Intensified KAB Strikes (Donetsk): Russian tactical aviation has launched a series of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting Ukrainian positions in the Donetsk region (1323Z, Air Force UA, HIGH).
Economic/IMF Relief: The IMF has reportedly eased conditions for Ukraine’s $8.1 billion credit program, specifically removing immediate requirements for VAT on Individual Entrepreneurs (FOPs) and other tax hikes (1327Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
Combat Activity (Kharkiv Sector): Pro-Russian Chechen "Akhmat" units (West-Akhmat) and the 116th Rosgvardia Brigade are reportedly conducting drone-guided assaults on Volchanskiye Khutora, Kharkiv Oblast (1326Z, Kadyrov_95, MEDIUM).
Infrastructure Resilience: The Ukrainian Ministry of Digital Transformation has successfully launched 5G services in Kharkiv despite ongoing kinetic pressure (1310Z, MinTsifry, HIGH).
Internal Friction Exploitation: Visual evidence emerged of a physical altercation between Ukrainian Territorial Recruitment Center (TCC) personnel and a civilian on a city street; this follows the earlier reported detention death in Kyiv and is being rapidly amplified by pro-RU channels (1315Z, Chef Hayabusa, HIGH).
RU Digital Censorship: Reports indicate that Russia is moving toward the total blocking or throttling of YouTube and WhatsApp, following the previous mandate for the "Max" messenger platform (1259Z, Mobilizatsiya, MEDIUM).
Political Friction (EU/NATO): Hungarian PM Orbán explicitly stated Ukraine will not become an EU member, citing personal insults from President Zelenskyy (1322Z, TASS, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Kharkiv Sector: Russian forces are attempting to dislodge UAF from Volchanskiye Khutora. Activity is characterized by heavy use of FPV drones and drone-guided artillery in snowy conditions.
Donetsk Sector: Significant increase in Russian aerial activity. The use of KABs suggests a continued Russian effort to degrade UAF defensive nodes and hardened structures ahead of possible ground maneuvers.
Zaporizhzhia/Southern Sector: Low-altitude Shahed-type UAVs detected moving north through the southwest of the city (1300Z). Regional authorities are prioritizing civilian survival, distributing "Warmth Packages" (blankets/power banks) to mitigate the impact of energy strikes.
Rear Areas: The 5G rollout in Kharkiv signals a strategic priority to maintain advanced communications infrastructure even in high-threat environments.
Enemy analysis
Tactical Adaptations: RU "Spetsnaz" units continue to utilize thermal-equipped UAVs for sequential strikes on personnel, specifically targeting those attempting to evacuate or examine casualties (1303Z). This "double-tap" drone tactic is highly effective in the current -27°C environment where thermal signatures are prominent.
Force Generation/Composition: The deployment of Chechen "Akhmat" units alongside regular Rosgvardia and specialized reconnaissance companies in Kharkiv indicates a tiered assault structure, likely using drone-heavy reconnaissance to compensate for high attrition in urban/semi-urban environments.
Domestic Control: The move to block YouTube/WhatsApp suggests the RU government is tightening the domestic information space, likely to prevent the spread of internal dissent or news of casualties as recruitment incentives (1:3 seniority ratio) are rolled out.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Economic Stabilization: The IMF condition softening provides the Ukrainian government with critical fiscal breathing room to maintain social stability without immediate tax-driven domestic friction.
Civil Defense: The distribution of 7,000+ survival kits in Zaporizhzhia (1259Z) indicates a proactive approach to managing the humanitarian impact of winter energy insecurity.
Strategic Communication: Ukrainian officials are highlighting the massive budgetary cost of energy strikes (Svyrydenko) to bolster the case for immediate air defense and economic aid at the Munich Security Conference.
Information environment / disinformation
"TCC Brutality" Narrative: RU IO (Information Operations) are now systematically aggregating videos of street-level mobilization friction (1315Z). This is a coordinated effort to frame the Ukrainian mobilization as failing or illegitimate.
EU Accession Friction: TASS-led reporting on Orbán’s comments (1322Z) aims to signal a lack of European unity regarding Ukraine's long-term integration.
Rutte Disinformation: RU channels are propagating a fabricated story claiming NATO's Mark Rutte discussed Ukraine’s fate with "Patron the dog" (1326Z). This low-level mockery is intended to trivialize NATO's strategic commitment.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Continued KAB strikes in the Donetsk sector and drone-led probing in Kharkiv (Volchanskiye Khutora). RU will continue to prioritize thermal hunting of personnel during nighttime hours.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A coordinated Shahed/Missile strike targeting the newly identified 5G infrastructure or energy nodes in Kharkiv/Zaporizhzhia while temperatures remain at critical lows.
Logistics Note: The IMF decision and 5G launch suggest a "business as usual" signal from Kyiv intended to maintain investor and partner confidence during the Munich Security Conference.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[HIGH] Confirm the current control status of Volchanskiye Khutora following reported Akhmat drone strikes.
[MEDIUM] Monitor for disruptions in YouTube/WhatsApp services within Russia to confirm if the reported throttling is a regional trial or a nationwide rollout.
[MEDIUM] Assess the impact of the IMF's eased conditions on the planned "PURL" missile procurement program.
