Pokrovsk Assault Intensity: UAF General Staff reports a massive surge in Russian offensive activity in the Pokrovsk sector, recording 56 separate assault actions within the last 24 hours (Liveuamap Source, 0922Z, HIGH).
Trilateral Geneva Negotiations: Reports indicate a high-level trilateral meeting between Ukraine, the US, and Russia scheduled for Feb 17 in Geneva, coinciding with US-Iran talks (Operatyvnyi ZSU/Reuters, 0921Z, MEDIUM).
Aviation Strike Expansion: RU aviation has intensified KAB (guided bomb) strikes across the Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv regions (AF UAF, 0905Z, 0917Z; General Staff, 0921Z, HIGH).
Successful Rear-Area Interdiction: UAF confirmed strikes against a Russian BK-16 transport boat, an RSP-10 radar system, a communications node, and an ammunition depot across Crimea and southern fronts (General Staff ZSU, 0929Z, HIGH).
Thermobaric Capability Evolution: Evidence suggests RU is fielding the RG-60TB thermobaric hand grenade and potentially the TOS-3 "Dragon" (18km range) to enhance urban clearing capabilities (Basurin/Rybar, 0907Z, 0915Z, MEDIUM).
UNCONFIRMED - Polish Amnesty: Pro-RU sources claim the Polish Sejm passed retroactive amnesty for citizens fighting for Ukraine. This remains unverified by official Polish channels (WarGonzo, 0916Z, LOW).
Operational picture (by sector)
Pokrovsk Sector (Main Effort): This is the primary RU line of effort. 56 assaults were repelled near Rodynske, Pokrovsk city, and toward the MSRs at Kucheriv Yar. The high volume of attacks indicates RU is attempting to saturate Ukrainian defenses to prevent the consolidation of new interior lines mentioned in the previous sitrep.
Kostiantynivka Axis: RU conducted 18 attacks near Kleban-Byk and Stepanivka. This sector remains a high-pressure zone as RU attempts to widen the salient south of Kramatorsk (Liveuamap Source, 0922Z).
South Slobozhansky (Kharkiv) / Kupiansk: Increased pressure with 15 breach attempts near Vovchansk and Starytsya. UAV activity is currently tracking toward Kharkiv from the southwest, likely for BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) or targeting (AF UAF, 0909Z).
Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk: RU aviation is conducting a coordinated "strike box" operation. Significant KAB strikes were recorded in 15+ settlements, including Huliaipole and Pokrovske (Dnipropetrovsk), suggesting a localized air campaign to disrupt UAF logistical depth (Liveuamap Source, 0921Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Innovation: The introduction of the RG-60TB thermobaric grenade and the rumored TOS-3 "Dragon" indicates a Russian tactical shift toward maximizing lethality against entrenched infantry in urban settings while increasing the standoff distance for high-value thermobaric platforms.
Air Domain: RU continues to exploit gaps in GBAD using Geran (Shahed) drones to probe Kharkiv and Kramatorsk (Colonelcassad, 0910Z). The high volume of KAB launches suggests RU has established localized air superiority or is utilizing high-altitude release profiles that exceed current UAF interception envelopes in the south.
C2/Logistics Vulnerability: The arrest of Ksenia Grashchenkova (Kalashnikov Concern) for abuse of power suggests internal RU friction regarding procurement and logistics, which may correlate with the reported logistical strains in the Belgorod region (Colonelcassad, 0917Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Resilience: UAF units maintained the integrity of the Pokrovsk pocket despite a significant disparity in assault volume (56 RU assaults in 24h).
Kinetic Deep Strikes: Successful targeting of the RSP-10 radar and BK-16 boat demonstrates UAF's continued capability to degrade RU maritime logistics and surveillance in the Azov/Black Sea basin (General Staff ZSU, 0929Z).
Diplomatic Posture: UAF leadership is likely preparing for the Feb 17 Geneva "test" of RU intentions. US Senator Marco Rubio's comments suggest the US will maintain sanctions pressure while using these talks to gauge RU's actual willingness to negotiate (STERNENKO, 0910Z).
Information environment / disinformation
"The Iranian Pivot": RU-aligned channels (Alex Parker Returns) are heavily promoting a narrative of imminent US-Iran conflict. This is likely intended to demoralize UAF forces by suggesting Western military resources will be diverted away from Eastern Europe.
Polish Legality Narrative: RU media is amplifying claims of Polish legislative changes to frame the conflict as a "NATO proxy war" involving direct foreign national participation (WarGonzo, 0916Z).
Internal RU Discipline: RU state media (TASS) is focusing on domestic scams and corporate arrests (Kalashnikov), possibly to distract from the energy/heating crisis in Belgorod.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued high-intensity infantry assaults in Pokrovsk. RU will likely use the current cold snap (-27°C) and clear skies to maximize KAB employment against UAF rear-area hubs in Dnipropetrovsk.
MDCOA: RU achieves a breakthrough in the Vovchansk (Kharkiv) sector, forcing UAF to divert reserves from Pokrovsk to prevent a new cross-border penetration.
Diplomatic: Increased rhetoric from both Moscow and Washington leading up to the Feb 17 Geneva meetings.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the operational status and deployment locations of the TOS-3 "Dragon" to determine if they are being integrated into the Pokrovsk assault groups.
[HIGH] Identify the specific launch platforms for the recent KAB strikes in Dnipropetrovsk to assess if RU is utilizing new forward arming and refueling points (FARPs).
[MEDIUM] Monitor Polish official channels for any verification of the "amnesty law" mentioned by pro-RU sources to determine if this is a genuine policy shift or pure disinformation.
