Bryansk Grid Collapse Confirmed: Mass blackout confirmed across Bryansk Oblast following UAF UAV strikes; Russian sources describe the scale of disruption as comparable to Belgorod (1831Z, Alex Parker Returns, HIGH).
Zaporizhzhia Tactical Shift: Russian "Vostok" units claim capture of Tsvetkovoye (Tsvilkove) and have initiated advances toward Krynychne, targeting the Verkhnya Tersa transport hub (1831Z, Rybar, MEDIUM).
Konotop Infrastructure Strike: Russian forces successfully struck a critical infrastructure object in Konotop (Sumy region), resulting in its destruction (1841Z, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH).
Urban Clearing Tactics: Elements of the UAF 101st Brigade are utilizing English-language surrender appeals and improvised heavy munitions (TM-62 anti-tank mines used as demolition charges) to clear foreign fighters from entrenched urban positions (1827Z, Butusov Plus, HIGH).
Strategic Air Defense Push: President Zelenskyy returned to Kyiv from the Munich Security Conference, prioritizing the acquisition of anti-ballistic missiles and energy support packages (1825Z, Zelenskiy/Official, HIGH).
Siverskyi Donets Interdiction: UAV footage confirms the 81st Airmobile Brigade's successful destruction of infiltrating Russian small units attempting river crossings (1836Z, Operativno ZSU, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern Axis (Bryansk/Sumy/Kharkiv):
Battlefield Geometry: The blackout in Bryansk Oblast is significantly disrupting the rear-area logistics of the "Sever" grouping. Concurrently, Russia has launched retaliatory strikes on infrastructure in Konotop to degrade Ukrainian logistics supporting the Bryansk deep-strike operations.
Weather: Kharkiv/Vovchansk remains at 0.9°C with 100% cloud cover and light rain. Precipitation (0.1mm) combined with near-freezing temperatures maintains high risk of icing on MSRs.
2. Eastern Sector (Donbas/Sloviansk):
Sloviansk Direction: Tactical situational awareness remains high; 81st Airmobile Brigade continues to neutralize Russian infantry filtration attempts near the Siverskyi Donets.
Urban Combat: Fighting continues in urban environments (likely Myrnohrad/Pokrovsk outskirts). UAF forces are adapting to the presence of non-Russian speaking combatants in Russian ranks by using English-language surrender demands.
Weather: Pokrovsk is at 4.3°C with wind speeds of 5.0 m/s, providing slightly better flight conditions for stabilized UAVs than the southern sector.
3. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Huliaipole/Verkhnya Tersa: GV "Vostok" is attempting to capitalize on the capture of Tsvetkovoye. The current vector of attack toward Krynychne suggests an operational intent to isolate Verkhnya Tersa, a critical hub for regional defense.
Force Sustainment: Russian MoD reported signalmen from GV "Vostok" are actively repairing severed cable lines in snowy conditions, indicating a concerted effort to maintain wired C2 resilience against electronic warfare (1845Z, MoD Russia, HIGH).
Weather: Orikhiv reports the highest frontline temperatures (6.8°C) but also the highest wind speeds (8.2 m/s), which significantly restricts tactical FPV operations and favors Russian mechanized movements.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action: Russia is reinforcing its tactical units (e.g., spare parts delivery to 56th Airborne Assault Regiment) while issuing high-level rhetorical warnings of "severe response" (1836Z, Putin via Alex Parker Returns).
C2 Adaptations: Russian reliance on wired communications in Zaporizhzhia indicates a shift away from vulnerable radio/cellular networks in the face of UAF signals intelligence.
Technical/IO: The promotion of Tajikistan’s national messenger "Oriz" (1845Z) and VPN services (1845Z) by Russian sources suggests ongoing anxiety regarding the security and availability of Telegram for military/civilian coordination.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Posture: UAF continues to leverage technical superiority in UAV-corrected artillery to prevent the consolidation of Russian bridgeheads in the Siverskyi Donets sector.
Urban Ops: The 2nd Battalion of the 101st Brigade is demonstrating high proficiency in "search-and-destroy" urban clearing, using massive improvised munitions to minimize friendly casualties during room clearing.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Framing: Pro-Russian channels are heavily amplifying a video of President Zelenskyy to frame him as "radical" for demanding the expulsion of Russians from the West (1821Z, Operatsiya Z).
Domestic Incidents: Reports of a shooting in a Khmelnytskyi shopping center (1838Z, RBC-Ukraine) may be used by enemy IO to suggest internal instability/lawlessness in Western Ukraine (UNCONFIRMED).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Russian forces will escalate missile/UAV strikes on Sumy and Zaporizhzhia as a direct response to the Bryansk blackout. Ground forces will attempt a localized push from Tsvetkovoye toward Krynychne.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A coordinated Russian breakthrough toward Verkhnya Tersa, combined with a synchronized ballistic missile strike on regional power nodes, leading to a localized collapse of the southern defensive line during high-wind conditions.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[TACTICAL] Confirm the strength of Russian forces moving from Tsvetkovoye toward Krynychne; identify if heavy armor (218th Tank Regiment) is leading the vanguard.
[OPERATIONAL] Assess the impact of the Konotop infrastructure strike on UAF drone launch capabilities in the northern sector.
[STRATEGIC] Monitor for indicators of "historically severe" retaliation mentioned in Kremlin-linked rhetoric; specifically, watch for Tu-95MS or Tu-160 movement at Engels-2 airbase.
