Situation Update (1407 UTC, Feb 13, 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- New UAV Ingress (Zaporizhzhia): At 1351Z, UAF Air Force reported Russian UAVs entering Zaporizhzhia airspace from the east, expanding the loitering munition threat beyond the Sumy/Rivne axes (AFU Air Force, 1351Z, HIGH).
- Geneva Delegation Formalized: NSDC Secretary Rustem Umerov announced the Ukrainian delegation for Feb 17-18 talks, including top security officials. Russia is confirmed to send at least 15 delegates (ASTRA/TASS, 1340-1348Z, HIGH).
- European Nuclear Pivot: CDU leader Friedrich Merz (incorrectly identified as Chancellor in some UA sources) and French President Macron have initiated confidential talks on European nuclear deterrence, signaling a shift in security architecture (RBK-UA/Sternenko, 1346-1349Z, HIGH).
- RU AD Suppression (Dnipropetrovsk): Russian "Archangel Spetsnaz" claims a Lancet loitering munition destroyed a UAF "Buk" SAM system in the Dnipropetrovsk region (Archangel Spetsnaz, 1346Z, UNCONFIRMED/LOW).
- Internal Security Breach (Russia): The FSB detained an MVD Lieutenant Colonel in Magnitogorsk for allegedly selling database access to Ukrainian intelligence, indicating persistent vulnerabilities in RU domestic C2/Security (Dnevnik Desantnika, 1346Z, MEDIUM).
- RU Equipment Failure: Visual evidence emerged of Russian military helmets (sourced via civilian retail) shattering upon impact, revealing substandard plaster-like construction (Shef Hayabusa, 1347Z, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Zaporizhzhia Sector:
The sector has transitioned to an active air threat status. UAVs approaching from the east suggest a coordinated effort to pressure southern energy hubs or monitor UAF troop movements near the line of contact. This follows earlier reports of UAVs in Rivne and Sumy, indicating a multi-vector "shaping" operation.
Dnipropetrovsk Sector:
Potential degradation of localized air defense if the reported Lancet strike on a "Buk" system is verified. This sector is critical for protecting logistics lines feeding the Donetsk front.
Donetsk Sector (Kostyantynivka/Pokrovsk):
Kinetic intensity remains high. While no new terrain changes are reported in the last 60 minutes, the 225th Regiment's capture of Russian personnel (1343Z) suggests successful localized counter-infiltration or defensive stands against Russian "Center" group assaults.
Enemy analysis (threat assessment)
Tactical Changes & Adaptations:
- Diversified UAV Vectoring: Russia is now simultaneously operating UAV corridors from the North (Sumy), West (Rivne/Sarny), and East (Zaporizhzhia). This suggests a saturation strategy designed to force UAF to choose between protecting front-line assets and critical rear infrastructure.
- Logistics Fratricide: The use of substandard civilian-sourced gear (helmets) indicates continued strain on the Russian MoD's formal procurement chains, forcing units to rely on vulnerable private marketplaces (e.g., Wildberries).
Command & Control (C2):
- Security Leaks: The arrest of Lt. Col. Afonasenko for data selling highlights an ongoing "insider threat" problem within the Russian MVD, likely being exploited by UAF SIGINT/HUMINT for targeting.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Diplomatic & Force Posture:
- Geneva Readiness: The inclusion of high-ranking security officials in the Geneva delegation suggests Ukraine will prioritize "security first" frameworks (ceasefires, buffer zones, AD guarantees) over purely political concessions.
- Frontline Morale: Successful prisoner captures by the 225th Regiment provide valuable intelligence on Russian unit composition (specifically the 127th Regiment) and help counter RU narratives of Ukrainian "manpower desperation."
Information environment / disinformation
- Chancellor Identity Confusion: Multiple Ukrainian channels (RBK-UA, Sternenko) are referring to Friedrich Merz as the "German Chancellor." While Merz is a leading political figure (CDU), Olaf Scholz remains Chancellor. This may be a translational error or a reflection of perceived shifts in German power dynamics; regardless, it risks undermining the credibility of UA reporting in international circles.
- Economic Warfare: Russian state media is amplifying Bloomberg reports on European industrial decline (1347Z) to create a "cost of support" crisis within EU member states.
- Telegram Instability: Continued reports of "Telegram barely breathing" from both UA and RU milbloggers suggest potential state-level throttling or systemic technical issues affecting real-time tactical reporting.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
Expect a surge in loitering munition strikes across the "Zaporizhzhia-Dnipropetrovsk-Sumy" arc tonight. The target set likely includes AD radar arrays to capitalize on the alleged destruction of the "Buk" system.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
Utilizing the multi-directional UAV ingress (including the Western bypass via Sarny) to conduct a "pincer" missile strike on Kyiv's remaining energy substations during the peak of the -27°C cold snap, aiming for a total blackout.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [PRIORITY] Confirm the operational status of AD assets in Dnipropetrovsk following the reported Lancet strike.
- [HIGH] Verify the specific model and manufacture batch of the failed Russian helmets to assess the scale of the equipment quality crisis.
- [MEDIUM] Monitor the "Merz-Macron" nuclear talks for specific mentions of "security guarantees" that could impact the Feb 17 Geneva negotiations.
//ANALYSIS ENDS//
