UAF Deep Strike Campaign: Coordinated UAV attacks targeted Sochi, Novorossiysk, and Sevastopol; Russian air defenses (AD) actively engaged (2042Z, Colonelcassad; 2102Z, Alex Parker, HIGH).
Sochi Infrastructure Target: Unconfirmed reports indicate UAF drones targeted a refinery (NPZ) in the Sochi area (2102Z, Alex Parker, LOW).
Southern UAV Maneuver: A Russian loitering munition wave originating from the Black Sea targeted Odesa (Sanzhijka/Chornomorsk) before an "all clear" was issued (2035Z-2057Z, Air Force UA, HIGH).
Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia Vector: Russian UAVs are currently transiting eastern Dnipropetrovsk toward Pokrovske and Novomykolaivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast (2100Z, Air Force UA, HIGH).
Diplomatic Friction: Danish PM Mette Frederiksen criticized Western "red lines" and the slow pace of AD deliveries at the Munich Security Conference (2049Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Odesa/Black Sea): A localized UAV threat from the Black Sea vector (targeting Sanzhijka, Chornomorsk, and Lymanka) was resolved by 2057Z. No kinetic impacts reported in Odesa city limits during this window.
Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk Border: Russian loitering munitions are exploiting the boundary between these regions, moving toward Pokrovske. This flight path correlates with the reported Russian tactical pressure near Huliaipole (ref. Previous Daily Report).
Russian Rear (Crimea/Krasnodar Krai): Significant AD activity reported across the Black Sea coast. Russian sources claim 9 UAVs intercepted over Sevastopol. Strikes in Sochi appear targeted at energy infrastructure (refinery).
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Capabilities: Russian forces continue to demonstrate the ability to launch multi-axis loitering munition strikes, likely using the Black Sea as a launch platform or transit corridor to bypass coastal AD.
AD Response: The simultaneous engagement of targets in Sochi, Novorossiysk, and Sevastopol suggests a coordinated saturation effort by UAF is taxing Russian regional AD density.
Course of Action: The shift of UAVs toward Novomykolaivka (Zaporizhzhia) suggests Russian intention to disrupt Ukrainian tactical reserves or logistics supporting the Huliaipole defensive line.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strike Operations: UAF is maintaining a high operational tempo for deep-state strikes. The use of strike drones by the 20th Brigade NGU "Lyubart" in snowy conditions confirms continued tactical proficiency despite extreme temperatures (-27°C) noted in earlier reports (2058Z).
Strategic Communication: Ukraine continues to leverage international forums (MSC) to advocate for the removal of long-range strike restrictions, supported by Baltic/Nordic partners (Denmark).
Information environment / disinformation
Domestic Repression: Ukrainian intelligence reports a spike in Russian domestic arrests for social media activity, suggesting a tightening of internal security to suppress dissent regarding the winter campaign (2035Z, RBK-UA).
RU MoD Narrative: Official Russian channels are emphasizing "widespread strikes" on Ukrainian infrastructure to project strength following the reported penetrations of their own airspace in Sochi (2055Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued Russian UAV pressure on the Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhzhia axis to facilitate the reported breach at Huliaipole. UAF will likely continue to launch "nuisance" or mapping drone strikes against Russian coastal refineries.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Given the clear weather over the Black Sea (UAV transit) and the extreme cold, a coordinated missile strike targeting the energy grid in Odesa or Dnipro is highly probable to maximize the humanitarian impact of the current freeze.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm damage assessment at the Sochi refinery; identify if the facility is operational.
[HIGH] Determine the launch origin of the UAVs that approached Odesa from the Black Sea (Sea-based vs. Crimean launch).
[MEDIUM] Assess the status of the "Barrazh-1" 5G platform (ref. Previous Sitrep) during the current UAV wave to determine if it is facilitating terminal guidance.
