Active UAV Engagement (Mykolaiv): Two OWA UAVs entered Mykolaiv from the south, transited the city center (Varvarivskyi Bridge), and exited the urban area as of 0302Z (Николаевский Ванёк, 0302Z, HIGH).
Tactical Aviation Strike (Zaporizhzhia): Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) have launched KAB guided aerial bombs toward the Zaporizhzhia region (AFU Air Force, 0303Z, HIGH).
Technical Adaptation (FPV/Mines): Russian units have deployed an updated "Molniya" fixed-wing FPV drone capable of remote dispersal of 3D-printed anti-personnel mines and caltrops (Colonelcassad, 0303Z, MEDIUM).
Strategic Aid Commitment: NATO Secretary General Rutte confirmed $15B in US weapons (EU-funded) for Ukraine in 2026 (TASS/PBS, 0242Z, MEDIUM).
External Escalation Report: Unconfirmed reports suggest US preparation for a multi-week operation against Iran, potentially impacting global resource allocation (RBC-Ukraine/Reuters, 0254Z, LOW/UNCONFIRMED).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Sector (Mykolaiv/Ochakiv): The UAV group detected at 0207Z successfully penetrated Mykolaiv's outer defenses, transiting Kulbakino and the city center (Varvarivskyi Bridge) before moving north/northwest. This flight path suggests a reconnaissance-in-force to map inner-city AD positions or a transit toward inland infrastructure.
Southeastern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): The launch of KABs indicates a shift from OWA UAV saturation to tactical aviation strikes. This likely targets forward assembly areas or logistics hubs supporting the Pokrovsk-Zaporizhzhia axis.
Central Sector (Dnipro): Following the 0234Z engagement, no new kinetic updates have been received. IADS remains on high alert.
Northern Sector (Sumy): Air alert remains active (RBC-Ukraine, 0235Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Innovation: The "Molniya" FPV variant (0303Z) represents a significant threat to Ukrainian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs). Remote mining via fixed-wing UAVs allows the enemy to interdict supply routes deep behind the 0-line without risking personnel, particularly effective in the current -27°C environment where manual mine clearing is slowed.
Multi-Vector Pressure: The enemy is simultaneously utilizing OWA UAVs (Mykolaiv/Sumy), tactical aviation/KABs (Zaporizhzhia), and potential missile platforms. This maintains high stress on the Ukrainian Integrated Air Defense System (IADS) and forces difficult resource-allocation decisions between urban centers and front-line positions.
Information Hybridity: Russian sources are amplifying Western reports of US-Iran tensions (0254Z) to foster a narrative of "Western fatigue" or shifting priorities, aiming to undermine Ukrainian confidence in long-term US support despite the $15B aid announcement.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Maneuver: MFGs (Mobile Fire Groups) in the Mykolaiv sector tracked the transiting UAVs through the city. The exit of the drones from the city limits without reported impact suggests successful evasion or a non-kinetic mission profile (ELINT/SIGINT).
Strategic Diplomacy: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is signaling progress on US Congressional ratification of security guarantees, a critical step for long-term defensive stability (0236Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Diversionary Narratives: The sudden influx of reporting on Iran and US internal Congressional processes (0236Z, 0254Z) appears timed to distract from the active infrastructure strikes and the extreme humanitarian conditions caused by the freeze.
Targeted Narrative Reinforcement: Russian channels continue to focus on Vladimir Medinsky (0301Z), reinforcing the "failed peace" narrative to justify the current winter offensive as a "forced" necessity.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued KAB strikes in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson sectors to soften defensive lines, combined with a second wave of OWA UAVs launched from Crimea/Primorsko-Akhtarsk to exploit AD fatigue from the overnight raids.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated missile strike (Kalibr/Kh-101) timed for 0500Z-0700Z to coincide with the morning peak in the energy grid, utilizing the intelligence gathered by the Mykolaiv and Dnipro UAV probes to bypass active AD batteries.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Identify the current vector of the UAVs that exited Mykolaiv at 0302Z.
[HIGH] Confirm the deployment areas of the "Molniya" FPV drones to issue "Warning Order" (WARNO) to logistics convoys regarding remote mining.
[MEDIUM] Monitor for VKS A-50 or Il-20 activity over the Sea of Azov, which would indicate coordination for a larger missile event.
