UAV Vector Expansion: (1846Z, PS ZSU, HIGH) Loitering munitions (Shaheds) have progressed into northern Rivne Oblast, maintaining a western heading toward critical infrastructure.
Threat to Kyiv/Boryspil: (1859Z, PS ZSU, HIGH) A secondary UAV wave is transiting Cherkasy Oblast, specifically targeting the Boryspil district (Kyiv region).
Reported Territorial Loss - Drobysheve: (1851Z, Slivochny Kapriz, MEDIUM) Russian forces claim a 1.5km penetration into eastern Drobysheve (Lyman axis) following heavy artillery preparation.
Alleged HIMARS Attrition - Kharkiv: (1842Z, Colonelcassad, LOW/UNCONFIRMED) Russian sources claim the destruction of a HIMARS launcher near Kharkiv via a dual Iskander-M strike. No visual confirmation provided.
Strategic Communication: (1859Z, RBK-Ukraine/The Atlantic, HIGH) President Zelenskyy signaled a hardline stance against "bad peace deals," reinforcing that Ukraine will not accept defeat.
Internal Friction - UAF: (1851Z, Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM) Verified footage shows a UAF service member criticizing local commanders for alleged corruption involving illegal logging, suggesting localized discipline or morale issues in unspecified units.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The battlefield geometry is currently characterized by a multi-axis UAV assault intended to saturate Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) across both the northern (Rivne) and central (Kyiv) corridors.
Battlefield Geometry: The frontline has shifted slightly westward in the Lyman sector (Drobysheve). The Russian focus appears to be an attempt to bypass the Siverskyi Donets defensive line by pushing toward the rail-head at Lyman.
Weather: The extreme cold (-27°C) continues to stabilize the ground, facilitating Russian mechanized movement in the Drobysheve/Lyman sector but increasing the thermal signature of UAF heaters and equipment, making them vulnerable to RU ISR.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Tactical Shift: The reported Iskander strike on a HIMARS unit (if confirmed) indicates that Russian "reconnaissance-strike complexes" (RSC) are prioritizing high-value mobile assets in the Kharkiv border region to suppress Ukrainian cross-border fires into Belgorod.
Offensive Operations: Russian "Grad" MLRS activity remains high in the Krasnolimansky direction (1900Z), providing suppressive fire for the reported 1.5km infantry advance into Drobysheve.
Asset Management: The use of dual Iskander-M missiles for a single target (HIMARS) reflects a high-expenditure tactical doctrine aimed at ensuring the destruction of Western-supplied precision systems.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Air Defense Posture: UAF AD is currently tracking two distinct Shahed groups. The western group (Rivne) is likely targeting energy or rail logistics connecting to the Polish border. The Boryspil-bound group (1859Z) poses a direct threat to the capital’s secondary thermal and transport hubs.
Operational Constraints: A viral video (1851Z) indicates that internal corruption and command friction remain a point of contention for frontline troops, specifically regarding the misappropriation of resources (timber for fortifications).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Digital Domain: Pavel Durov’s public comments on the slowing of Telegram in Russia (1847Z) suggest the Russian state is tightening control over the primary information channel used for both mil-blogging and civilian coordination.
Strategic Narrative: Zelenskyy’s interview with The Atlantic (1859Z) is a calculated move to address domestic morale and international "war fatigue" by dismissing any Russian "peace plans" (e.g., the rumored Bloomberg/Dmitriev plan, 1848Z) that involve territorial concessions.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): UAVs will impact targets in Rivne and the Boryspil district between 2000Z and 2200Z. Russian forces in the Lyman sector will attempt to consolidate their 1.5km gain in Drobysheve before dawn to establish new fire positions.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Russian forces utilize the suppressive effect of the Iskander strikes in Kharkiv to launch a localized cross-border incursion or a major mechanized push toward Lyman, exploiting the "death freeze" to cross previously marshy terrain.
Timeline:
T+2 hours: Active AD engagements in Western and Central Ukraine.
T+6 hours: Potential for secondary RU missile strikes (Kalibr/Iskander) following UAV-based AD probing.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
[CRITICAL] Verify the status of the HIMARS launcher in Kharkiv. Cross-reference ELINT for Iskander launch points and GEOINT for "Iskander impact" craters in the reported sector.
[HIGH] Confirm the extent of the RU advance into Drobysheve. Is the 1.5km claim a sustainable penetration or a temporary gray-zone movement?
[MEDIUM] Assess the impact of Telegram’s technical slowdown on UAF horizontal communication and civilian early-warning systems in the border regions.
