Odessa Logistics Strike: Russian "Geran" (Shahed) UAVs reportedly struck a critical transshipment hub in the Odessa region, causing significant fire damage (11:49Z, Poddubny, MEDIUM).
Sumy Border Engagement: Russian sources report an "offensive on Sumy," specifically claiming reconnaissance units are engaging UAF infantry and fire positions in the border zone (11:37Z, RusVesna, MEDIUM).
Myrnohrad Urban Combat: The 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade (ODShBr) is confirmed conducting search-and-strike operations within Myrnohrad and its outskirts, utilizing drones to engage Russian infantry groups (11:54Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH).
Pokrovsk Attrition: UAF drone units (Butusov Plus) documented sequential FPV strikes on Russian personnel in the Pokrovsk sector, claiming 12+ casualties (11:49Z, Butusov, HIGH).
UAF Counter-UAV Offensive: Pro-Russian sources report "massive" UAF drone launches targeting Russian positions/rear since yesterday evening (11:36Z, Dva Mayora, HIGH).
Grid Resilience: Reports indicate the Ukrainian energy grid remains stable in Kyiv and Western Ukraine despite ongoing strikes, with no planned outages in the capital today (11:28Z, Alex Parker, MEDIUM).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
Battlefield Geometry:
Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad Sector: The battlespace is increasingly urban/suburban. The 79th ODShBr is actively contesting Russian attempts to consolidate gains in Myrnohrad.
Northern Border (Sumy): A new tactical pressure point has emerged in the Sumy border region, characterized by RU reconnaissance-in-force operations.
Strategic Rear: Russia is focusing UAV strikes on logistics nodes (Odessa) rather than the electrical grid in Kyiv, likely attempting to disrupt the flow of Western maritime aid.
Environmental Factors:
Blizzard Conditions: Low visibility continues to favor short-range FPV drone operations and infantry-led "search-and-strike" missions over large-scale mechanized maneuvers.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions:
Sumy Diversion: The reported "offensive" in Sumy is likely a tactical-level diversion intended to draw UAF reserves away from the Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia fronts.
Logistics Interdiction: The strike on the Odessa "transshipment hub" (11:49Z) suggests an intentional shift back to targeting the "Grain Corridor" or incoming NATO military supplies.
Logistics & Sustainment:
Personnel Losses: Confirmed footage of sequential losses (12+) in the Pokrovsk direction indicates RU units are struggling with infantry survival in open terrain under UAF drone observation.
C2/Software Friction: Continued internal Russian debate regarding military software and communication security (11:55Z, Dva Mayora) suggests ongoing friction in their tactical digital transition.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Force Posture:
79th Separate Air Assault Brigade (ODShBr): Demonstrating high tactical proficiency in Myrnohrad, effectively using UAVs to identify and neutralize RU infantry clusters in a dynamic urban environment.
Deep Strike Capability: UAF continues to maintain a high tempo of drone launches (11:36Z), forcing RU air defenses into a reactive posture.
Internal Factors:
Anti-Corruption: The detention of ex-Energy Minister Halushchenko (11:29Z) is confirmed. This process appears to be isolated from current operational command and control.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Reflexive Control: Continued push for "UN external administration" and a "truce during elections" (11:41Z, Basurin) is a coordinated RU IO campaign to project a desire for de-escalation while simultaneously attacking Sumy and Odessa.
Domestic Propaganda: RU state media is emphasizing "hero profiles" (e.g., "Astrakhan" mortar commander) to maintain domestic support as casualty rates remain high.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
Sumy Border: RU forces will likely maintain localized pressure in the Sumy border area to force UAF deployment of quick-reaction forces (QRF).
Myrnohrad: Fighting will intensify as the 79th ODShBr attempts to clear RU footholds; expect heavy use of FPV "carousel" tactics to deny RU resupply.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
Sumy Breakthrough: If the RU recon activity in Sumy is the vanguard for a larger mechanized force (V-Group), a deeper penetration could threaten northern supply lines to the Donbas.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
[CRITICAL] Assess the scale of the RU force buildup in the Sumy direction. Is this a Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) level push or localized recon?
[HIGH] Verify the operational status of the Odessa transshipment hub post-strike.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the impact of the 137th Brigade's comms failure on their specific sector's frontline stability.
[MEDIUM] Determine if the lack of power outages in Kyiv is due to successful interception or a temporary shift in RU targeting priorities.
