RF Tactical Advance (Dnipropetrovsk Direction): (1058Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, HIGH) Russian forces have reportedly advanced 1.5 km west of Ivanovka toward Gavrilovka. Positional battles continue near Novopavlivka.
Strategic Strike Success (Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk): (1106Z, UA General Staff, HIGH) UAF confirmed successful strikes on Russian manpower concentrations, a communications node, and a UAV control point in occupied territories.
Kyiv Infrastructure Crisis: (1115Z, Colonelcassad/KMVA, HIGH) Over 2,500 buildings in Kyiv remain without heating following recent strikes on energy infrastructure; severe power disruptions persist across the capital.
Novel Drone Engagement (Tactical Tech): (1050Z, Operativnyi ZSU, MEDIUM) A UAF pilot from the 127th Brigade successfully intercepted a Russian fiber-optic-guided drone by using propellers to sever the cable, demonstrating a successful kinetic counter-measure to EW-resistant UAVs.
Massive Resource Injection (Zaporizhzhia Front): (1103Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH) The HUR "Artan" unit received a drone and equipment package valued at 16 million UAH to bolster counter-offensive capabilities.
Severe Weather Impact (Regional): (1107Z, Mash na Donbasse, MEDIUM) Widespread "tree-falls" reported in occupied Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson due to high winds (recorded at 7.8–10.1 m/s), causing localized damage to vehicles and power lines.
New UAV Incursion (Northern Axis): (1117Z, UA Air Force, HIGH) A Russian UAV was detected over Makoshyne, Chernihiv Oblast, tracking a westward course.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Axis (Chernihiv/Sumy/Kharkiv):
Tactical Situation: Continued ISR pressure. The detection of a UAV over Makoshyne (1117Z) suggests Russian intent to monitor rail/road lines toward Kyiv or deeper into Chernihiv.
Weather Factor: Kharkiv currently at 0.5°C with 7.9 m/s winds (1115Z). Overcast conditions (100% cloud) are hampering high-altitude ISR but likely favoring low-altitude UAV infiltration.
2. Eastern Axis (Donbas/Pokrovsk/Kostiantynivka):
Kostiantynivka: Video evidence (1106Z, Butusov) confirms the destruction of a 17-man Russian assault group by UAF drones (5th Assault Brigade).
Pokrovsk: High-intensity drone operations continue. UAF 100th Brigade is actively targeting Russian armor and personnel (1108Z). Current temp: 3.1°C; ground remains soft but is trending toward freezing overnight (min -2.6°C forecast).
Ivanovka-Gavrilovka: The 1.5 km Russian advance (1058Z) indicates a localized push to broaden the salient toward the Dnipropetrovsk regional border.
3. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Resource Reinforcement: The delivery of 16M UAH in equipment to the "Artan" unit (1103Z) suggests UAF is prioritizing intelligence-led strikes on the Zaporizhzhia front to disrupt Russian logistics.
Environmental Hazard: High winds (up to 10.1 m/s in Orikhiv) are causing structural damage (tree falls) and may ground lighter FPV drone models, potentially creating windows for Russian mechanized movement.
4. Rear Areas / Deep Strike:
Kyiv: The city is facing a significant humanitarian-technical crisis with 2,500+ buildings without heat (1115Z). This directly supports the Russian "bomb-to-negotiate" strategy identified in the previous sitrep.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: The deployment of fiber-optic drones (1050Z) confirms Russian attempts to bypass UAF electronic warfare. While UAF has demonstrated a manual counter-tactic, the presence of these drones suggests a move toward more resilient strike platforms.
Force Employment: Russian forces are maintaining pressure on the Dnipropetrovsk/Donetsk border, likely seeking to exploit the gap between Ukrainian defensive nodes before a full freeze.
C2 Vulnerability: The loss of a communications node and UAV control point (1106Z) will likely cause localized command paralysis in the affected southern sectors for the next 6-12 hours.
Friendly activity (UAF)
High-Value Targeting: UAF continues to prioritize Russian Command & Control (C2) and UAV infrastructure over simple attrition, as seen in the General Staff report (1106Z).
Strategic Communication: President Zelensky’s "no territorial compromise" statement (1058Z) is a direct counter to Russian "energy truce" narratives, reinforcing a firm negotiating position ahead of the Geneva talks.
Information environment / disinformation
Psychological Operations: Russian sources (Operatsiya Z) are claiming Ukrainian blackouts will last three years (1057Z). [UNCONFIRMED/LOW CONFIDENCE]. This is likely a narrative designed to incite domestic unrest and demoralize the civilian population.
Platform Suppression: Telegram's blocking of 235k channels (1103Z) is being heavily messaged by RF officials (TASS, 1115Z) as a "systemic problem," possibly laying the groundwork for further state-directed shifts to domestic platforms (e.g., MAX).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Russian forces will attempt to exploit high winds—which limit UAF defensive drone stability—to consolidate the 1.5km gain near Gavrilovka.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A sudden drop in temperature tonight (forecasted -6.4°C in Kharkiv) could harden the ground sufficiently for an overnight Russian armored push toward the M-03 or the Dnipropetrovsk border while Kyiv's heating crisis distracts central command.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL] Confirm the exact unit identity of Russian forces advancing toward Gavrilovka to assess if this is a fresh reserve or a localized tactical success.
[TECHNICAL] Acquire more data on Russian fiber-optic drone frequency of use; determine if the 127th Brigade encounter was an isolated prototype or a serial deployment.
[LOGISTICS] Verify the status of the "communications node" destroyed by UAF to determine the extent of Russian C2 degradation in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
