Mykolaiv OWA UAV Threat: (0217Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH) A Shahed-type OWA UAV was detected east of Voskresenske, Mykolaiv Oblast, moving on a north-western trajectory.
Kharkiv Artillery Intensification: (0215Z, RU Source, MEDIUM) The 288th Artillery Brigade (1st Guards Tank Army) is actively utilizing 2S5 Giatsint-S self-propelled howitzers in the Kharkiv direction.
Zaporizhzhia Tactical Engagement: (0212Z, TASS/RU MoD, MEDIUM) Russian "Vostok" grouping UAVs conducted thermal strikes against UAF vehicles, claiming to disrupt a counterattack.
Interdiction of MedEvac: (0233Z, RU Source, MEDIUM) "Center" grouping forces targeted UAF infantry and an evacuation vehicle near a railway track in winter conditions (Location UNCONFIRMED, likely Donetsk sector).
Operational picture (by sector)
Kharkiv Sector (North):
Russian forces have increased artillery fire density. The deployment of the 288th Artillery Brigade (1st GTA) using 2S5 Giatsint-S suggests a focus on long-range suppression of UAF defensive positions or counter-battery fire. The 1st GTA’s involvement indicates a high-priority effort to stabilize or push the northern flank.
Zaporizhzhia Sector (South):
Following the 0157Z KAB strikes, the "Vostok" grouping is now employing thermal-capable UAVs for night-time interdiction. Russian claims of a "thwarted counterattack" suggest that UAF forces are attempting to maneuver despite the extreme cold (-27°C), likely seeking to exploit gaps in the Russian line created by the freezing of water obstacles.
Donetsk Sector (East):
The "Center" grouping continues to focus on logistical and evacuation routes. Footage of strikes against an evacuation vehicle on a railway track highlights a Russian tactical emphasis on degrading UAF casualty evacuation (CASEVAC) and personnel rotation capabilities. The use of rail corridors as maneuver or evacuation paths remains a high-risk necessity for UAF under current snow-clogged road conditions.
Mykolaiv/Southern Sector:
Active air defense engagement is expected as OWA UAVs penetrate the Voskresenske area. The NW heading suggests potential targets in central Ukraine or the Kryvyi Rih/Uman axis.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation to Cold: Russian forces are prioritizing thermal-equipped UAVs (Vostok/Center groupings) to identify UAF heat signatures against the -27°C background. This is particularly effective against idling vehicles and personnel in heated dugouts.
Sustainment Interdiction: Recent footage indicates a deliberate Russian pattern of targeting evacuation and medical assets (UNCONFIRMED as intentional, but persistent in result), likely intended to degrade UAF front-line morale and force sustainment.
Artillery Mobility: The use of 2S5 Giatsint-S in Kharkiv emphasizes "shoot-and-scoot" tactics to avoid UAF counter-battery fire, which is hindered by the deep snow and freezing temperatures.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Offensive Maneuvers: Despite Russian claims of disruption, UAF activity in Zaporizhzhia indicates an ongoing effort to maintain the initiative and prevent the enemy from fortifying positions along the frozen front.
Air Defense Posture: UAF Air Force is tracking OWA UAVs in real-time, maneuvering mobile fire groups to intercept low-altitude threats over Mykolaiv.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian "Surgical" Narrative: Russian MoD sources (TASS, Colonelcassad) are heavily pushing high-definition UAV and artillery footage to project an image of technical superiority and "total" surveillance over UAF movements.
Internal Russian Friction: Unusually, RU "Z-channels" (NgP Razvedka) have shared content criticizing the Russian judicial system's unprofessionalism regarding a citizen's passport. This suggests minor domestic social friction within the ultra-nationalist community, though it lacks immediate military impact.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued OWA UAV penetrations toward central Ukraine to trigger air defense depletion. Persistent artillery and KAB strikes in Kharkiv and Donetsk to fix UAF units in place while Russian infantry attempts small-unit "ice crossings" on frozen riverbeds.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A concentrated Russian assault in the Zaporizhzhia sector supported by thermal-equipped UAVs and KABs, aimed at seizing key intersections before the 48-hour energy restoration window (TPP-5/6) allows for improved UAF logistical throughput.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[HIGH] Precise location of the railway track strike by the "Center" grouping to assess the security of primary UAF evacuation routes.
[MEDIUM] Confirmation of current UAF counter-offensive status in Zaporizhzhia following the reported UAV strikes.
[MEDIUM] Status of UAF CASEVAC assets and the impact of Russian "Center" grouping interdiction on medical logistics.
