UAV Ingress (Dnipropetrovsk): One-way attack (OWA) UAVs (Shahed-type) detected over Pysmenne, Dnipropetrovsk region, approaching from the south (0020Z, Air Force ZSU, HIGH).
Targeted Disinformation (Kyiv TCC Narrative): Pro-Russian channels began circulating graphic footage of a civilian death in Kyiv, allegedly during a forced mobilization (TCC) encounter (0015Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM).
Rapid Counter-IO Response: Ukrainian officials confirmed the incident occurred on February 8 and was attributed to heart disease, though criminal proceedings are open against officers; the timing of the video release is assessed as a deliberate hybrid provocation (0028Z, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH).
Strategic Economic Shift: Russian state media reports BRICS progress on a precious metals exchange, continuing the narrative of Western economic decoupling (0027Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern/Central Sector (Dnipropetrovsk): A new axis of UAV harassment has emerged. The movement of drones over Pysmenne suggests a possible vector toward industrial hubs in Kryvyi Rih or Dnipro, or an attempt to bypass existing IADS corridors established around Odesa.
Northern Sector (Kyiv): No kinetic strikes reported in the last 30 minutes. However, the information environment in the capital is under heavy pressure from recycled "police brutality" narratives intended to incite civil unrest.
Eastern Front: No new tactical data since 0004Z. Mobile "encounter battles" near Pokrovsk are presumed to continue amidst the -27°C freeze.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical UAV Operations: The launch of Shaheds from the south into Dnipropetrovsk indicates the enemy is maintaining a multi-axis "probing" strategy. These are likely low-density salvos intended to force UAF to reveal SAM positions before the anticipated massed missile strike.
Hybrid Operations: The release of the Kyiv detention video (0015Z) just as temperatures remain at critical lows is a classic "pressure point" operation. By weaponizing a six-day-old tragic incident as "current," the enemy seeks to exploit domestic frustration with mobilization and the harsh environmental conditions.
Cyber/Signal Threat: Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) has begun publicizing mobile malware scenarios (0011Z). This may signal an impending uptick in "phishing" or "spoofing" campaigns targeting UAF personnel or civilian infrastructure workers.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Information Defense: Ukrainian state media and police displayed high reactivity, debunking the Russian "fresh death" narrative within 13 minutes of its viral peak on pro-Russian Telegram channels.
Air Defense: ZSU Air Force is actively tracking OWA UAVs over central-southern Ukraine. Engagement is likely occurring or imminent in the Dnipropetrovsk sector.
Information environment / disinformation
Narrative Analysis: The enemy's information effort is currently bifurcated:
Domestic/Occupied: Mariupol "reconstruction" videos (Colonelcassad) to project stability.
Ukrainian Rear: "TCC brutality" videos to erode trust in the ZSU and State institutions.
Fact-Check: The Kyiv death video circulating (0015Z) is confirmed as an incident from February 8, not current (0028Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued Shahed probing across the southern and central oblasts. The 0300Z–0500Z window remains the highest-risk period for the "Quiet Depot" missile strike from the 260th GRAU Base assets.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Synchronized cyber-attacks on energy grid management systems combined with the massed missile volley to maximize the cascading failure of heating infrastructure in -27°C weather.
Decision Point: If UAV density increases in the Kyiv/Dnipropetrovsk corridors between 0100Z-0200Z, it should be treated as the final suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) phase before a missile launch.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Real-time monitoring of Pysmenne UAV flight path to determine if the target is energy infrastructure or military logistics.
[HIGH] SIGINT on Russian Long-Range Aviation (LRA) "Bear" (Tu-95) frequencies for "Voice of the North" or similar launch-order traffic.
[MEDIUM] Assessment of civilian morale in Kyiv following the TCC-related disinformation spike; monitor for localized protests or unrest.
