Sevastopol Under Active UAV Attack: Russian air defense systems are currently engaging a "massive" Ukrainian drone swarm targeting the Sevastopol port and naval facilities (1439Z, 1448Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH).
Belgorod Heating Collapse Formalized: Governor Gladkov confirmed residents will lack hot water and centralized heating for the remainder of the winter season due to cumulative infrastructure damage from UAV strikes (1445Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
Inbound Shahed/UAV Waves: UAF Air Force reports new drone threats entering Mykolaiv Oblast from the south (1445Z) and Sumy Oblast from the west (1446Z), indicating a multi-vector probing operation (1445Z, Air Force UA, HIGH).
UAF Drone Success near Kostiantynivka: The "Phoenix" drone unit confirmed multiple precision strikes against Russian personnel and equipment attempting to advance under cover of poor weather (1458Z, Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM).
Diplomatic Friction (HU/UA): Russian sources are amplifying reports that Hungarian PM Orbán has effectively blocked Ukraine's EU accession path following a personal dispute with President Zelensky (1436Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM).
Navalny Poisoning Attribution: A joint statement from five European nations (UK, SE, FR, DE, NL) alleges the use of the toxin epibatidine in the killing of Alexei Navalny, escalating diplomatic pressure on the Kremlin (1451Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern/Slobozhansky Sector: Aerial activity has shifted from Kharkiv toward Sumy, with a UAV detected moving toward Putyvl from the west (1446Z). This likely represents a tactical shift to bypass established EW screens.
Eastern Sector (Donbas): Encounter battles continue near Kostiantynivka. UAF drone units are successfully exploiting the lack of Russian mobile EW in sub-zero conditions (-27°C) to interdict personnel movements (1458Z).
Southern Sector: Shahed drones have been tracked moving toward Solonchaky (Mykolaiv Oblast) from a southern vector (likely Crimea or the Black Sea). This suggests a maritime-based launch platform or a wide-arc flight path to avoid radar (1445Z).
Crimea: The Sevastopol air alert remains active. Continuous AA fire and explosions reported as Russian forces attempt to intercept a coordinated UAF drone wave (1439Z).
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Course of Action (Defensive): Russian forces in Crimea are currently in a reactive posture. The intensity of the Sevastopol attack may be designed to fix Russian air defense assets in the south while UAF prepares for operations elsewhere.
Force Disposition: Despite claims of "liberation" in Dimitrov (noted in previous sitrep), there is no evidence of a Russian breakthrough. Instead, units are struggling with winter logistics and are being picked off by "Phoenix" drone teams in the Kostiantynivka area (1458Z).
Aviation: "Fighterbomber" (1454Z) signals continued high-readiness for Russian tactical aviation, though extreme cold may be impacting sortie rates for older airframes.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Operations: UAF has maintained pressure on the Crimean Peninsula, successfully triggering high-volume air defense expenditures in Sevastopol.
Precision Interdiction: UAF drone units are demonstrating high tactical proficiency in "encounter battles" near Pokrovsk/Kostiantynivka, using thermal-equipped UAVs to negate Russian attempts at movement during blizzards.
Strategic Communication: The Munich Security Conference remains a platform for UAF advocates (Denmark) to lobby for the removal of "red lines" on Western weapon usage (1451Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Energy Warfare Narrative: Russian mil-bloggers (Dva Mayora, 1436Z) are pivoting from "all is well" to highlighting the suffering in Belgorod. This is assessed as a domestic mobilization tactic to build public support for a massive retaliatory strike on Ukrainian energy hubs.
EU Accession Weaponization: The amplification of the Orbán/Zelensky rift by RU channels (1436Z) is a targeted hybrid operation aimed at demoralizing the Ukrainian populace regarding Western integration.
Digitalization Critiques: RU "Arkhangel Spetsnaza" (1446Z) is actively monitoring and criticizing UAF's digitalization of the battlefield, indicating RU intelligence is deeply concerned with Ukraine's lead in networked warfare.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued Shahed/UAV probing of Mykolaiv and Sumy to identify gaps in the UAF grid, followed by a synchronized missile strike targeting Kyiv’s thermal power plants.
MDCOA: A massive missile salvo launched concurrently with the current drone wave over Sevastopol to overwhelm UAF air defenses during a period of peak environmental stress (-27°C).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine if the "high-speed target" (1423Z) in the previous report was a successful strike or an interception, as this dictates the current RU missile reserve status.
[HIGH] Verify the status of Russian Black Sea Fleet assets during the current Sevastopol drone attack—specifically if any Kalibr-capable vessels were struck.
[MEDIUM] Monitor for confirmation of the "epibatidine" poisoning report from official state department/ministry of foreign affairs channels to assess the likelihood of new EU/UK sanctions.
