy/Kharkiv/Chernihiv):
Chernihiv Sector: (1251Z, 1303Z) Russian reconnaissance UAVs detected over Ripky, moving toward Chernihiv. This suggests active Russian ISR looking for gaps in northern air defenses.
South-Slobozhansky: (1259Z) Ukrainian "Forpost" Border Guard brigade destroyed a Russian motor pool including a Self-Propelled Artillery (SAU) unit and transport vehicles.
Weather: Kharkiv/Vovchansk is at -1.7°C, overcast. Sub-zero temperatures are beginning to firm the ground, but 7.3 m/s winds continue to complicate small UAV flight profiles.
2. Eastern Axis (Donbas/Pokrovsk):
Myrnohrad/Pokrovsk: (1300Z, 1258Z) The situation is critical. While the UAF 7th Corps DShV reports suppressing some Russian "pincer" movements via reconnaissance-strike loops, Russian armor has breached deeper into Myrnohrad.
Casualty Assessment: (1316Z) Visual evidence confirms high Russian attrition in the Pokrovsk direction, with recovery teams documenting frozen casualties from v/ч 42600.
Weather: Pokrovsk at 1.8°C; ground remains soft/muddy but is trending toward a hard freeze overnight.
3. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Odesa: (1315Z) Air defense alert active for high-speed inbound targets.
Weather: Orikhiv at 2.0°C, partly cloudy. Ground conditions are marginally better for mobility than in the north, though wind (6.2 m/s) remains a factor.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Course of Action: Russia is clearly prioritizing a breakthrough in the Myrnohrad-Pokrovsk agglomeration to secure "territorial facts" before the Geneva talks. The use of armored columns (1300Z) marks an escalation from small-unit infantry filtering.
Logistics Strike: The strike on Kachanovo POL (1250Z) indicates a coordinated effort to degrade UAF fuel reserves ahead of a potential larger-scale offensive.
Hybrid/Diplomatic: The mention of "referendums" in Kharkiv by occupation official Ganchev (1315Z) combined with GRU participation in Geneva suggests a hybrid "pressure-negotiation" model where military gains are immediately leveraged for diplomatic concessions.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Active Defense: 7th Corps DShV is utilizing enhanced ISR to interdict Russian encirclement attempts near Pokrovsk.
Counter-UAV: Successful deployment of specialized drone-hunting teams (SUNSTRIKE) to degrade Russian tactical reconnaissance (Supercam/Lancet).
Legal/Diplomatic: Ukrainian Prosecutor General's office continues the "lawfare" effort, charging a Russian Major General in absentia for the 2022 Kyiv TV tower strike to maintain international pressure.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Messaging: Russian state media (TASS/Ganchev) is floating the idea of Kharkiv's status as a negotiation point, likely to distract from or justify their inability to fully "liberate" the Donbas.
Internal Russian Friction: The removal of Sergei Ivanov from the Security Council (1314Z) and visuals of "Cargo 200" crates (1309Z) contrast with official MoD victory narratives.
Regional Instability: Reports of security chief changes in Kyrgyzstan (1302Z) and a probe into comedian Nurlan Saburov in Kazakhstan (1253Z) indicate Moscow’s sensitivity to stability in its "near abroad" during this phase of the war.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Expansion of the air strike campaign. The "high-speed target" toward Odesa and Geran strikes in Poltava are likely the vanguard of the anticipated massive strike. Russian forces will attempt to consolidate their breach into Myrnohrad under the cover of these strikes.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A multi-directional armored push in the Pokrovsk sector coinciding with a localized total blackout caused by strikes on energy infrastructure, aimed at collapsing the 7th Corps DShV’s reconnaissance-strike loop.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[OPERATIONAL] Confirm the depth of the Russian armored breach in Myrnohrad (1300Z) and determine if UAF reserve lines are intact.
[TACTICAL] Verify the nature of the "high-speed target" heading toward Odesa (1315Z) to identify specific Russian launch platforms (Sea-based Kalibr vs. Air-based Kinzhal).
[STRATEGIC] Assess the impact of Sergei Ivanov's removal (1251Z) on the Russian MoD/Security Council command structure.
[TECHNICAL] Monitor for the deployment of Russian paratroopers or air-assault assets, given the (unconfirmed) claim of engagement at 1250Z.
