Deep Strike (Komi Republic): (1302Z-1322Z, ASTRA/SBU/General Staff, HIGH) UAF/SBU drones successfully struck the Lukoil-Ukhtaneftepererabotka refinery in Komi, approximately 1,750km from the Ukrainian border.
IRBM "Oreshnik" Threats Cleared: (1306Z-1312Z, Two Majors/UAF Air Force, HIGH) Two separate ballistic/Oreshnik launch warnings issued today have been declared false alarms; "all clear" issued at 1307Z.
Force Restructuring: (1317Z, UA Ground Forces, HIGH) The International Legion is being formally integrated into the assault formations of the Ukrainian Ground Forces to standardize C2 and equipage.
Sumy/Kharkiv Escalation: (1302Z-1320Z, UAF Air Force/Colonelcassad, MEDIUM) Russian tactical aviation launched multiple waves of KABs (guided bombs) at Sumy and Northern Kharkiv; RU sources claim localized advances southeast of Konstantinovka.
Russian Internal Purge: (1305Z-1316Z, TASS, HIGH) High-ranking officials, including the former director of the Shipbuilding Dept and Fesco transport group executives, have been detained for embezzlement/misappropriation.
Rear Security: (1322Z, SBU/RBK-UA, HIGH) SBU apprehended an individual in Lviv accused of coordinating Russian missile strikes on military infrastructure to settle gambling debts.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Operational Picture)
The operational tempo is characterized by Ukrainian long-range strategic interdiction and Russian tactical aviation pressure in the north and east.
Northern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv): A significant increase in Russian activity is noted. RU forces are utilizing KAB strikes to support ground pushes toward Andreevka and Malaya Korchakovka. This sector is currently a high-intensity focal point for Russian tactical aviation.
Deep Strike Operations: The strike on the Lukoil refinery in Komi (1,750km) represents a critical expansion of UAF's strike envelope, demonstrating the ability to hit Russian energy infrastructure well beyond previously established "safe" zones.
Environmental Factors: Snow cover remains heavy across the theater and into the Russian interior (Komi/Moscow), as confirmed by recent visual intelligence (1322Z). This continues to favor thermal-equipped drone operations for both sides.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions: The Russian VKS (Air Force) is maintaining a high sortie rate of KAB-equipped tactical aircraft targeting the Sumy and Kharkiv axes. This is likely intended to fix Ukrainian reserves away from the Donbas.
Logistics & Sustainment: The strike on the Ukhta refinery targets the deep-rear fuel supply chain. Concurrently, the arrests of senior shipbuilding and transport (Fesco) officials suggest significant friction or "cleansing" within the Russian defense-industrial base (DIB) and logistics C2.
Tactical Course of Action: RU forces are attempting to exploit the "Ice Armor" conditions (frozen rivers) to conduct positional advances in the Sumy sector.
Counter-Intelligence: The detention of a collaborator in Lviv confirms that Russia continues to leverage "low-profile" assets (vulnerable civilians with debts) for terminal guidance and BDA (Battle Damage Assessment).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
Force Posture: The integration of the International Legion into Ground Forces assault units is a strategic shift. It indicates a move to transform volunteer elements into standardized, high-readiness shock troops, likely to address the need for specialized clearing operations in frozen terrain.
Combat Effectiveness: The 413th Separate Drone Systems Battalion ("Raid") and SBU "Alpha" teams continue to demonstrate high technical proficiency in both frontline interdiction and deep-strike mission profiles.
Resource Management: While the 1,750km strike shows high-end capability, the dependence on precise intelligence for these missions is paramount.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
Psychological Operations: The recurring "Oreshnik" (IRBM) false alarms are creating a "cry wolf" effect. While both sides have debunked the latest warnings, the repeated activation/deactivation of alarms serves to maintain high stress levels among the civilian population and air defense crews.
German Political Climate: Russian channels are amplifying a DW poll showing 58% German support for Merz-Putin negotiations. This is being used to undermine the "Pistorius" narrative of long-term EU/military support for Ukraine.
Domestic Narrative: Russian state media is promoting cultural normalcy (musicals in Moscow) to distract from the high civilian casualty rates reported by CIT (2,919 deaths in 2025).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will continue KAB saturation of Sumy and Northern Kharkiv to support localized infantry "probing" attacks. Shahed-type UAVs currently over Dnipropetrovsk (1302Z) will likely target energy or transit hubs in Central Ukraine within the next 4 hours.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Russian forces exploit the psychological fatigue from false "Oreshnik" warnings to launch a genuine, unannounced ballistic strike on Kyiv or a major western hub (Lviv) while air defenses are focused on the drone swarms.
Timeline: Expect heightened air activity over the Sumy-Kharkiv-Dnipropetrovsk triangle through 122200Z FEB.
Intelligence Gaps & Collection Requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the damage assessment of the Lukoil refinery in Komi. Determine if primary distillation units were neutralized, impacting long-term fuel production.
[HIGH] Identify the specific units involved in the Russian push southeast of Konstantinovka (Sumy direction) to determine if these are fresh reserves or repositioned units.
[MEDIUM] Monitor Russian internal communications for fallout from the Fesco/Minpromtorg arrests. This may signal a wider crackdown on the naval/logistics supply chain.
[LOW] Verify the source of the "Oreshnik" false alarms. Determine if these were technical malfunctions, intentional UAF spoofs, or Russian psychological play.
