Ballistic Threat Terminated (Kyiv/Central UA): The ballistic missile alert for Kyiv and northern/central regions issued earlier has been cleared as of 0719Z. No immediate impacts reported (UA Air Force, KMVA, HIGH).
Extreme Operational Intensity (Pokrovsk): GSZSU reports 59 Russian assault actions repelled in the Pokrovsk direction over the last 24 hours, confirming this as the Russian main effort (Liveuamap/GSZSU, 0710Z, HIGH).
Zaporizhzhia/Huliaipole Defense: UA forces repelled 19 assaults in the Huliaipole sector (Rybne, Zelene, Dobropillya). Heavy Russian aviation activity reported with strikes across 11+ settlements (Liveuamap/GSZSU, 0709Z, HIGH).
UA Strategic UAV Strike: Russian MoD claims to have intercepted 88 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs over Russian regions and the Black Sea in a 2-hour window (ASTRA, 0658Z, MEDIUM).
Energy Restoration Progress: UA Ministry of Energy released footage showing repairs to transformers and grid infrastructure under sub-zero conditions, signaling ongoing efforts to mitigate the recent blackout (Butusov Plus, 0658Z, HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
Battlefield Geometry:
The front remains highly kinetic across all sectors, with the highest concentration of Russian offensive maneuvers in the Pokrovsk and Huliaipole directions. Russian forces are utilizing a combination of high-volume ground assaults and tactical aviation to stress the Ukrainian "Active Defense." The clearance of the ballistic alert in Kyiv suggests a temporary pause in long-range missile strikes, though the air domain remains contested by UAVs in the southern sectors (Dnipropetrovsk).
Weather/Environmental Factors:
Continued extreme cold (-27°C) and snow are complicating both logistics and civilian survival. Muddy terrain in some sectors (noted in naval drone footage at 0717Z) suggests that while some ground is frozen, high-traffic areas or recent thaws are creating localized "rasputitsa" conditions, hindering heavy vehicle recovery.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions:
Massed Infantry Tactics: The report of 59 assaults in Pokrovsk and 19 in Huliaipole indicates the Russian command is committed to high-attrition, high-tempo infantry operations to find gaps in the UA line.
Aviation Pivot: Russian aviation is heavily engaged in the Zaporizhzhia region (11 settlements targeted), likely to support the "Vostok" grouping's attempts to exploit the Tsvetkovoye breach.
Logistics/Fundraising: The emergence of public fundraising for the 83rd Motor Rifle Regiment (Kharkiv direction) suggests localized supply strain or a lack of specialized equipment within tactical units (Dva Mayora, 0700Z).
Tactical Changes:
Russian forces are increasingly using thermal-equipped drones to hunt evacuation and repair teams, exploiting the high thermal signature of personnel against the -27°C background.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Force Posture:
Defensive Resilience: UA units are maintaining the line in the Donbas despite extreme pressure. Naval Forces are successfully integrating FPV drone strikes into ground support roles, as evidenced by the destruction of personnel and utility vehicles (Operativnyi ZSU, 0717Z).
Strategic Strike Capability: The massed UAV attack (88 units) indicates UA still maintains a high capacity for deep-strike operations, likely targeting Russian energy or aviation hubs to force a diversion of Russian AD assets (confirmed by previous reports of high activity at the 1st Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment).
Civil-Military Coordination: The 9:00 AM national "Minute of Silence" was observed despite active air alerts, indicating high institutional morale and standardized emergency protocols (GSZSU, 0658Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
RU Hybrid Maneuver: RU MFA (Galuzin) continues to push the narrative of a "day of silence" contingent on UA elections (0708Z). This remains a primary line of effort to sow domestic political discord.
Global Institutions: Russian state media (TASS) is amplifying claims of the "clinical death" of the WTO and G20, aiming to project an image of a collapsing Western-led world order to discourage UA's international support (0719Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will continue the high-intensity assault cycle in the Pokrovsk and Huliaipole sectors to prevent UA from rotating troops or stabilizing the line. UAV strikes on southern logistics hubs (Synelnykove) will persist.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Following the clearance of the ballistic alert, RU launches a "cold-start" missile wave at dusk, specifically targeting the energy repair teams identified in recent UA Ministry of Energy broadcasts to permanently degrade the grid during the -27°C freeze.
6. OUTLOOK (Next 6-12h)
Zaporizhzhia/Huliaipole: High probability of continued Russian tactical aviation strikes. UA reserves are likely to be committed to the Rybne-Dobropillya axis to prevent a wider breakthrough.
Dnipropetrovsk: Continued UAV threat for Synelnykove and southern rail hubs.
Kyiv: Temporary reprieve from ballistic threat, but high alert for follow-on drone swarms.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
[CRITICAL] Determine if the 88-UAV strike on RU territory successfully interdicted any launch platforms or munitions depots (specifically the 260th GRAU Arsenal).
[HIGH] Assess the impact of the 19 repelled assaults in Huliaipole on RU "Vostok" grouping's mechanized reserves.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the status of the H-08 highway near Zaporizhzhia following RU airstrikes on Trudove and Vozdvyzhivka.
