Situation Update (0407 UTC, Feb 13, 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- Kyiv/Zhytomyr Incursion: (0351Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH) One-Way Attack (OWA) UAV has transited northern Kyiv Oblast and is now on a westerly course toward Zhytomyr Oblast.
- Southern Maritime Threat: (0354Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH) A new UAV has been detected originating from the Black Sea, tracking toward Odesa Oblast.
- Rostov Counter-UAV Operations: (0345Z, TASS/Gov. Slyusar, HIGH) Russian authorities claim to have repelled UAV attacks across six districts in Rostov Oblast; no casualties reported.
- Zaporizhzhia Alert Clearance: (0400Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH) The air raid alert in the Zaporizhzhia region has been cancelled following earlier KAB/UAV threats.
- Tactical Logistics Innovation: (0405Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM) Russian "Vostok" grouping is confirmed utilizing "Mangus" heavy hexacopters for frontline resupply (ammunition, water, rations) to assault units, likely to bypass frozen terrain obstacles.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kyiv/Zhytomyr/Chernihiv):
The aerial threat previously identified in Chernihiv (0318Z) has successfully penetrated the northern Kyiv air defense zone and is maintaining a steady westward vector toward Zhytomyr. This suggests a targeted strike profile against western infrastructure or a "probing" maneuver to map AD response times along the northern border.
Southern Sector (Odesa/Zaporizhzhia):
A multi-axis threat persists. While the immediate danger to Zaporizhzhia has subsided (alert cleared at 0400Z), a new maritime-launched UAV vector is targeting Odesa. This confirms a sustained effort to fix UAF mobile fire groups (MFGs) along the coastline.
Donetsk Sector (Pokrovsk Axis):
Building on the 24h context of Russian infantry using frozen rivers to flank UAF positions, the "Vostok" grouping has transitioned to "drone-bridge" logistics. The use of "Mangus" hexacopters for "last-mile" delivery indicates an adaptation to the -27°C environment, where traditional wheeled/tracked logistics may be vulnerable to both weather and FPV interdiction.
Russian Rear (Rostov):
The reports of UAV activity in six districts of Rostov suggest a widening of the UAF counter-logistics campaign. Following successful strikes in Komi and Volgograd (Daily Report), Rostov represents a critical node for the Southern Grouping's sustainment.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Course of Action (COA) Adaptation: The integration of heavy lift drones ("Mangus") for frontline sustainment suggests the Russian military is attempting to maintain offensive tempo despite extreme cold. This reduces the footprint of logistics convoys and makes interdiction more difficult for UAF artillery.
- Aerial Saturation: The timing of the Rostov incursions (0345Z) and the renewed Odesa vector (0354Z) suggests a reciprocal "strike-and-counterstrike" cycle, with both sides attempting to saturate regional AD.
- Capabilities: Russian forces are demonstrating improved thermal-equipped ISR for nighttime logistics coordination, as evidenced by footage from the "Vostok" grouping.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Deep Strike Capability: The confirmed activity in Rostov Oblast demonstrates that UAF retains the initiative to strike Russian interior logistics hubs despite the heavy focus on domestic AD.
- Air Defense Posture: UAF Air Force continues to provide high-fidelity, real-time tracking of OWA UAVs, successfully managing the transition of threats across regional commands (North to West).
Information environment / disinformation
- Logistics Narrative: Pro-Russian channels are heavily promoting the "humanitarian" and "innovative" side of their drone operations (supplying "water and coffee" to soldiers), likely an attempt to counter reports of high attrition and poor conditions in the -27°C weather.
- Damage Control: TASS/Rostov official reporting emphasizes "no casualties," a standard framing to minimize the perceived impact of UAF deep strikes on domestic Russian stability.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- Most Likely COA (MLCOA): The UAV currently heading for Zhytomyr will likely target energy or transport infrastructure within the next 45–60 minutes. Continued maritime-based drone launches against Odesa are expected through dawn to exploit low-light conditions.
- Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): The "Mangus" drone logistics are a precursor to a localized "Vostok" grouping assault on the Pokrovsk axis, utilizing the improved supply situation to launch a high-intensity push across frozen terrain while UAF is focused on the multi-region air threat.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [HIGH] Technical specifications and payload capacity of the "Mangus" hexacopter to determine the scale of Russian drone-based resupply.
- [MEDIUM] Assessment of the damage in Rostov's six districts—independent satellite or SIGINT verification required to move beyond TASS "no damage" claims.
- [MEDIUM] Tracking of the "Odesa" UAV to determine if it is a standard Shahed-variant or a new maritime-launched tactical platform.
//ANALYSIS ENDS//
