Situation Update (0737 UTC, Feb 13, 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- Active KAB Sorties: Russian tactical aviation has launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) targeting Northern Kharkiv (0724Z), Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk regions (0731Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
- Ongoing UAV Threat: Residual Russian UAVs from the overnight wave are tracking west across Northern Zhytomyr and Rivne regions (0715Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
- Civilian Casualties Confirmed: A Shahed strike in Kramatorsk killed three brothers (ages 8, 19, and 19) and wounded two others; a separate strike in Zaporizhzhia killed one woman (0710Z/0732Z, STERNENKO/ASTRA, HIGH).
- Belgorod Camouflage Ban: Governor Gladkov has ordered civilians in border settlements (25km zone) to cease wearing camouflage/military-style clothing to avoid being targeted by UAF strikes (0721Z, TASS, HIGH).
- Southern River Operations: UA Border Guard (DPSU) drones successfully interdicted a Russian boat on an icy river and destroyed ground-based communication infrastructure (0726Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH).
- Strategic Planning: UA Ministry of Defense presented a formalized 2026 defense plan/goals to partners during the "Ramstein" summit (0716Z, UA Operations, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Zhytomyr/Rivne):
The airspace remains contested. While the main UAV wave (154 units) has largely been processed (111 intercepts), "leakers" are still moving west toward Rivne. Northern Kharkiv is currently under heavy KAB (glide bomb) pressure, likely targeting tactical reserves or logistics.
Donetsk/Pokrovsk Sector:
The situation remains critical following Russian claims of entering Hryshyne (per previous sitrep). New data shows Russian "Vostok" Group (14th Guards Brigade) focusing on counter-drone operations, claiming the destruction of heavy Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" style hexacopters. UA units near Pokrovsk are actively fundraising for vehicle repairs, indicating high mechanical attrition due to muddy terrain and intense operational tempo (0732Z).
Southern/Zaporizhzhia Sector:
Riverine operations are ongoing despite ice. Russian forces are attempting to utilize small craft for infiltration or logistics, but are being successfully interdicted by UA FPV drones. Damage to a civilian auto salon in Odesa confirms Shahed impacts within the city limits.
Russian Border/Rear (Belgorod/Crimea):
The Belgorod governor’s directive against civilian camouflage is a significant admission of UA reconnaissance-strike effectiveness. It suggests that UA forces are effectively using visual signatures to identify and strike Russian personnel, forcing the RU administration to de-conflict civilian and military silhouettes. In Crimea, the FSB continues "counter-terror" raids (0735Z), likely aimed at suppressing local dissent or pro-Ukrainian cells.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Tactical Transition: After the overnight mass UAV wave, RU has transitioned to tactical aviation (KABs) and regional ballistic/cruise threats. This "phased" approach aims to keep UA Air Defense (AD) in a state of perpetual engagement.
- Logistical Resilience: RU MoD is highlighting the 20th Guards Army’s signalmen, emphasizing their ability to maintain C2 despite UA strikes on infrastructure. This aligns with recent UA drone footage showing successful hits on RU comms towers (0726Z).
- Human Resources: RU mil-bloggers are beginning to warn of a "psychologist shortage" for returning veterans (0715Z). This indicates the scale of psychological attrition within RU ranks, which may impact long-term force generation and social stability.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Deep Interdiction: UA continues to use FPV drones to strike the "last mile" of RU logistics, including boats and communication relays.
- Strategic Diplomacy: The presentation of a "clear plan" for 2026 at Ramstein suggests Ukraine is moving toward a more sustainable, multi-year defensive posture with predictable resource requirements.
- Morale Management: Platoon commanders are emphasizing "operational focus" over "emotional hatred," signaling a move toward professionalization and disciplined combat work (0716Z).
Information environment / disinformation
- Diplomatic Undermining: RU sources are aggressively framing UA's diplomatic efforts (specifically Zelensky's interview with The Atlantic) as an "imitation of peace" (0733Z). This is likely an attempt to sour Western sentiment ahead of the Munich Security Conference.
- Western Destabilization: RU state media is amplifying US domestic issues (RFK Jr. comments, South Carolina shooting) and UK recruitment failures to portray Western supporters as being in "chaos" (0732Z/0735Z).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Continued KAB strikes across the frontline (Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnipro) to exploit the 1.5km gap created near Pokrovsk. UAVs currently in the west will target energy or transport infrastructure in Zhytomyr/Rivne.
- Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): A coordinated ballistic strike on Dnipro or Kharkiv while AD systems are focused on intercepting the current KAB/UAV sorties.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [HIGH] Determine the impact of the KAB strikes in Dnipropetrovsk; assess if RU is expanding the glide-bomb range toward deeper logistics hubs.
- [MEDIUM] Monitor the status of the "MAX" messenger migration to see if it affects RU tactical response times or interceptable communications.
- [LOW] Verify the scale of the "Niger-France" conflict declaration reported by WarGonzo; assess if this will lead to a diversion of Russian/Wagner resources from the Ukrainian theater to the Sahel.
//ANALYSIS ENDS//
