Kyiv Energy Recovery Timeline: (1430Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH) PM Shmyhal confirms TPP-5 requires 24 hours and TPP-6 requires approximately 48 hours for restoration following last night’s strikes.
Russian Hydrocarbon Degradation: (1437Z, ASTRA/Reuters, HIGH) Lukoil’s Volgograd Refinery has officially suspended oil processing operations following the February 11 UAV strike.
Deep Strike Expansion (Komi): (1438Z, Operation Z, MEDIUM) Reports indicate a new UAV attack and resulting fire at an oil refinery in Ukhta, Komi Republic (approx. 1,500km from UA border).
Ballistic Missile Threat: (1435Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH) Warning issued for ballistic missile use from the eastern direction.
Tactical ISR/Strike UAVs: (1451Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH) Ongoing UAV activity on the Dnipropetrovsk/Kharkiv oblast border, moving west.
Internal Health Security (Kyiv): (1439Z, Operativnyi ZSU, MEDIUM) Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) deputies ordered to undergo testing following an outbreak of an acute gastrointestinal viral infection.
Zaporizhzhia Border Casualties: (1430Z, Voin DV, LOW/UNCONFIRMED) Russian sources claiming losses within the UAF 95th Brigade near the Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk border.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Operational Picture)
The operational tempo remains high despite extreme cold, with both sides pivoting toward strategic infrastructure attrition.
Kyiv Energy Hub: Restoration of TPP-5 and TPP-6 is the critical path for maintaining the capital's stability. Shmyhal’s timeline (24–48h) indicates that the damage, while significant, did not result in total turbine hall destruction.
Deep Rear Operations: UAF-linked strikes have achieved a significant kinetic effect on the Russian energy sector. The shutdown of the Volgograd refinery and the reported strike in Ukhta (Komi) demonstrate a widening of the target set to include extreme-range strategic assets.
Frontline Dynamics: Kinetic activity is concentrated in the Pokrovsk axis (SBU Alpha drone strikes confirmed at 1440Z) and the Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk border region.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions: The VKS continues to project presence with high-end airframes (fighter jets "Pavel" and "Georgy" noted at 1445Z), likely supporting the ballistic threat from the east.
Logistics & Sustainment: The BMW China directive to "categorically oppose" car exports to Russia (1434Z) signals a tightening of the dual-use supply chain through third-party intermediaries.
Manpower: Evidence of "desperation recruitment" continues; bailiffs in Tomsk are reportedly coercing homeless individuals with alimony debt into military contracts (1454Z). This suggests ongoing difficulty in meeting mobilization quotas through traditional means.
Command & Control: While tactical comms were previously reported as degraded (Daily Report), high-level corruption cases (Fesco vice-president, local officials in Chelyabinsk/Nizhny Novgorod) indicate a period of internal "cleansing" or redistribution of assets within the RU administrative apparatus (1441Z, 1449Z, 1453Z).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Force Posture: Special operations (SBU Alpha) are actively degrading Russian maneuver elements in the Pokrovsk sector using FPV/strike drones (1440Z).
Readiness Challenges: An acute viral outbreak among MPs in Kyiv (1439Z) presents a minor but notable risk to legislative continuity and administrative C2 if the infection spreads to key ministry staff.
Defensive Resilience: Energy repair crews are prioritized for the TPP-5/6 restoration, operating under high threat levels of follow-on strikes.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
RU Psychological Ops: Pro-Russian channels (Voin DV) are aggressively using casualty imagery (95th Brigade) to undermine morale in the Zaporizhzhia sector (1430Z).
Hybrid Narratives: Russian state-aligned channels (NgP RaZVedka) continue to mock international sporting events, framing the 2026 Olympics through a lens of cultural grievance and domestic "superiority" (1453Z).
Internal Distraction: RU state media is amplifying high ЖКХ (utility) bills and domestic corruption cases to channel public frustration toward "corrupt officials" rather than the war effort (1441Z, 1504Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Within the next 6-12 hours, RU will launch a wave of Shahed-type UAVs or ballistic missiles (1435Z threat) specifically timed to disrupt the 24-hour repair window for Kyiv’s TPP-5.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Exploiting the deep freeze and potential UAF focus on energy restoration, RU forces attempt a concentrated mechanized push across the frozen Siverskyi Donets or toward the Dnipropetrovsk border to capitalize on claimed 95th Brigade vulnerabilities.
Timeline: Expected escalation in aerial activity between 121900Z and 130300Z.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirmation of the Ukhta (Komi) refinery strike. Distance makes this a potential milestone in UAF long-range capabilities.
[HIGH] Verify the scale of the viral infection in Kyiv. Determine if this is a natural outbreak or a potential localized sabotage/biological incident targeting government C2.
[MEDIUM] Monitor Russian movement in the Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk border area to confirm or refute "Voin DV" claims of UAF 95th Brigade attrition.
[MEDIUM] Assessment of weather impact on the "Pavel" and "Georgy" fighter jet operations (low cloud ceiling/icing conditions).
