Zaporizhzhia Air Alert Terminated: Regional military administration issued an "All Clear" at 2207Z, indicating the immediate aerial threat to the southern corridor has subsided (2207Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH).
Strike on Novhorod-Siverskyi Administrative Infrastructure: A "Geran" (Shahed) type UAV destroyed the administrative building of the Novgorod-Siverskyi district in Chernihiv Oblast. Structural damage is reported as severe (2212Z, RBC-Ukraine/Seliverstov, HIGH).
Disinformation Campaign targeting IAEA: Russian state-aligned channels are circulating claims that the IAEA is assisting Russia in targeting the Ukrainian energy grid. This is assessed as a narrative pivot to justify future infrastructure strikes (2211Z, RVvoenkor, LOW/DISINFORMATION).
Strategic Moral Recognition: President Zelenskyy awarded the Order of Liberty to skeleton athlete Vladyslav Heraskevych, linking the sports protest against Russian aggression to the broader national defense narrative (2219Z, Zelenskiy/Official, HIGH).
Russian-Iranian-US Diplomatic Posturing: TASS reports RU/PRC mediation between Iran and the US, likely an attempt to project Russian diplomatic relevance amidst growing pressure on Iranian supply chains (2216Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Chernihiv/Sumy): The strike on Novhorod-Siverskyi confirms that RU forces are maintaining kinetic pressure on border administrative centers. This "harassment" strategy aims to divert UAF civil defense and AD resources away from the primary Pokrovsk and Kyiv axes.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): The termination of the air alert suggests a localized pause in RU long-range aviation or UAV activity in the south.
Eastern Front (Pokrovsk/Donbas): Per the previous daily report, "encounter battles" continue. UAF units are utilizing high-mobility maneuvers to bypass RU strongpoints, forcing the RU "Vostok" group into unfavorable mobile engagements.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Course of Action: RU is utilizing single-ship UAV strikes on symbolic administrative targets (Novhorod-Siverskyi) to maintain a state of "distributed threat" while major assets reset.
Logistics/Sustainment: The "Quiet Depot" warning (260th Central Rocket Artillery Base) remains the primary intelligence concern. The lack of activity at this GRAU depot suggests that a large-scale munitions load-out has already been completed, with assets likely staged at launch platforms.
Information Warfare: The claim that the IAEA is assisting RU in targeting UA energy infrastructure is a significant escalation in hybrid operations, likely designed to delegitimize international monitors and provide "pretextual cover" for the next major strike wave.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Personnel Morale: High-profile awards (Order of Liberty) are being used to maintain the "Memory and Resistance" narrative, particularly focusing on athletes and cultural figures affected by the war.
Maneuver Warfare: UAF maintains the initiative in "encounter battles" near Pokrovsk, demonstrating superior tactical agility compared to the more rigid RU "Vostok" formations.
Information environment / disinformation
Narrative Tracking: RU media is currently balancing domestic policy updates (internal financial regulations) with aggressive propaganda regarding Zelenskyy’s perceived weakness.
Energy Sector Disinfo: The director of energy programs at the Razumkov Center is being cited by RU sources to claim IAEA complicity. This is a classic "reflexive control" tactic aimed at causing friction between Kyiv and international organizations.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued tactical UAV strikes against administrative and logistical nodes in the northern border regions. RU forces will likely continue to monitor UAF maneuvers in the Pokrovsk sector without significant counter-offensive pushes until the next missile wave.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massed, multi-domain missile and UAV strike originating from the "quiet" GRAU depots, targeting the national power grid during the current -27°C temperature trough to achieve maximum systemic failure.
Decision Point: If SAR data or HUMINT confirms movement at the 260th GRAU backfill arsenal, a strike is imminent (1-4 hours).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] Confirmation of current status/location of munitions transferred from the 260th GRAU base.
[MEDIUM] BDA of the Novgorod-Siverskyi administrative building to determine if specific communication or command nodes were targeted.
[CRITICAL] Monitoring for Iranian cargo aircraft arrivals in RU/Occupied Crimea following TASS reports on US-Iran "mediation."
