Nationwide Energy Curtailment: Ukrenergo has announced mandatory rolling blackout schedules for all Ukrainian regions effective tomorrow, Feb 15 (1658Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
Russian Infiltration near Kostiantynivka: RU assault units have reportedly achieved "deep infiltration" and secured positions on the approaches to Kostiantynivka (1643Z, Arkhangel Spetsnaza, MEDIUM).
Sustained Ammunition Procurement: President Zelenskyy met with Czech President Petr Pavel at the Munich Security Conference to ensure the "Czech initiative" delivery schedule remains uninterrupted (1646Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH).
Kupyansk Sector Activity: RU forces conducted a successful assault on UAF positions in the Kupyansk direction, resulting in localized UAF losses (1703Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
Diplomatic Signal: Zelenskyy publicly expressed reliance on the US Presidency as the primary negotiating partner during the Munich Security Conference (1701Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Sumy/Kursk): No significant changes in territory since 1634Z. Atmospheric conditions (-27°C) continue to dictate operational tempo.
Eastern Sector (Donbas/Kostiantynivka/Kupyansk):
Kostiantynivka: RU units (likely Spetsnaz or specialized assault groups) are utilizing winter conditions to conduct infiltration maneuvers. Claims of "securing approaches" suggest the buffer zone around the city is shrinking.
Kupyansk: Kinetic activity has resulted in the loss of at least one UAF fighting position; RU forces are documenting "clearing" operations.
Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad: No new data on the 5th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade movements; baseline assumes ongoing consolidation on the northern flank.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Crimea): Huliaipole breach (reported 24h ago) remains uncontained. Sevastopol Governor activity suggests continued high-alert status following earlier drone/missile threats, though no new impacts are confirmed.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Tactical Shift: RU is prioritizing "deep infiltration" by small assault groups over massed mechanized pushes in the Donbas. This matches the earlier reported shift toward ATVs and motorcycles to mitigate UAF drone dominance.
Assault Doctrine: Video evidence from the Kupyansk and Kostiantynivka axes shows RU "storm-Z" or Spetsnaz units operating in decentralized pairs/trios to clear fortified houses, suggesting a high degree of tactical autonomy in urban/semi-urban terrain.
Strategic Logistics: The 260th GRAU Arsenal remains "silent." Combined with the Ukrenergo announcement of blackouts, this strongly suggests RU munitions have been distributed to launch platforms for a synchronized theater-wide strike tonight.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Resilience: UAF is pre-emptively managing the power grid (rolling blackouts) to prevent a total collapse in the event of infrastructure strikes during the current deep freeze.
Logistics/Sustainment: Continued focus on the "Czech initiative" highlights the critical shortage of 155mm and 122mm shells. Zelenskyy’s direct engagement with Pres. Pavel underscores the urgency of delivery timelines.
Force Posture: UAF remains in a defensive crouch in the East, focusing on attriting RU "infiltrators" while managing the fallout of the Huliaipole breach in the South.
Information environment (Cognitive domain)
RU Foreign Influence: RU state media (TASS) is highlighting Putin's outreach to Iran and delegitimizing Ukrainian activists (Myrotvorets database entries), likely to reinforce the "Global South" alignment and paint Ukraine as extremist.
Regional Destabilization: RU-aligned channels are amplifying political/religious friction in Armenia (the Karekin II case) to distract Western observers and signal RU's ability to trigger instability in the South Caucasus.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RU will initiate a massed missile and Shahed-type UAV strike targeting the Ukrainian energy transit nodes between 2200Z and 0400Z. The goal is to collapse the grid during the -27°C window.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Exploiting the "deep infiltration" near Kostiantynivka, RU forces may attempt a night-time decapitation strike against local UAF command nodes to collapse the sector's defense before the morning.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine if the "deep infiltration" near Kostiantynivka has reached the main defensive belt or is confined to the "gray zone" outskirts.
[HIGH] Verify the status of the Huliaipole breach; are RU "Vostok" groups transitioning from a breach to an exploitation phase toward the N-15 highway?
[MEDIUM] Monitor RU Black Sea Fleet movement for Kalibr-capable vessel sorties to corroborate the suspected imminent strike window.
