Intense Fire Preparation (Zaporizhzhia): (0510Z, RBK-UA/OVA, HIGH) Zaporizhzhia OVA reports 668 strikes against 32 settlements in the region over the last 24h, including 6 civilians wounded. This represents a significant escalation in shaping fires.
Degradation of Communications (Polohy): (0500Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM) Russian 35th Army ("Vostok" Grouping) FPV units are systematically targeting UAF signal repeaters in the Polohy direction to degrade local C2 and drone relay capacity.
Tactical Aviation Surge (Donetsk): (0517Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH) Confirmed launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) by Russian tactical aviation targeting positions in the Donetsk region.
Diplomatic Track (Geneva): (0510Z, STERNENKO/TASS, MEDIUM) Concurrent reports from Ukrainian and Russian sources confirm a UAF delegation is en route to Geneva for trilateral (UA-US-RU) talks focused on an "energy truce."
Deep Rear Recovery Update: (0518Z, ASTRA, HIGH) The fire at the Volna oil facility (Krasnodar Krai) following the UAF drone swarm was fully extinguished 24 hours after the strike, confirming significant disruption to the terminal's operations during that window.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Eastern Axis (Donbas/Pokrovsk/Donetsk):
Aviation Activity: The 0517Z alert of KAB launches indicates the VKS (Russian Aerospace Forces) is exploiting the current 88% cloud cover and 6.4°C temperature to provide air support before the forecasted cold front (min -2.5°C) limits ground-level visibility with potential icing.
Ground Bearability: Current Donetsk/Pokrovsk soil remains in a transitional state (mud). The forecasted plummet to freezing temperatures within the next 6-12h remains the primary trigger for anticipated mechanized maneuver.
2. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Polohy/Orikhiv Sector: The Russian 35th Army is prioritizing the destruction of UAF communication infrastructure. The use of FPVs against repeaters suggests a localized effort to create "blind spots" in UAF FPV coverage.
Shaping Operations: 668 strikes in 24 hours across the Zaporizhzhia region indicate a high-intensity artillery/MLRS preparation phase, likely synchronized with the 218th Tank Regiment's recent capture of Tsvetkovoye.
Weather: High winds (8.8 m/s current, 9.8 m/s max) in Orikhiv continue to challenge UAF defensive drone stabilization, which the enemy is exploiting with concentrated tube artillery.
3. Northern Axis (Kharkiv/Vovchansk):
Temperature Drop: Kharkiv is currently 4.7°C but is the first sector expected to hit the -7.5°C hard freeze. This will likely be the first area where Russian heavy armor gains full off-road mobility today.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (Tactical): The Russian "Vostok" Grouping is employing a "blind and blast" tactic—using electronic warfare and FPV strikes on repeaters to isolate UAF forward units before launching localized ground assaults.
VKS Employment: The shift to KAB strikes in Donetsk (0517Z) suggests Russian aviation is attempting to maximize damage to UAF fortifications while winds in the south (Zaporizhzhia) remain at the edge of the KAB employment envelope (near 10 m/s).
Logistics: The 24-hour duration of the Volna fire suggests substantial damage to storage or pumping infrastructure, which will degrade the refueling capacity of the Black Sea Fleet and southern grouping in the short term.
Friendly activity (UAF)
C2 Resilience: UAF signal units in the Polohy sector are likely pivoting to redundant satellite and cable-based communications as mast-mounted repeaters are targeted.
Diplomatic Maneuver: The dispatch of a delegation to Geneva (confirmed at 0510Z) suggests a strategic effort to secure energy infrastructure protection ahead of the late-winter cold snap, potentially buying time for grid repairs.
Information environment / disinformation
Energy Narrative: Russian state-aligned channels (0454Z, Dva Mayora) are coupling news of the Geneva talks with "doomsday" projections of total UAF energy collapse. This is a classic "pressure-negotiation" hybrid maneuver designed to force concessions during the trilateral meeting.
Morale Operations: "Archangel Spetsnaz" (0501Z) is using religious-tactical imagery to bolster domestic Russian resolve, portraying the conflict as a "Holy Trinity" defense to counter potential fatigue from the 123-drone swarm impacts.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Intense Russian artillery preparation in Zaporizhzhia will transition to localized armored probes as ground temperatures cross the 0°C threshold.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated VKS KAB strike across the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia sectors, timed with the arrival of the cold front, to overwhelm UAF defensive lines while ISR drones are grounded by high winds/icing.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[C2 STATUS] Assess the operational status of the UAF repeater network in Polohy; determine if "dark zones" exist that require emergency signal reinforcement.
[SITUATION ASSESSMENT] Confirm if the 668 strikes in Zaporizhzhia include the use of North Korean-supplied KN-23/24 ballistic missiles, which would indicate a strategic escalation.
[LOGISTICS] Monitor the 218th Tank Regiment for engine warm-up signatures (thermal) as a final indicator of a push past Tsvetkovoye.
