Geneva Negotiation Scope Expansion: (0935Z-0943Z, TASS/Peskov, HIGH) Russian officials confirmed the Feb 17-18 Geneva talks will include "territorial issues," a broader scope than previous security-focused meetings in Abu Dhabi.
Alleged Palantir AI Hack / Disinformation: (0940Z, Alex Parker, LOW) Claims surfaced regarding a massive AI-driven hack of Palantir, alleging exposure of global surveillance and biological weapon development for Ukraine. Likely a Russian Information Operation (IO) targeting Western tech support. UNCONFIRMED.
Massive UAV Engagement over Bryansk: (0932Z, Kotenok, LOW) Russian sources claim 229 Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted over Bryansk Oblast in 24 hours. UNCONFIRMED.
Russian Rear-Area Command Purge: (0924Z-0933Z, ASTRA/Alex Parker, MEDIUM) Detention of Krasnodar MChS head Sergey Shtrikov and the controversial sentencing of retired Rear Admiral Nikolay Kovalenko for embezzlement (592M RUB) indicate ongoing internal friction and corruption crackdowns within the RF MoD/security apparatus.
Sumy Sector Kinetic Activity: (0925Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM) Russian Tula-based paratroopers conducted artillery strikes against a UAF stronghold in Sumy, supported by drone-corrected fire.
Bakhmut Reconnaissance: (0942Z, Butusov Plus, MEDIUM) UAF "Ivan Franko Group" recon drones identified Russian military vehicle movement near Bakhmut/Luhanske under snowy conditions.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Sumy):
Current Conditions: 3.3°C, light rain, 100% cloud cover (Kharkiv). Ground is currently saturated, but freezing temperatures (down to -6.4°C) are forecast overnight.
Tactical Situation: Russian paratroopers (VDV) from Tula are active in the Sumy region, utilizing tube artillery against UAF defensive positions (0925Z).
2. Eastern Axis (Donbas/Bakhmut):
Bakhmut/Svitlodarsk: UAF drone reconnaissance (0942Z) confirms the presence of Russian armored assets moving in snowy terrain. This suggests the RF is maintaining pressure on the Bakhmut hinge despite the focus on Pokrovsk.
Pokrovsk/Donetsk Sector: Heavy winds (9.0 m/s) remain a significant constraint for small FPV/UAV operations (0945Z weather). Cloud cover (100%) continues to limit high-altitude ISR.
3. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv: Wind speeds remain high (8.5 m/s), potentially degrading the accuracy of tactical UAVs.
Kherson: Russian shelling or drone strikes resulted in two civilian casualties (0935Z). Overcast conditions (89-100% cloud cover) favor Russian tactical aviation for KAB strikes by masking aircraft from visual MANPADS detection.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action - Information Domain: The "Palantir hack" narrative (0940Z) is likely a coordinated attempt to drive a wedge between the Ukrainian MoD and its high-tech Western partners (Palantir/CIA/Musk) ahead of the Geneva negotiations.
Internal Security: The arrest of the Krasnodar MChS chief (0924Z) suggests the Kremlin is tightening control over regional logistics and emergency response hubs, likely in anticipation of further Ukrainian deep-strike campaigns.
Operational Tempo: The claim of 229 UAVs intercepted in Bryansk (0932Z), while likely exaggerated, indicates a high-intensity Ukrainian effort to suppress Russian rear-area logistics before the mud freezes and Russian armor gains mobility.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Campaign: UAF appears to be maintaining a high volume of UAV launches targeting Russian border regions (Bryansk), aimed at degrading C2 and logistics.
Reconnaissance: Strategic and tactical recon (e.g., Ivan Franko Group) remains active in the Bakhmut sector, monitoring for Russian regrouping.
Diplomatic Posture: President Zelensky has signaled a firm stance against territorial concessions (0927Z) and is calling for total sanctions on Russian energy, including nuclear (0938Z).
Information environment / disinformation
"Territory" Narrative: Peskov’s announcement regarding "territories" at Geneva (0935Z) is designed to create domestic and international pressure for a ceasefire on Russian terms.
Dehumanization/Sanctions IO: Russian channels are actively misrepresenting Zelensky's calls for sanctions as demands to "expel Russian families" (0941Z) to stoke anti-Ukrainian sentiment in the West and among the Russian diaspora.
Ukrenergo Narrative: Pro-Russian channels (Operatsiya Z, 0937Z) are using outdated/out-of-context infographics to claim Ukrainian blackouts are worse than reported, attempting to project successful energy infrastructure degradation.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continuation of the shaping strikes (KABs and artillery) in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, combined with a "noisy" information environment to maximize leverage before the Feb 17 Geneva talks.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A large-scale, coordinated missile strike tonight, synchronized with the onset of freezing temperatures, designed to cripple the energy grid exactly as heating demand spikes and the ground hardens for localized armored breakthroughs.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT] Verify the scale of the "229 UAVs" claim in Bryansk; identify actual targets hit to assess current UAF deep-strike effectiveness.
[CYBER/HYBRID] Monitor for any actual data leaks following the Palantir hack claim to determine if this is a pure fabrication or a compromised data set.
[TACTICAL MOVEMENTS] Increase SIGINT/ELINT focus on the 218th Tank Regiment (Zaporizhzhia) to see if they are preparing to exploit the hardening ground conditions.
