Mass UAV Saturation Attack: RU launched 83 "Shahed" type UAVs overnight; UA Air Defense intercepted/suppressed 55, with 25 confirmed hits across 12 locations (0613Z, UA Air Force/RBC-UA, HIGH).
Urban Combat in Myrnohrad: UA 79th Air Assault Brigade confirms high-intensity "search-and-strike" operations against small RU infantry groups within or near Myrnohrad (0603Z, 79th Air Assault, HIGH).
Logistics Interdiction (Dnipropetrovsk): RU UAVs vectored west past Pavlohrad, a critical logistics hub, resulting in two casualties and infrastructure damage (0610Z, UA Air Force/Operativny ZSU, HIGH).
RU Hybrid Political Maneuver: RU Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin proposed a cessation of strikes if Ukraine holds elections, likely a psychological operation aimed at domestic UA political stability (0619Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
Cross-Border Sabotage: Unconfirmed reports of partisan activity and sabotage in the Oryol region of Russia (0619Z, RBC-UA, LOW).
Command Posture: Detailed footage of Gerasimov’s inspection of the "Center" group confirms intent to maintain pressure on the Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad axis (0612Z, Basurin, HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
Battlefield Geometry:
The frontline in the Donbas is characterized by "small group" infantry tactics as RU attempts to infiltrate the outskirts of Myrnohrad. The UA 79th Air Assault Brigade is actively using drone-integrated infantry tactics to "hunt" these elements in the urban/suburban interface. In the South, the reported breach at Huliaipole (previous report) is being followed by drone strikes targeting local UA reserves.
Weather/Environmental Factors:
Temperature remains steady at -27°C. High thermal signatures are facilitating the UA "safari" missions in Myrnohrad, as RU infantry groups are easily detected against the frozen landscape. However, the frozen terrain continues to support RU mechanized mobility in open sectors like Zaporizhzhia.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions:
Mass UAV Employment: The launch of 83 drones (a significant increase from typical nightly averages) suggests an attempt to saturate UA Air Defense (AD) and deplete interceptor stocks ahead of a larger missile volley.
Course of Action: The "Center" grouping, under Gerasimov’s direct oversight, is prioritizing a grinding infantry-led advance on Pokrovsk. This is supported by the promotion of "hero" figures like Apti Alaudinov to maintain morale despite high attrition.
Hybrid Tactics: The offer of a "ceasefire for elections" combined with disinformation regarding UA failures at the Munich Security Conference indicates a coordinated effort to fracture UA internal unity and Western support.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Force Posture:
Counter-Infiltration: UAF units (specifically the 79th Air Assault) are demonstrating high proficiency in "thermal hunting" and urban defense, effectively preventing RU from consolidating positions inside Myrnohrad.
Air Defense: Despite the 66% interception rate, the 25 confirmed hits indicate that RU saturation tactics are finding gaps, particularly in the Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv sectors.
Morale: UAF units are maintaining a "donations and defense" narrative, using combat footage to drive civil-military support (Sternenko, 0618Z).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Disinformation: RU sources (Opera Z) are amplifying claims that Zelensky failed to secure funding in Munich due to EU internal disputes. This is likely intended to undermine confidence in UA strategic diplomacy.
Strategic Deception: The Galuzin "ceasefire" proposal is a classic Russian hybrid maneuver designed to frame UA leadership as "pro-war" for continuing the defense of the country.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RU will continue high-volume UAV launches over the next 24-48 hours to fix UA AD systems in place while the "Center" grouping attempts to seize key intersections in Myrnohrad.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massive missile strike (Kalibr/Kh-101) targeting the energy grid in Dnipropetrovsk and Pavlohrad, timed to coincide with the blizzard-induced peak load, to cause a regional blackout.
6. OUTLOOK (Next 6-12h)
Myrnohrad/Pokrovsk: High probability of continued infantry skirmishes and intense UA drone-directed artillery fire.
Dnipropetrovsk/Kharkiv: High alert for UAV re-entry. The "Pavlohrad west" vector (0610Z) suggests a possible attempt to strike supply lines moving toward the Zaporizhzhia front.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
[CRITICAL] Determine the impact of the 25 "confirmed hits" from the overnight UAV swarm—prioritize assessment of energy and rail infrastructure.
[HIGH] Verify the scale of the "partisan sabotage" in Oryol, RU, to determine if it signals a new phase of cross-border interdiction.
[MEDIUM] Monitor RU "Center" group radio traffic for signs of mechanized commitment following the Gerasimov inspection.
