Claimed Attrition at Ternovate: Russian sources (TASS via Andrey Marochko) claim UAF lost ~1,000 personnel over the last 72 hours during failed counter-attacks near Ternovate (2303Z, TASS, UNCONFIRMED/LOW).
"Civilian Cover" Narrative: Pro-Russian channels are disseminating video content alleging UAF use of civilian infrastructure for military operations (2303Z, Colonelcassad, UNCONFIRMED/LOW).
Diplomatic Exclusion of EU: RU Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin explicitly stated Europe has "forfeited" its seat at the negotiating table, reinforcing a Moscow-Washington bilateral negotiation preference (2308Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Zaporizhzhia Sector (Ternovate/Huliaipole): While the previous sitrep noted a breach at Huliaipole, new reports suggest high-intensity kinetic activity near Ternovate (approx. 20km west of Huliaipole). If RU claims of UAF counter-attacks are true, it indicates the UAF is attempting to blunt the "Vostok" group's momentum to prevent a wider collapse of the southern line.
Odesa/Southern Sector: No new kinetic arrivals reported in the last 30 minutes; however, the threat remains active following the confirmed penetrations at 2235Z. Damage assessment is ongoing.
Rear Areas: The information space is being primed with "Civilian Cover" narratives, often used by RU forces to justify future strikes on non-military buildings or to explain away high collateral damage.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Narrative Shaping: The 2300Z-2315Z window shows a heavy emphasis on information operations. By claiming massive UAF casualties at Ternovate and pushing the "civilian cover" video, the RU MoD is likely attempting to offset their own logistics "flatline" (260th GRAU Arsenal) with a perceived tactical success.
Diplomatic Maneuvering: Galuzin’s comments (2308Z) align with earlier rhetoric from Senator Pushkov. The objective is to isolate Ukraine from its European security partners by framing the EU as a non-entity in the conflict's resolution.
Logistics Status: Despite the diplomatic noise, the "silence" at the 260th GRAU Arsenal reported in the daily intel suggests that kinetic assets are already in forward positions. The diplomatic "peace talk" rhetoric acts as a mask for these pending operations.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Zaporizhzhia Counter-Maneuver: If RU claims of "1,000 casualties" are even partially based on high-intensity fighting, it suggests UAF has committed reserves to the Ternovate-Huliaipole axis to stabilize the Huliaipole breach.
Air Defense: Engagement of UAVs over Zaporizhzhia continues (ref: 2256Z). High alertness remains due to the potential transition to a "heavy" missile salvo.
Information environment / disinformation
Casualty Inflation: The claim of 1,000 casualties in 3 days in a localized sector (Ternovate) is likely a significant exaggeration intended to demoralize UAF forces and domestic RU audiences during the -27°C cold snap.
Human Shield Allegations: The "Civilian Cover" video (Colonelcassad) should be treated as a precursor to kinetic strikes on urban centers. This is a standard RU hybrid warfare tactic to provide "legal" cover for IHL (International Humanitarian Law) violations.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): RU forces will continue exploiting the Huliaipole-Ternovate sector using mechanized assets while the ground is frozen. Information operations will intensify to frame the EU as irrelevant.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A coordinated "Deep Strike" utilizing the munitions moved from the 260th GRAU Arsenal, timed with the peak of the blizzard to degrade UAF thermal/optical reconnaissance and hit the energy grid.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] Verify UAF casualty/attrition rates in the Ternovate sector via internal COMINT/SIGINT to assess if RU claims reflect a genuine tactical setback.
[HIGH] Geolocate the "Civilian Cover" video to identify which city or facility is being targeted by RU narrative-shaping.
[MEDIUM] Monitor for thermal signatures of RU mechanized columns moving toward Ternovate; the -27°C temp makes engine heat-sigs high-contrast targets for satellite/UAV thermals.
